A Media Guide: What you know that they don't
Lately I've noticed several threads that all go something like, "This media person thinks X but I think Y!" Seeing this and also knowing how mgobloggers like having lots of small threads even less than they like the opinions of media people, I thought I would try turning them all into one big thread.
The main benefit is for people who want to get some insight into the game that's outside of, or even contrary to, what the mainstream media is reporting.
A couple of the ideas below are drawn from this blog, some come from blogs like SBNation, but most of them come from someone who doesn't know that much about football (me), even though he's been watching it since he was a wee tyke waiting for Bo to throw his headset into the ground again so that his dad would laugh.
So, without further ado:
Advantages - Things the media missed that will help Michigan
Brandon Herron. Although he's not a safety that's coming back, Brandon Herron is a junior. And that means experience -- something the defense needs just as much as it needs deep-backs. Also, his return frees up Roh to play at DE and rush the QB like a hungry Rhino with rabies. Which leads us into....
Hitting Cousins on the Road (courtesy of this thread by brewandbluesaturdays). It turns out Kirk's numbers drop pretty reliably in road games. Check out last season's difference in his average per-game stats. HOME: 16/24.5 (60%) for 220 yds, .33 INT, 1.5 TD, and 4 wins out of 7. AWAY: 17/31.2 (54%) for 233.4 yds, 1 INT, 1.8 TD, and 2 wins out of 6. Some of this stems from a tendency for Cousins to make mistakes when under pressure. The combination of MSU's first true road game, the increased stadium noise, and the return of Herron bode well for Blue.
Denard Robinson. Okay, the media has said plenty on this front. But one thing they haven't brought up is his history (a short one, yes) against the Big Ten. Last year, Denard ran just fine over Big Ten defenses. Overall, he rushed for 351 yards, averaging 5.1 per carry. Much of that came against stalwart defenses like Iowa, Penn State, and Wisconsin; and, all while he couldn't pass. They knew he was going to run and still could do little to stop him. His average bumped up to 5.8 ypc against those three. Here's the other thing that often goes under the radar: Denard's pass-efficiency is now #3 in the country. So, guess what? He can throw now too.
Penalties and Turnovers. Yes, the media has pointed out how MSU is the most penalized team in the Big Ten (91st nationally) and ranked 8th in turnovers (67th nationally). They might even mention how well Michigan is doing: 5th in penalties (32nd nationally) and 3rd in turnovers (15th nationally). What they don't mention is that this is key to Michigan's defense doing anything. Although our defense has about the same strength as recycled tissue paper, its greatest only hope is for the opponent to make mistakes. By playing bend-dont-break and stopping the big plays, Michigan will force MSU to run as many plays as possible, hoping to increase the number of drive-ending penalties and turnovers they commit.
That Golden Dome. Despite being so early in the season, Michigan and State have one mutual opponent: Notre Dame. Of the two games, Michigan won theirs more convincingly. They did it on the road, and they didn't need a trick play in overtime.
Disadvantages - Things the media missed that will help State
Awash - Things the media thinks matter but don't
October 7th, 2010 at 8:28 PM ^
Fresh perspective...enjoyed the read. GO BLUE!
October 7th, 2010 at 8:29 PM ^
Pam Ward's favorite stat is TOP. In her opinion, TOP winner should always win the game.
October 7th, 2010 at 10:52 PM ^
October 7th, 2010 at 8:30 PM ^
Go Blue
October 7th, 2010 at 8:33 PM ^
For being new, I think you did a fine job with this post. I enjoyed the read. +1
October 7th, 2010 at 8:42 PM ^
well articulated. Thanks for contributing.
October 7th, 2010 at 8:43 PM ^
I basically like that summary, but I continue to be amazed at the value people place on Herron. As far as I can see from UFRs, etc., he is a slight upgrade from J.B. and Demens. At what point in history has he consistently performed above "valuable reserve" level?
I still can't believe that Roh's presence at LB is all about Herron being injured. I think it's more about a strong belief (which may be ill-advised) in the three-man rush. The coaches have their three guys (RVB, Martin, and Banks), so Roh gets pushed back to the next row.
I'm glad Herron is back, but I haven't seen that he's a ton better than the alternatives (again, J.B. and Demens).
October 7th, 2010 at 9:14 PM ^
you bring up an interesting point about MSU listing 'smaller, faster' guys on the depth chart. It brings the conundrum - lots of people say the only way to stop Denard is to hit him hard and maybe hurt him, but with smaller guys, the odds of hitting him hard(er) decrease. RR has pointed it out a number of times - I'd rather have my QB hit by a defense back than a nose tackle and I'd rather have him prepared for the hit instead of standing in the pocket taking a really awkward tumble.
On the other hand, maybe these guys are Dilithium light and can catch him - but I doubt it.
PS - Between the grammer nazi's and the people with nothing better to do but mock every single post that isn't completely exceptional, A+, Denardworthy, I think lots of people are nervous about being the OP. This is a well written post with original content, so fuck them. What are they gonna do - make internet fun of you? Make your imaginary point total decrease?
October 7th, 2010 at 9:28 PM ^
Super job.
I sort of forgot about Denard's running in those Big Ten games last year. He moved us well against Iowa but the last pass is what stood out in my mind. Then the old brain had me believing that he did nothing in Big Ten games.
Incorrect. And he did it behind a line that was nowhere near as seasoned and healthy as this one.
October 7th, 2010 at 10:08 PM ^
I would plus 10 you on that post well done. I really believe our OL has the advantage over their DL. This game is not a shoot out it's a Michigan lock. MSU has not played this type of team speed yet especially speed on the lines, DL and OL.
October 7th, 2010 at 10:09 PM ^
I propose that 249 mgopoints be the min for new mgoboardposts.
October 7th, 2010 at 11:58 PM ^
You don't have to apologize, without user content blogs would not survive. If people don't like the length of your post, they don't have to read it. Or if they want to comment their praise or displeasure... well that is kind of the whole point isn't it?
October 8th, 2010 at 12:56 AM ^
Today as I was coming home from work, I was listening to Cinema Chat on WEMU and the WEMU radio guy (David Fair) said that Michigan will win because they have the Dude.....