IOWA: Quick Stats Review
DEFENSE
Pass defense:
Rank: 38-
yds/att: 6.11
yds/comp: 11.10
Passes intercepted Rank: 1-# 22!!
Rush Defense:
Overall Rank: 14- Op. Avg: 2.97
Top 5 rushing Opponents
Rank Team Sn.Avg. Against IA Avg
16 Wisc. 4.93 3.5; 1-tfl
31 Minn 4.23 3.8; 2-sack;2-tfl
44 Neb. 4.44 3; 2-sack; 2-tfl
56 Illi. 4.45 2.6; 2-sacks; 2-tfl
61 ISU 5.12 3.2; 2-sacks; 4-tfl
OFFENSE (not sack adjusted)
Rushing Offense
Rank: 106 - per rush Avg. 3.27
TFL allowed
Rank: 123
Passing Offense
Rank: 110
Sacks allowed
Rank: 92
Quick takes:
Iowa played better on offense against Nebraska, but in general it is not good on that side of the ball. Iowa’s defense is pretty good, but not Wisconsin good, besides taking the ball away. They seem to have almost all sacks from their LB’s and DE’s, so I’m thinking they’re not terrifying at DT? Iowa’s special teams are solid and generally don’t make mistakes.
Michigan needs to continue to be patient and play their game on offense, including protecting the ball (duh). I find it difficult Michigan would be overlooking Iowa. I expect Iowa to play with confidence and be rugged on Defense, but Michigan should win this game in front of a quasi home field in Indy. If Michigan can average 4.5 yards per carry, this will probably be a blowout.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:06 PM ^
I'm encouraged by the matchup, because while Iowa is a solid football team (particularly on defense), they don't tend to run a lot of College Crappe. We've only gotten in trouble with outmanned opponents (Nebraska, Rutgers) when they use a lot of misdirection and the QB run game, and that isn't Iowa's bag.
I would expect a relatively low-scoring, conservative game, but for the good guys to come out on top. Say something like 24-13.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
Their offense seems to be a good matchup for us. Their tackles are terrible, so there shouldn't be a whole lot of downfield throws. They've got a Rimington quality center, but the rest of the line is meh. Bringing in personnel to stop the run should be an option so not that worried about them running a ton on us.
Defense worries me more. It's all on the coaches to scheme to attack them effectively. They seem like the kind of defense that can stone you if play into their strengths. Gattis seems to have hit his stride a bit with the play calling, so cautiously optimistic he'll dial up a good one again.
November 29th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
With one of their starting CB's out it should make UM's job a little easier.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
Harbaugh’s analogy of the Miracle on Ice was spot on. Beating the Russians was epic, but the US needed to win another game to claim the gold.
Beat Iowa!
November 29th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
They'd be sitting there with 3 losses (probably all of them by multiple scores) if Clifford doesn't go out in PSU game. Protect the ball, see QB, kill QB and hoist the trophy!
34-13 and on to some random Florida Bow----uh, THE PLAYOFFS for Michigan.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:13 PM ^
I would add that Iowa’s only scoring 25pts game and Petras is completing just 54.8% of his passes. I’d be surprised if Iowa puts up more than 14pts, and feel confident that Michigan can put up 28 or more
November 29th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
I was just watching the B1G Network, they said Iowa has scored 8 TD's from scrimmage in the last 6 games. They are ranked 113th in rushing yards. They are a defensive team, and they have to pass to move the ball. If we can limit turnovers, maybe get a couple TO's from them, make them earn it, hold them to FG's, we should be able to score enough to win.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
It's a stark shift in perspective going from OSU to Iowa. Variance favors the underdog. It feels like Michigan should play conservatively and do everything they can to avoid turnovers and eliminate big special teams plays. Slowly grind them down and win with the running game and defense.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:54 PM ^
Actually this weekend was a perfect counterpoint to your hypothesis. Minimizing variance was a HUGE part of Michigan's strategy to win as the underdog.
Variance does often favor the underdog. But when the favorite has an extremely potent offense, the opposite is true.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
Can't wait for offense and defense FFFF this week.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
Those run defense stats are actually pretty impressive. No one has averaged 4.0 against them all year.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:10 PM ^
Actually, Maryland averaged 5.7.
November 29th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
Double post. Site be strugglin today. Wonder why.
November 29th, 2021 at 12:50 PM ^
Iowa is #1 in INTs this year with 22. If we win and get Cincy in the playoffs, Cincy is #3 in INTs with 17. If we win that and then meet Georgia for the championship, we face a team that is #1 in giving up the fewest passing TDs all year (5). Pretty crazy gauntlet there for the passing game.
Counting chicken caveats apply heavily here--but in that scenario, Cade will have faced #1 in fewest passing TDs allowed (Georgia), #2 (Washington), #3 (Cincinnati), #6 (Wisconsin), #8 (Northwestern), and #9 (Penn State).
November 29th, 2021 at 1:03 PM ^
Iowa did not look good against Nebraska on offense. They scored a TD on a blocked punt and got a safety so they mustered 19 points via one touchdown and 4 field goals. Their QBs mustered 6.6 ypa and other than one big run from their RB for 55 yards it was a pedestrian effort at best.
don’t turn the ball over and keep doing what we have been doing on offense and we should win by a couple scores. Their defense isn’t going to be able to hold up.
I think they will struggle to score more than 17 or so on our defense so if we don’t give them points via turnovers or special teams this should be a romp.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:04 PM ^
First, I think Harbaugh & Co. will not be taking Iowa lightly.During his own college career at Michigan, every game he observed versus Iowa except one was a down-to-the-wire dog fight:
1982: Michigan 29, Iowa 7 (redshirt)
1983: Michigan 16, Iowa 13 (UM last second FG)
1984: Iowa 26, Michigan 0 (DNP broken arm)
1985: Iowa 12, Michigan 10 (Iowa last seconf FG)
1986: Michigan 20, Iowa 17 (UM last second FG)
As Michigan's head coach in 2016 his Wolverines lost at Iowa 13-14, and in 2019 beat the Hawkeyes only 10-3 in Ann Arbor. He has publicly expressed a lot of respect for Ferentz and the Iowa program.
Second, everyone talks about Iowa's defense and INTs, which has been a remarkable stat for Iowa football the last 5 years actually.
But one of the biggest tells about Iowa play this year in big games versus opponents with a pulse is how the Hawkeyes will also just turn the ball over.
Purdue: 4 INTs!
at Wisconsin: 3 fumbles!
Despite having an NFL-ready offensive tackle, Iowa has given up 30 sacks this season. 23 of them of their starting QB Spencer Petras (#7).
Purdue got 4 sacks in one game at Iowa than they had produced all season long up to that point with Karloftis & Co.
Wisconsin forced 6 sacks on Iowa in Madison, plus all three fumbles.
This is precisely not the behavior what you want going up against Michigan's defense with the Ojabo, Ross, Hutchinson. Ferentz will have to leverage screen passes to the backs and dump passes to the TEs to try to move the chains, redirecting the pressure onto Michigan's LBs and secondary again. I don't think Iowa will have much fun running right at Michigan in this game.
November 29th, 2021 at 1:06 PM ^
I am glad we don't have to play Wisconsin
I think this is going to be a very close game. There has to be a hang over. Hopefully we are back to focus by today.
We are going to need to play well to win. Iowa always seems to play us tough.
23 to 19, Michigan
November 29th, 2021 at 1:20 PM ^
PTSD says there should be a hangover. But defense and running games travel.
About goddamn time for us to win the BIG and Iowa gets to be the final sacrifice in that journey.
31-17
November 29th, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
I haven't watched Iowa play other than in snippets, but their offense made some plays in the 2nd half against Nebraska. No doubt they are limited on that side of the ball, but I expect their will be a few sustained drives Saturday.