Logic and Math not Coaches

Submitted by Ziff72 on

I have been very upset with people calling this a rebuilding project and the memo that Brady has to turn around the losing culture(we had a winning season) and the lack of talent blah blah blah.  Michigan football has been amazingly consistent the last few years in matching expectations other than 08 when everyone just assumed somehow we would have 6-7 wins despite the logic because ya know most of us have known nothing else in our lifetimes.   Forget coaches and consider the following.

07 Offense Ranked 68- This team obviously under achieved considering the returning talent, but injuries were devastating to this team so here is our baseline talented team with qb with injured arm finishes in mediocrity.

08 Offense ranked 109- So we had 1 returning starter,  no qb, no depth and our only true weapons C. Brown and B. Minor were hurt most of the year.  So we were awful just like you would imagine.  This isn't transition this is logic.

09 Offense Ranked 58- So we have 7 returning starters this time, true frosh at qb and more injured rb's.  You expect improvement with that many returning starters but with a true frosh you can't expect too much and we return to mediocrity.

10 Offense ranked 8- So we returned 8 starters this year.  With 8 starters and a year of experience at qb you expect steady improvement, but we get a rocket boost due to Denard's emergence.

11 Offense ranked ?- So we return 10 starters as well our qb with more experience.   We should have one of the top offense in the country.

 

I have faith in Hoke to get this done.  Most of the posters I have read think Hoke will be great for Michigan, but think it will take time and are a bunch of downers afraid of expectations.  Well you can't have it both ways.   If Hoke is a good coach like I think he is he won't fuck up this offense and it will improve.  Any regression of this offense will be a failure of this staff.  Everyone blames 08's disaster of an offense on scheme transition I say garbage.  We were terrible with nothing to work with.  

So let's look at the logic fail of MGBLOG majority.

Offense was very good should get better, defense and special teams blew ass and can't get worse, they get rid of coach everyone feels was worst defensive coach ever and replace him with giant defensive teddy bear that hands out maize butter everyone has slurped up. We have great senior leadership in Molk, Martin, RVB and it's a pretty large senior class with Huyge, Hemmimgway, Odoms, Stonum, Koger, Twolf just to name some of the more prominent ones.

We won 7 games have an easier schedule and despite all the facts I listed if anyone dares mention Big Ten Championship everyone runs for cover under Brady's Suit Coat.

If you think Brady is as good as you say then you have to accept the expectations that come with it.  Everyone is bashing Brian and saying it's a great hire and then saying give him time, no.

I've moved on from RR and support Hoke with all I got, but I expect greatness now. I'm not going to call for a firing like some lunatic if it doesn't happen, but I have the "hope" that Brian said was gone in his post.  I still have it and I think it's logical if you look past the noise and just look at the numbers.  Plenty of teams have gone from 4-5 losses to great seasons...Mich 85, Mich 97, Mich 06 to name a few no to mention MSU and Auburn and Arkansas and on and on from just this past year.   As Brady said in the presser..."For God's sake this is Michigan"   If when Nebraska comes into Ann Arbor in late November we are not playing for the division title I'll be sorely disapppointed just look at the numbers.

Have Some Faith and Go Blue!!

 

 

 

jamiemac

January 13th, 2011 at 9:21 PM ^

Well, my expectations for next season havent changed despite the coaching change

We'll have one more win heading into the final two games than we did this year and still control our fate in the division race. We'll see if we're more ready to tangle wtih the Nebraska, OSU two step at the end than we were with Wisco/OSU this season. I cant, and wont, make any e-predictions on those until I see how the defense looks in the spring and in actual games next fall.

This change was all about D. We lamented all year how good we can be if we only had an average D.  I think Hoke's hands on approach on that side of the ball might reveal an immediate answer or two that the previous staff could not find.

Zone Left

January 13th, 2011 at 11:01 PM ^

The defense is just so far away from being good.  If, and it's a big if, Woolfolk and Floyd come back at 100%, the staff finds someone to play next to Demens, and Demens was seriously underutilized, then the defense could progress to "meh," which would be awesome.  I'm seriously concerned about Woolfolk.  That injury sounds awful, regardless of the progress reports we get.

I will agree that no one will no anything until the Notre Dame game at the earliest.  ND are much better better than they were in September, and will be a serious threat to make a BCS game next year (remember the sweetheart deal).  If Michigan can hold their offense down some, then I'll start to get optimistic.

BornInAA

January 13th, 2011 at 9:23 PM ^

we have talent...

the hard thing is if the players can absorb new playbooks, blocking schemes, coverage senarios etc fast enough not to make a lot of mistakes.

The kids are young and learn fast but it won't be easy even with the talent.

m1jjb00

January 13th, 2011 at 9:35 PM ^

Michigan could improve by 50 places and still be mediocre.  If they could do that, then the offense could take a step back even with 10 returning starters and the team would still be miles better.  (And a ranking at 60 seems like a shortsighted goal.) I'd also expect a much better turnover margin. That, and the Legends division doesn't seem all that impressive makes me think we should aim pretty high.

If the defense doesn't improve by a whole freakin' bunch, I'll be forced to consider two very different hypothesis.

1.  Crap, Hoke and staff can't coach D either.

2.  Holy crap, RR was the worst defensive recruiter (w/o Casteel) ever.  Ever.

I'd like to think neither is true, which means we should have a vast improvement.

Greg McMurtry

January 13th, 2011 at 9:36 PM ^

The team is returning many starters and there is no reason to expect doom.  As long as none of the starters leave, the team should be fine.  I am also fully expecting the defense to be in much better shape than in 2010.  I am convinced that the defense was not adequately prepared in 2010 and that this will change in 2011.  The defense will also have TWoolf and Floyd back at CB which is a huge upgrade.  The offense will be a veteran one, with a new playbook.  In my opinion, if you take good players and change their scheme, they're still good players.  Where's the drop-off?  I don't see one.  This team will not be a young team in 2011.  If a solid DC can come in here and teach these kids how to play defense, I honestly don't see how a B1G championship is out of the question.

My estimated starters 2011:

QB: Denard JR

RB: Shaw SR

WR: Hemingway SR

WR: Stonum SR

Slot: Roundtree JR

TE: Koger SR

LT: Lewan SO

LG: Barnum JR

C: Molk SR

RG: Omameh JR

RT: Huyge SR

CB: TWoolf SR

CB: Floyd JR

Bandit: Kovacs JR

FS: Carvin SO

Spur: Cam SO

MLB: Demens JR

WLB: Jones JR

DE: Roh JR

NT: Martin SR

DT: RVB SR

DE: Black SO

 

mtzlblk

January 13th, 2011 at 10:29 PM ^

Realistically, a team that is learning a new system/playbook is going to struggle some in year one.

If we want to support BH properly, then we should start by not saddling him with expectations that he is unlikley to meet.

Yes, the O returns 10 starters and shouldn't drop off too much, but at least early in the season there wil be growing pains. Even though there are a lot of returning starters, a many of them will still be sophomores and juniors.

The D will still be very young, very green and very inexperienced and still somewhat shallow in terms of depth and there just isn't a way to simply coach around that. You can mitigate it through scheme, but it is what it is and I still think it will be a somewhat painful year for the D, although it needs to be better than last year for sure.

If BH gets to 8 wins his first year, then we are doing pretty well.

And please, if people generally predict 8 wins out of him this year, let's not crucify him if/when he actually achieves that if he loses to OSU and Wisconsin.

OSU looks a lot more beatable with TP gone and possibly others, so they will be rebuilding, as will Wisconsin, so fingers are crossed.