MBB Recruiting Ranking (hypothetical)
A lot of you, me included, have been concerned with the lack of recruiting successes in the '15 and '16 cycles. This is exacerbated by strong classes by MSU and OSU. I thought it would interesting to see how the incoming transfer, potential recruits and the foreign prospect stack-up against other B1G teams.
I'm using 247 sports composite for rankings and the class calculator. Those without a 247 ranking I used a similar player in the '15 recruiting class with the presumed rankings below. For example, Raymond Spalding in place of Wagner. I'm making assumptions with the rankings, obviously, but I think I'm close to reality.
Committed
Moritz Wagner - regarded as a top 50 recruit if he was in American high school. That makes him a 4*, 98 points.
Transfer
Duncan Robinson - 6'8" shooter with experience and impressive statistics. I don't know, high 3*? ~150th, 90 pts.
Waiting on
Kenny Williams - 4*, 89th, 94 pts
Jaylin Brown - 5*, 3rd, 99 pts
If KW signs we will have roughly 49.95 pts in the team rankings. JB, 49.77 pts.
Current 2015 B1G recruiting rankings(247):
- MSU - 50.8
- OSU - 49.5
- Illinois - 48.09
- Indiana - 44.89
Teams could add more players, which means more points. In 2014 we had the 4th best recruiting class in the B1G according to 247 with 44.71 points. So, potentially better than last year based on rankings alone.
Class rankings for basketball, to me at least, are pointless because they're not relative to the size of the class and needs.
Like if you have one available scholarship, and that is filled by the number one overall player, you can't get a better class than that, but that wouldn't be reflected in the rankings.
Maybe he used Jaylin Brown's points instead of Jaylen Brown.
I'm not sure how these "team rankings" work, but I don't think KW would give us a higher score than Jaylen?
The points of Michigan's biggest recruit for next year, the guy who is coming back for his senior season?
With Beilein, rankings are not particularly relevent.
Once Beilein teaches players his system, "he can take his'n and beat your'n and take your'n and beat his'n".
MSU's class should be interesting to watch. While everyone will be focusing on the bigs, two top-25 guys, I'm more interested to see how McQuaid and Ahrens play. Beilein watched and recruited both of those guys for a long time before Izzo but, in the end, decided not to offer either of them. In fact, I think the timing was such that Beilein probably could've offered and gotten a commitment before Izzo had a chance to turn up the heat with them. I'm curious to see if that's something we end up regretting.
Of the two, I think Ahrens will end up being better. Both are great shooters and have a bit of bounce, but Ahrens is stronger and seems like he can end up being a Chris Kramer like player if he heals from his leg injury fully.
Izzo ruins all his white guys...
When Izzo was going to the discount bin, he also grabbed Bess, who Beilein expressed strong interest in for a while before moving elsewhere.
Honestly, I have to give Izzo some credit here. Following Beilein around and offering the guys he thinks he might want is a smart strategy. If you're going to piggy-back on scouting, do it from the best. I bet Ahrens, McQuaid, and Bess end up being pains in our butts.
...These good shooting wings also fit great around Nairns and their post players. MSU is going to be tough.
Did we not offer McQuaid? I thought he ended up at SMU but was offered by us along the way? Could be wrong - I do remember his name coming up a lot. More than Ahrens.
If they are typical Izzo players they will struggle and get yelled at a lot for the first 2 years, as any chance of finding a diamond in the rough and sending anyone unexpected to the NBA early is destroyed - along with their confidence. Then - like the Marines - he will build them back up by JR year and then they will be part of a "savvy experienced group of leaders" as seniors.
He talked about visiting last summer, but Beilein did not bring him in.
On what planet would Wagner be considered a high 4 star recruit?
On this one, where Rivals national analysts have said that he is?
Eric Bossi, lead analyst for Rivals (the site that ranks players on this planet), says he'd be ranked between 20-40 if he played in the States. But, alas, he plays abroad so they just give him a star-ranking but not a numerical ranking.
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Earth
the planet of shut your mouth when you talk about Michigan recruits... I think its located next to Uranus
someone transfers.
With Williams, there has been a lot of talk about him and UNC and until he actually visits here, I don't know if there's a huge chance he comes here. Once he does visit though, it seems like we may be the leader.
if you can get a guy like Brown you do it, no questions asked, but man, I can't help but think that Williams is the peice we kind of need more. He is a combo who can play point and bury the 3, and I don't think Spike is playing next year. With Levert back, Brown would make it Levert, Irvin, MAAR, Dawkins, Brown, and arguably Chatman all playing the same position with possibly no real backup to Walton.
If Brown comes, we have like a real possibility at a Final Four next year, but I also kind of think it may upset the balance of the roster and that it could result in some unfortunately attrition that may impede a collection of players who could contend for the Big Ten and for deep tourney runs for a few years. Good problem to have I guess.
Either one is a HUGE get for this program. Brown for the obvious immediate payoff and infusion of athleticism and talent. Williams for addressing the big roster need once Spike, Derrick, Caris, Zak all leave within the next 2 seasons. We've lived and died with freshman the last few years but it would be nice to... not do that. If Williams can apprentice for a year before jumping into a starting gig the following season it would be fantastic.
Rankings in college basketball seem way less relevant, especially given the fact that Michigan has maybe 2-3 spots available this year and next. The fact that MSU and OSU got good recruits hurts a bit, but at the same time a school like OSU losing a guy in a year hurts them way more than a guy who stays 4 years. So that means they'll have to find another guy next year to replace him, and so on and so on. So I'm less worried about any perceived weaknesses in recruiting (though with 15 and 16 not done yet it seems a little premature) given Beilein's desire to recruit 3-4 year recruits. I mean, his struggles are basically due to being too good at developing players and them leaving early.
They're just far more volatile from year to year based on numbers. Therefore, they require a multi-year look and consideration of context. True for football rankings too, but not as big of an issue.
Beilein's struggles in recruiting are not caused by early entry departures - they have come in spite of them. Surely, Kentucky illustrates how NBA production is a major factor in recruiting ability. Beilein's SUCCESS comes from being "too good" at development - His struggles have come because of not recruiting well enough (in 2014, generally, in 2013 in the frontcourt).
The idea that Beilein targets "3-4 year recruits" is just flat out incorrect. Beilein offer McGary, Booker, Looney, Harris, and a whole host of other 5-star kids that were projected by many to be one-and-done. This year he offered Dozier and is going hard after Brown. He wants those guys, just like any other coach. He's just not landing them (with the exception of McGary).
OSU and MSU seem to recruit top talent consistently, or at least more consistently that Michigan does, and Beilein still finds ways to beat them. He took an injury-ridden team that was down to a bunch of freshmen and walk-ons and beat up on OSU's team full of five-star recruits and arguably the best player in the country in D'Angelo Russell.
Beilein has got a system, and it works. Not saying that I wouldn't love to have a guy like Jaylen Brown on the team. Believe me, I would. But Beilein puts his players in position to win basketball games. He'll continue to do that whether he gets 5 star kids or not.
Beilein's a great coach and we saw him make the NCAA tournament with just one or two 4-star players (e.g., Sims, Harris, Morris) and a cast of replacement-level guys. He can get there again with a veteran version of the '14 team... But it was when he got a team full of NBA-caliber talent he had Final 4 caliber teams. Beilein's a wizard, but it's likely going to take recruiting superior to 2014 and 2015 to get back to that level.