Looking at projected playoff teams' performances against top offenses and defenses

Submitted by taistreetsmyhero on

I know that S&P+ rankings account for strength of opponent in their calculations for rankings, but I wanted to take a simplistic look at how the projected playoff teams fared against their hardest opponents thus far.

I am assuming the top 4 teams in this week's playoff standings will be Alabama, Clemson, Michigan, and Wahsington.

First, I looked at those teams' defensive performances against the top 3 S&P+ rated offenses that they faced. I tallied the points their opponents scored against their defenses (ignored special teams scores and defensive points against). Charts:

Def. S&P+ Best Opponent Off. S&P+ 2nd Best  3rd Best
CFP Top 4 Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against
1. Michigan 28 (PSU) 10 191 32 (CU) 21 325 58 (MD) 3 367
2. Alabama 9 (Ole Miss) 36 522 24 (USC) 3 194 27 (TAMU) 23 316
4. Clemson 1 (UL) 36 586 7 (FSU) 34 449 16 (AU) 13 262
12. Washington 10 (CAL) 27 362 14 (OR) 21 409 55 (UT) 24 376

 

Def. S&P+ Averages of 3 Best
CFP Top 4 Off. S&P+ Pts against D Yards against
1. Michigan 39.33 11.33 294.33
2. Alabama 20 20.67 344.00
4. Clemson 8 27.67 432.33
12. Washington 26.33 24.00 382.33

(Yellow=Michigan, Blue=Washington, Maroon=Alabama, Orange=Clemson)

Next I did the same thing for those teams' offensive performances against the top 3 S&P+ rated defenses that they faced. I again ignored points scored by the teams' defenses and special teams. Charts:

Off. S&P+ Best Opponent Def. S&P+ 2nd Best  3rd Best
CFP Top 4 Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained
3. Washington 17 (STAN) 44 424 35 (UT) 31 385 64 (RU!!!) 31 380
8. Michigan 3 (UW) 14 349 8 (CU) 38 397 15 (PSU) 49 515
12. Alabama 5 (LSU) 10 323 23 (USC) 45 465 29 (TENN) 35 594
20. Clemson 9 (UL) 42 507 13 (AU) 19 399 25 (BC) 49 508

 

Off. S&P+ Averages of 3 Best
CFP Top 4 Def. S&P+ Pts by Off. Yards gained
3. Washington 38.67 35.33 396.33
8. Michigan 8.67 33.67 420.33
12. Alabama 19.00 30.00 460.67
20. Clemson 15.67 36.67 471.33

(Blue=Washington, Maroon=Alabama, Orange=Clemson, Yellow=Michigan)

Discussion:

Defensively, it's interesting to see that the performances correlate so closely with the quality of opponents. This chart makes it abundantly clear that Michigan has not played an elite offensive opponent, especially compared to the other top teams. We've obviously handled every offense on our schedule, but the best teams we've faced have been good mostly because of their defenses (Wisconsin, Penn St, mostly Colorado). But I'd predict we give up closer to 30 against Ohio State than 10, and same goes for a potential playoff game against any of these offenses.

Regarding offense, there are some caveats that need to be addressed. First, Alabama lost the most points by far from defensive and special teams TDs. The defensive TDs don't really skew this analysis, but the special teams TDs probably do, as the offense very well could have gotten those yards and points. Second, Michigan definitely benefited in this quick and dirty analysis by playing a Penn St team that is now the #15 ranked defense while they were missing 8 defensive players.

With those caveats acknowledged, it's crazy how bad the Pac 12 is defensively compared to the Big 10. It's also interesting to see that these offenses are all very comparable in their peformances, with Clemson probably getting the edge on opponent adjusted performance.

At the end of the day, I think that Michigan has much to prove on defense as they haven't faced an offense that can compare to these other 3 teams. We'll obviously know more after the Ohio State game. Washington has the most to prove on both sides of the ball, but we already knew that because their SOS is atrocious. I think we can safely say that we know the most about Clemson, and that is that any playoff game against them will be a shoot out.

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DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^

The playoff-caliber team I would be most fearful of is Washington. I have confidence in our ability to stop the run and contain against Bama, OSU, Louisville, and Clemson. Hurts, Barrett, Jackson and Watson, in the pocket, against our secondary are all match-ups that we win. None of them are profficient-enough pocket passers to beat us for a whole game.

Browning is the only QB I actually fear standing in the pocket. Now whether or not he would have enough time to throw would be another issue. 

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DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2016 at 2:05 PM ^

You're hopeful they play well against us?

 

They are good because of Urban's system. Barrett is a mediocre passer. Our DL will demolish their OL. Weber is fine, not great, certainly no Zeke. They've got nobody in the mold of Michael Thomas or Jalen Marshall. From what I have seen their lone hope will be to get Samuel on the edge against us all day. Don Brown is no dumby and he will prepare for that. I am expecting a close Michigan win, but I would not be surprised if we pull away because our D totally shuts them down as Barrett is forced to throw more and more. 

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Steeveebr

November 7th, 2016 at 2:37 PM ^

I like good football.  I want to watch Michigan beat every team at it's best.  Always have.  2006 for instance is one of my most and least enjoyable experiences watching football.  Both teams played their heart out.  I just wish we'd won.

I respect your assessment, but that team can play lights out football and can play really poor football so it's difficult to assess which of those two teams you are playing until you are playing them.  

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1VaBlue1

November 7th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

I agree - I want Michigan to beat teams that are playing their best.  No excuses.  PSU has an excuse - LB injuries.  MSU has an excuse - whatever it might be today, but they use them.  UW has an excuse - they were missing Beagle and had a true freshman QB starting his first game.  Too many excuses...

There are some snowflakes that want M to play only weak teams, or to have the better teams on the schedule be injured.  NO!!!  Full strenght, mano-a-mano...

(That said, I'll take the wins anyway M can deliver them!)

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NowTameInThe603

November 7th, 2016 at 3:12 PM ^

just plain stupid. I dont need to study Washington's Oline to know they would be eaten alive and browning would only be able to play 2 quarters.

Beyond that we have the best cover corner in the nation and Peppers.

Alabama is the scariest because they might actually be able to handle our dline and their dline would KILL us.

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DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2016 at 6:26 PM ^

Ah so you missed a defense that is worse than ours hold Bama to 10 points this weekend? LSU's OL is worse than ours too. Bama's DL is better than our OL, but they would not "kill" us. We are still playing with 3-5 NFL offensive lineman.

Nobody has held Washington below 31 points this year and they're one of only 2 teams scoring more points than we are.

Plus, I qualified my whole thing with idk whether Browning would have enough time. My whole post was "which qb is the most dangerous if they can only stand in the pocket and throw".

Plus plus, New Hampshire is a shit state. Keep my name out your mouth.



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Gulogulo37

November 8th, 2016 at 2:09 AM ^

LSU's defense isn't THAT much worse than ours, and that's just one game. Maybe Bama would score 21 if they played them again.

I think Bama is clearly one of the 2 best teams in the country. Certainly would be more worried about them than Washington. Michigan vs. Bama for the championship.

Having said that, I do like seeing Bama below what's expected on offense with defense and special teams TDs taken out. Certainly, it's not all luck because their D line is killing people and forcing fumbles because of that, but getting all the defensive TDs they've had this year feels like it has to involve a good deal of luck. I think we can take them.

Stewart Mandel was talking about how skilled OSU is because they had 2 pick sixes against Nebraska, as though it had nothing to do with playing against arm-punters.

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Steeveebr

November 7th, 2016 at 1:51 PM ^

Very interesting.  The question with all of this is as always accounting for the schedule of all the other teams (teams outside the 4) used in the ranking and all the other teams they've played.  It's a never ending struggle in football where the sample size is always so small.  I like this chart though!

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1464

November 7th, 2016 at 1:52 PM ^

For years I've had doubts about what our offense would do against a truly elite defense.  I think I'm finally starting to come to terms with the fact that we may be able to drive against good teams.  Wisconsin was tough sledding, but we certainly didn't collapse.  Should have been 23 points scored.  Could have been 30+ if we finished drives.

I know a lot of national guys don't think our team is as good as the advanced metrics show, but if our team really is that good, Bama should be afraid of us.  Not vice versa.

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lhglrkwg

November 7th, 2016 at 2:06 PM ^

the national perception of a team lags a few years behind. Everyone still thinks the SEC is unstoppable even though it's Bama and a bunch of nobodies now. People finally came around on OSU - they're no longer perceived as a paper tiger and are now given the benefit of the doubt in rankings. Clemson is similar too. Clemsoning died a while ago and they benefit.

I think the Big 10 has three teams that are nationally top 10 (and just maybe a 4th in PSU) but the national perception of the Big 10 hasn't caught up to reality. People still think we're a slow overrated league even though Wisconsin beat LSU and we beat Wisconsin, LSU, and Florida. In 1-3 years, we'll be getting ranked higher than we feel we should be based on reputation from this time period

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Steves_Wolverines

November 7th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

I think Alabama and Michigan are the clear, consistent top 2. They beat teams by exploiting their weaknesses. Their gameplan is different against every opponent, but have a foundation of a dominant defense, scary special teams, and ball control offense.

Clemson, Ohio State, and Louisville are Jekyll and Hyde teams. They are inconsistent, but when they are on, look out. I would rank them as follows:

Ohio State
Clemson
Louisville

I still don't trust Washington, and I don't think they could keep it a two score game against any of the 5 teams above. 

My CFP rankings

1. Alabama

2. Michigan

3. Clemson

4. Ohio State

5. Washington

6. Louisville

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AmayzNblue

November 7th, 2016 at 2:47 PM ^

This is an interesting analysis and suggests what most UM fans are a little anxious about: just how good are we? I find it hard to believe that OSU could come in and put up 42 in our house last year and that it will be a completely different story this year. Their offense is going to move and score, regardless of how stalled they have looked against weaker opponents this season. They looked pathetic against MSU last year, then trounced us. I just hope that Don Brown can make better in game adjustments than Durkin did last year because we just looked lost and poorly coached on defense last season in The Game. We'll need a special performance from Peppers and the D line in order to win the game this year. On offense, my hope is that we don't look like our game against Wisconsin, because we've really stalled against the only decent defense we've faced this year. Not trying to be negative, but also don't want to have unrealistic expectations going into The Game. The other problem is that OSU will have everything to gain and not much to lose, whereas all the burden of expectation will be on UM to continue the undefeated season and stay in the playoff picture



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DrMantisToboggan

November 7th, 2016 at 3:16 PM ^

As for the offense against Wisconsin - that was a different Speight, we missed 3 FG's, and Wisconsin's D is better than OSU's. If we played Wisconsin today I think we would score 30+. 

As for the Defense from last year to now - we have a completely different scheme and all of our really good players from last year are a year older and now great. We use Peppers more effectively. Taco is better and playing full-time. Our depth is crazy. We are healthier. Strib is much improved. This year's defense is last year's defense on steroids and with better strategy. This year's OSU offense is without most of last year's playmakers. 

It shouldn't be that farfetched to believe that the results of this year's game is going to be wildly different than last year's results. 

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Frank Chuck

November 7th, 2016 at 6:22 PM ^

Using S&P+, our 3 best opponents overall have been Penn State (9th), Wisconsin (10th), and Colorado (11th).

 

When rearragned for S&P+ offfense, the ranking is:

Penn State 36.0 for 28th > Colorado 34.4 for 32nd > Wisconsin 29.7 for 69th

 

So how are you getting 39.3 as the average?

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taistreetsmyhero

November 7th, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^

I did best offensive S&P opponents and best defensive S&P opponents separately. I did this because I wanted to have an eye test of the offenses against good defenses and the defenses against good offenses. Michigan's and Alabama's won them the games against Wisconsin and LSU, respectively, but neither Wisconsin nor LSU has a great offense so that performance isn't all that useful.

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lorch_arsonist

November 7th, 2016 at 4:24 PM ^

Thank you. Great post.

Even if you replace PSU (given their depleted defense) with our 4th highest ranked defensive opponent, you get UCF (ranked 21). We hung 51 on them (3 were field goals) and 447 yards.

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