Joel Klatt Previews the Playoffs
Some main points from his 36-minute discussion:
Michigan - He wants to see more Play Action Pass out of Michigan as opposed to Run Action Pass. He says we typically have a hard run fake and roll the QB out with receiving options flowing in layers. He wants to see us do more run fakes, with pass protection and a route concept as he thinks we'd get bigger plays off of that.
He wants to see Michigan bully TCU at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball and not get too fancy.
Michigan has been the 2nd best team the past 2 seasons, at least by record. Amazing that their defense lost so much talent and still shine so strong especially in the red zone.
TCU - He thinks TCU has a great offense, but a so-so defense. He thinks TCU must play very aggressive early and jump out to a lead that they build on or they will lose. Believes Michigan will continue its streak of winning the 2nd half.
PICK - Michigan to win AND cover the 7.5 points.
Georgia - Similar style to Michigan, but more talent. Believes Georgia is tougher on the lines and utilizes TEs well. Georgia struggled against dynamic passing teams like LSU who had several long pass plays against Georgia in the SEC Championship. Believes that Georgia has been the clear best team the past two seasons and are maybe better this year than last.
Ohio State - Ohio State hasn't slipped, Michigan just caught up. OSU has the best chance of any playoff team to beat Georgia due to their explosive offense and they must play aggressive. OSU too often settles for FGs in the red zone and can't do that against Georgia. OSU was talented but missed on open opportunities against Michigan and had poor coaching schemes that would either stop Michigan cold or give up huge plays. They won't make that same mistake again.
PICK - Georgia to win BUT OSU will prevent Georgia from covering the 6.5 points.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
"roll the QB out with receiving options flowing in layers."
I've been wanting that for some time. Wilson deeper with Henning underneath. A Tyreek Hill slant across the field.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
and "Johnson W I D E open deep!"
December 30th, 2022 at 4:25 PM ^
And they said he couldn’t throw the deep ball!
December 30th, 2022 at 11:19 AM ^
Blue,
I don’t trust Michigan’s staff - position coaches, coordinators, and players.
They have been deceiving us - their beloved fans - throughout the season.
Why do I say this? Well, my view is - they have “things” in their respective (offense and defense) playbooks which they haven’t shown us yet. It’s the “double secret” stuff - or, like Rocky boxing right handed.
My hope, or expectation is - it’s time… “Southpaw”.. open things up.. and show wrinkles that many of us have been waiting for all season
It’s quality of execution. Play loose.. have fun.. enjoy the ride.. one play, series, and game at a time.
Go Bue!
December 30th, 2022 at 1:50 PM ^
No doubt that the Michigan offensive staff has a few more plays that haven't unleased yet. They could do the double pass like they did against Iowa in the 2021 Big-10 Championship game except not with Donovan throwing.
They will take what the TCU defense gives them but either way, make TCU pay!
December 30th, 2022 at 2:09 PM ^
Isn’t that what Klatt said Michigan does a lot off??
December 30th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
Georgia spanks OSU by 3 touchdowns.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:35 AM ^
I still don't really understand this "Georgia struggled with LSU" narrative. In the game I watched they didn't struggle, but ran away with it. Sure, LSU put up 500 yds passing and 30 points, but the game was never that close. Georgia got into a shoot out, and dominated that shootout. It's not crazy that LSU passed for 500 yards. OSU put up 500 yards on us.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:56 AM ^
My favorite retort is that yards don't count for points. OSU for 2 straight years racked up tons of yards on us...and kicked a lot of field goals. I think they will do the same vs UGA
December 30th, 2022 at 11:59 AM ^
Jim Harbaugh: What's the most overrated statistic in football? "Probably everything but points".
December 30th, 2022 at 3:26 PM ^
Or the OSU has the best shot of upsetting Georgia. That pretty much dismisses everything we did to beat them and says they beat themselves. Bullshit. I don’t know if we can beat Georgia, but the odds are better this year than last.
December 30th, 2022 at 12:58 PM ^
My impression of watching Georgia against LSU in the SEC championship game was that Georgia had another gear in reserve. Before the half, as memory serves, LSU made it a closer game, then Georgia just came back and rammed a TD home. They flexed a bit and scored. They had a lot more they could have gone to if they had to.
So I tend to think you're right ... this is probably going to be mostly Georgia.
December 30th, 2022 at 3:36 PM ^
I had only one eye on that game but I recall after Georgia got up big they just let LSU connect on moon balls thrown in front of them like a big brother putting his hand on little brother's head and letting him swing away.
December 31st, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
That's pretty much my memory. UGA got up 35-7 and LSU cut with to 35-17 and never got closer. It reminded me of when my cat catches a mouse but doesn't kill it, and my wife freaks out.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^
Interesting point about the Play Action Pass vs. Run Action Pass, admittedly I've never given that much thought. I like where Joel's head is at.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:10 AM ^
I don't understand. Georgia is a better version of Michigan and OSU is on the road. Georgia is at home. Georgia is better than the team that was insanely talented last year. And Klatt (who we all respect a lot) believes that Georgia will win by less than Michigan did at the Horseshoe?
Somehow OSU will "bounce back"? Maybe they will. But Upon Further Review that OSU team seems to lack the toughness on the lines to do that against Georgia.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
He said that OSU's coaches schemed poorly against Michigan to play a defense that either stops a team cold or gives up big plays. He thinks OSU won't do that against Georgia.
He also claims OSU had open stuff on Michigan that they missed and didn't execute on. OSU will play more aggressive against Georgia.
Based on his comments he seems to think that OSU is much closer to Michigan than that final score indicates.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:49 AM ^
He's probably right that OSU won't run the same scheme on defense. But OSU is still going to get outcoached and they are going to struggle on defense. I've been impressed with the UGA staff and they are going to see that stuff that OSU had open against Michigan too.
December 30th, 2022 at 1:57 PM ^
UGA HC Kirby Smart has had over 4 weeks to prepare against those buckeyes. Look what they did to Michigan last year?
UGA can win in a shootout but their defense is as good as ours. It's hard to imagine the buckeyes scoring more than 30 pts against UGA. UGA is capable of putting 40 on the OSU defense.
I'll take UGA 45, OSU 27.
December 31st, 2022 at 8:32 AM ^
Michigan exposed OSU as being a team/roster full of elitely talented prima donnas who are poorly coached. Perhaps those prima donnas will step up and play with heart-and make this a real contest. Perhaps, but I believe the odds in this regard are stacked heavily against them. If Georgia secures an early momentum against these guys I will not be surprised if they put a merciless beating on them.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:39 AM ^
Agree, he seems to be completely negating the OSU/UM game, and the OSU games again PSU, NW, Maryland, all in the back half of the season. Michigan had more big offensive plays in one game than OSU had in all four of those games. When did OSU unleash this big-play monster against good competition? Certainly not against any good defenses. And what about OSU's dismal defense?
December 30th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I think Klatt is right that OSU had open guys and opportunities missed. OSU even had a fake punt that they botched as (even in Harbaugh's eyes) would have likely led to a touchdown since it was wide open.
And I agree with Klatt that the OSU defense was "all or nothing" on several plays that became exposed by Michigan. I think it is clear OSU schemed poorly and if they did that again vs Georgia they would be a laughing stock, so agree with Klatt that they will learn and have a better scheme that isn't so risky.
Not sure Klatt mentioned, but OSU also had several big penalties that were unnecessary. At least one was unsportsmanlike conduct, right?
Where I differ with Klatt is that "even" if OSU cleans up a lot, Georgia will still likely overpower OSU's defense by Q3 and move offensively on them at will, covering the spread and winning by at least 14 without sweating...meaning Georgia will save their good plays for the national championship.
If OSU wins (as painful as that would be), odds would increase that Michigan could win the championship. As Klatt said, Georgia may be better than last year. Even if the Georgia players are marginally worse, the coaching, overall natty experience, and player understanding of the system would be better.
December 30th, 2022 at 5:01 PM ^
Yeah, I think focusing only on final scores is misleading. I don't, for instance, think Illinois is a better team than Ohio State is, just because they gave us more trouble. There are specific match-ups, and there are strategic-tactical fuck-ups, and there are sometimes just balls bouncing in unexpected ways.
Klatt specifically said that OSU matches up well against Georgia because of their explosive plays. And ... they did have way more of those this year than we did. He didn't say OSU is better than us. And he didn't say they should have beaten us.
Indeed, OSU's offense is big on explosive plays, while ours -- until the Ohio State game, at least -- was focused more on wearing down opponents over the course of the first three quarters. That's fair.
Also, I know I'm alone in this, but I think Ohio State was actually fairly close to us. They were winning at halftime, after all ... and that includes that just missed fourth down pass they went for, Johnson's touchdown which easily could have been stopped for a short gain, and so on.
We earned our explosive plays, don't get me wrong, and their coaching let them down. But ... well, I guess I disagree with most of you that we somehow exposed Ohio State as a "bad" team. They're a damned good team (which is why us beating them makes us look even better). I'd love to see them give Georgia a real game, which would give me reason for hope we can do the same.
But I sure don't want to play OSU again.
December 31st, 2022 at 10:10 AM ^
The problem with focusing on OSU's missed opportunities is that it specifically ignores Michigan's. This is something Brian talked about at length on the recap podcast, and gave several examples. It skews the narrative to make it sound like OSU was in the game more than they really were, and had a real shot, but for their lapses. This is a false narrative. They were blown off the field in the 2nd half, just like almost every other Michigan opponent.
Some examples: Sainristil jumped a route and had a pick 6 teed up had Stroud not overthrown the receiver. McGregor nearly grabbed a pick 6 on a deflection. Okie caused a fumble and possible scoop 6 that was incorrectly called.
Also, OSU was in a lose-lose situation. As soon as they quit throwing out constant murder-blitzes (after getting torched on 3 long passes), UM went on a long drive of attrition to go up 31-20. Then they went back to murder blitzing and got got twice on long runs. They had no way to stop us. It was very similar to 2021 actually. They just threw the kitchen sink at the problem, which worked for a while. Then it didn't.
December 30th, 2022 at 12:00 PM ^
A lot of CFB fans just look at OSU's passing offense and their roster and just cannot fathom that they're not a top team. Similar to how people continued to talk about Alabama being in the CFP all season. The number of people trying to paint this year's game as some kind of fluke is baffling to me
For sure OSU's passing offense is elite, but their D is meh, their run offense is meh, and they have zero QB run game. If you can contain the passing offense, they are beatable
December 30th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
They can't punch it in against real defenses. Proven fact.
December 30th, 2022 at 3:32 PM ^
Beating OSU this year was the same plan as last. Keep the big plays in front, cover their receivers long enough to get to Stroud and make him uncomfortable. Lean on their D and they’ll tire out by the 4th. The biggest difference was Knowles running a scheme that was vulnerable to big plays and refused to adjust once they started happening. Game over.
December 30th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
I also dont understand why people think UGA has taken a step back this year. Theyre as good if not better IMO. The defense is still dominant and once Bennett got some experience and figured out how to control the game he became much better. Now hes a defending champion QB.
Theyre going to destroy AN other state.
December 30th, 2022 at 2:20 PM ^
Klatt, with that statement about OSU, sounds just like every other narrators out there. If OSU did not do what they did, UM would have pounded the ball in the first half quite successfully. He is only looking at what happened but not extrapolating if OSU did not stack the box. They are not strong in the trenches and that required them to load up. This is not just in UM games. There were other games where they were exposed. Why he thinks they are suddenly going to get stronger in trenches against UGA is beyond me. I wish he would have given his reasons rather than just taking the obvious narrative.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
i was surprised to see GA's D isn't in the top 50 in sacks or tfl.... don't i remember them absolutely mauling us at the line of scrimmage last year? They are 7th in total defense, while we're #3.... But they are #1 against the run. If they are able to make ohio 1 dimensional, shutting down the run, they can get stroud under pressure & he won't have a great game and it won't go well for them.
I think ohio has lived with a high level of confidence for too many years.... ending the regular season beating their rival and then beating up on an over matched B1G West team....
Having taken it on the chin the last two years on the last game of the season, there isn't that same confidence. Its cool to talk about how they feel like they have new life, a second chance, the opportunity to show everyone they're worthy of their place in the CFP, but that said, I think the bulldogs rough them up.
Let's take care of business and get a rematch.... not of 11/26, of 12/31/21.
GO BLUE.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:15 AM ^
Maybe skewed by SEC offenses v B1G offenses?
December 30th, 2022 at 11:12 AM ^
Thanks for the summary - pretty spot-on stuff from Joel IMO.
First holiday in ages getting to see my Buckeye-alum family back in Ohio and have something to talk crap about after the ownings from the past two seasons - Dawgs by 90 and let’s get our payback in the Natty!
December 30th, 2022 at 11:13 AM ^
I’m not sure what others think about sports analysts - but, IMO, it seems like Joel Klatt is “the best” at assessing/ commenting on the college game today.
Joel brings a “level head”, he’s played the game, admits if / when he’s wearing his heart on his sleeve, and is easy to listen to.
His podcasts are something I look for, and enjoy listening to.
Go Blue!
December 30th, 2022 at 11:43 AM ^
He's biased in that he's a network man, broadcasting the games. So he has to err on the side of making every game seem like a great matchup. The truth is that OSU is a puppy whose mother just bit its head off for going after the teat too often. The puppy is terrified to do it again and walking around trembling. As soon as the mother snaps at it again it will pee all over itself.
December 30th, 2022 at 1:02 PM ^
ESPN has all 3 of the playoff games and Klatt is Fox. He seems to think that Michigan is the clear favorite against TCU and should win comfortably.
December 30th, 2022 at 1:10 PM ^
I'd watch Klatt on Cowherd and all the other youtube interview videos out there over the last month. Klatt gets around -- like before the Holiday Bowl where he would soon commentate, he was in his hotel room talking about Michigan on a video interview.
I don't think he is network biased as much as Musburger or others -- Klatt is definitely more forward with who he thinks will win in all his videos until he is in the booth calling the game.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:14 AM ^
I honestly thought that was one of his weaker analyses hes done.
I recommend listening to Steve Clark on WTKA with Sam Webb. He digs pretty deep while keeping it laymans.
December 30th, 2022 at 12:07 PM ^
Have a link?
December 30th, 2022 at 12:18 PM ^
Thanks. I should have included that.
part 1: https://omny.fm/shows/michigan-insider/009-steve-clarke-seg1-122822?in_playlist=podcast
part 2: https://omny.fm/shows/michigan-insider/010-steve-clarke-seg2-122822?in_playlist=podcast
December 30th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^
jeez - i feel even less confident now. You'd think TCU was the Montana Niners or the 2000 Rams...
December 30th, 2022 at 2:14 PM ^
He cuts through the narrative and gives some really good data points to digest. He thinks we'll win, but he says TCU is no Cincy from last year, so be prepared.
December 30th, 2022 at 2:00 PM ^
Steve Clark? LMAO.
December 30th, 2022 at 2:17 PM ^
Expound please
December 30th, 2022 at 2:26 PM ^
Steve Clark isn’t a football expert. Joel Klatt has more football knowledge his toe than Clark does in his entire body. If you said Jansen, Borges, or Bedford I can see it. But Steve Clark? The guy is a local radio host. What had he done to show that he is worth listening to?
Klatt has watched both teams play. He knows how to break down film. Clark doesn’t have that depth of knowledge.
December 30th, 2022 at 2:51 PM ^
Overall, I agree. I just think this particular take by Klatt was weak and didn't really say much. He spent 2/3s of his analysis on GA-OSU, then tried to squeeze in the Mich-TCU analysis at end.
With that, both Seth and Brian on this blog have never played a down on football, but can break down football for the layman like no other.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:16 AM ^
Thanks for summarizing the long video Comrade! Super helpful.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:20 AM ^
He wants to see more Play Action Pass out of Michigan as opposed to Run Action Pass. He says we typically have a hard run fake and roll the QB out with receiving options flowing in layers. He wants to see us do more run fakes, with pass protection and a route concept as he thinks we'd get bigger plays off of that
People have been asking for this for weeks. We do it once a game, get a nice chunk, then don’t do it again. Hopefully this is the game that changes
December 30th, 2022 at 12:24 PM ^
Waggle, please!
December 30th, 2022 at 1:04 PM ^
Better yet, I hope they save it for GA and any other secret they've kept in the bag all year.
December 30th, 2022 at 11:22 AM ^
The one thing I completely disagree with him on is that Georgia is better than they were last year. I don’t think they are. That was a supremely talented defense. This year they are still really good but have had several close games. I think they’ve came back to the pack some this year.