Illinois thoughts

I think I understand what Brad Underpants is doing, but not why he is doing it. Illinois is basically an experiment of playing every different style of 5 at once.

Cockburn - Classic center, David Robinson
Bezhanishvili - Passing spread center, Draymond Green
Dosunmu - Slashing spread center, KAT
Feliz - Undersized defensive center, Ben Wallace
Frazier - Pure fundamentals below-rim center, Pau Gasol

Could you actually play those five guys together? Maybe? Not really? Why?

The statistical results are what you might expect from such a commitment. They are #1 in the country in ORebs, 11th in avoiding blocks, top-50 in free throw rate, and top-40 in 2pt%. They are nearly last in the country in 3pt rate (346th) and they don't make the few 3s they do take (243rd). They are also insanely bad at "Far 2" shots, which is what Michigan's defensive scheme attempts to funnel and force en masse. Surprisingly, they never block shots or commit fouls. They also don't force turnovers. It's an extremely conservative defensive scheme, which again makes sense for their size and style. They don't have the speed to recover on press breaks or man beaters, so they keep everything in front of them, put their hands up, and rebound the misses.

Bezhanishvili is the starting 4 but also Cockburn's backup at the 5, sort of like Steve Kerr's 2016 rotation with Draymond. He was on a blistering four-game streak before Maryland destroyed him but throughout the season he has played extremely well. The versatility at the 5 is unsurprisingly a big strength overall for Illinois.

They play an 8-man rotation but only 6 are actually playable. Da'Monte Williams and Kipper Nichols play about half the game combined and both turn the Illinois offense into iso sludge whenever they are on the court. Michigan does not draw fouls but any extended time they get against these two will be a blessing.

Andres Feliz is not as famous as several of his teammates (Frazier, Cockburn, Dosunmu, Bezhanishvili) but he is more valuable than all of them. He protects the ball well, he's equally capable of distributing and creating his own shot, and he's a powerful rebounder for his size. However, he is a 6'1" guard who literally never shoots 3s (0/2 on the season after 1/4 in Game 1) which often telegraphs the team's offensive sets. Underpants prefers Frazier initiate the offense because if Feliz dumps down to Cockburn or Bezhanishvili, they can be immediately doubled with no consequences on the perimeter.

Overall I would call this team a masterclass at a single position that practically ignores the other four. No two players embody this better than Cockburn and Ayo Dosunmu. Ayo was last year's hot prospect for Illinois, and as the team played better down the stretch he was the centerpiece. He could have declared after his freshman season and gotten drafted in the first round but he came back to improve a few things in his game, mostly efficiency and a demonstration that he could shoulder the load on a team with meaningful expectations. Neither has happened, because Brad Underpants sprouted a massive erection as soon as Kofi Cockburn stepped on campus and he completely forgot about Ayo.

The Illinois defense is not as pathetic as Iowa's "zone," but it needs to be beaten in the same way. Teske will have a ton of work to do as both a passer and a roll man. Alternatively, if Michigan is hot they can just shoot over Illinois. They will give you plenty of shots but you'll only get one look per possession.

Torvik considers this game millimeter close, with M currently 51/49 to win at -0.2.