How I Stopped Worrying and Learned to...not Hate Realignment

The point of this post is to take a bit of historical perspective in with realignment. I will start by admitting I used to hate realignment and still don't like it, but looking at this history has made me realize that conference musical chairs has been a constant in my life, and so far, most everyone has gotten a seat. I'll first list the pertinent years and changes, and then describe my feelings about it.

I started this look with 1990 - specifically because that's the year before the Big East formed. it's before Arkansas left the old Southwest Conference, before the Bowl Alliance, and before the first conference championship games were played. There were 26 schools that competed as independents - and none of them thought of themselves as anything but "major" programs, or "Power" programs in our current language. I made a judgment call on who was major and who was minor among that group - but honestly, if I'd done this in 1980 instead of 1990, Miami and FSU wouldn't have been called "major." In 1970, I'm not sure if Penn State would have been

Anyway, here we go:

1990

D1A schools: 106

Major Schools: 63 (Appropriately Numbered Big 10, Big8, Pac10, 8-team ACC, 9-team SW, and 10-team SEC, along with Miami, FSU, PSU, ND, WVU, Pitt, 'Cuse, and BC)

18 other independents probably thought of themselves as higher mid majors, if not outright majors. Louisville, who I did not include, was ranked #14 this season. I also didn't include perennial WAC champion and 1984 national champion BYU. The line between major and mid major was not definitive in 1990.

1996 (first year of the Big 12)

D1A: 111

Major: 63 (Big 12, Pac10, 11-team Big Ten, 9 team ACC,12 team SEC, 8 team Big East, ND)

everyone else, mid major

VT, Rutgers and Temple joined the majors via the Big East in 1991. South Carolina became a major when joining the SEC in 1992. Houston, Rice SMU and TCU dropped down because of the destruction of the old SW. The BCS would start in 1998, and the line between major and mid-major was made definitive, as AQ (automatic qualifiers) and non-AQ.

in 2003, the ACC announced that Miami, VT and BC would be joining. The Big East had already planned to kick out Temple and replace them with UConn, and in turn added Louisville, Cincinnati, and South Florida. Technically, this meant that there were 66 BCS AQ programs, but as UConn, Cincy and USF did not manage to jump from the Big East to a "power" conference in 2014, I think there ought to be a caveat around those 3. Especially as UConn and USF are definitively not competitive programs today.

2014  (start of the CFP, end of the Big East)

FBS: 128

Power 5: 65 (14-school Big Ten, ACC, SEC; Pac12; 10-school Big Twelve, ND)

TCU returned to the big-time, and Utah and Louisville got promoted. All 3 played their way in. As previously stated, Temple was kicked out of the Big East just before it fell apart, and UConn, USF and Cincy were unable to jump from the sinking ship.

2026* (new CFP, "super" conferences, *plenty still to be determined)

FBS: 131

Power 5: 69 (32 in the "Super" Big Ten and SEC, 32 in the 10-school Pac12, 14-ACC, 12-Big 12), and of course, ND

Houston returns to the major ranks, as does Cincy, along with UCF (the last mid-major to claim a national title) and BYU (the last mid-major to be voted #1 by the AP - way back in 1984). Obviously, we don't know how this will shake out once the new CFP is announced - but for now, assuming no changes, this is how things would stand.

1990-2026 recap

net of 25 new schools in FBS

net of 6 new schools in power/AQ/major football

Currently, about half of the schools in power conferences are in 2 "super" conferences

moved up: VT, Rutgers, SoCar, Utah. L'ville, BYU, Cincy, UCF

moved down: Rice, SMU

had just a taste: Temple, UConn, USF

moved down, then returned: TCU, Houston, Cincy

If we look at the programs who were considered "major" in 1990, only Rice and SMU look to be outside of the Power 5 in 2026. Utah, TCU, Louisville, BYU, Cincy and UCF all "played" their way in, a la Miami, FSU and PSU decades earlier. But Boise State was unable to make the jump despite being the best mid-major when TCU and Utah did. Additionally, Rutgers and SoCar both jumped all the way into super conferences - and while Rutgers was relevant for a few seasons some time ago, they've been bumped up despite their on-field performance. VT acquitted themselves very well in the Big East and have been as respectable as anyone in the new ACC's middle class. UConn and USF briefly tasted success in a BCS conference, but have fallen back to earth as hard as Rutgers. Unfortunately for them. they fell outside of the power 5. Temple fell out of the Big East even before most of the realignment nonsense.

I don't really feel bad for Rice, SMU, UConn, USF or Temple - all of those programs were mismanaged and that led to their fall. But I do feel bad for Boise State, and I do think the gateway to the Power 5 is far less passable than it was to being "major" in the 1980s.

Final Thoughts

There were 63 major college football programs in 1990. Presumably, there may be 69 in 2026. But just as likely, there will only be 32-40 "super" programs. If that happens, then this change very well could be different than the earlier changes. However, we thought the club would shrink in 2014 as well. The only time it really has contracted so far, the schools that were left out had mismanaged their programs.

Even in the lowly Big East, 7 of the 8 schools from the 1990s found a Power 5 home. One of them - probably the second lowliest - managed to get into a super conference. For all the nail-biting, every team that got in the club in 1996 either flamed out spectacularly or is still in the club. SMU was recovering from a death penalty. Temple wasn't investing in their program. Rice hadn't had a winning record in the SW in 20 years until 1994. These schools didn't want to compete (or in SMU's case, broke the rules 20 years too early) and so they dropped out of the major ranks. If that holds true - if Oregon St and Syracuse and Georgia Tech still have a viable path to compete for hardware - then I think realignment is...ok? 

But that doesn't change the fact that WVU, one of the more successful Big East teams, is now in a conference devoid of any regional rivals, let alone historic rivals. We've seen some rivals be reunited by realignment, but we've seen plenty of other familiar foes become far less familiar. That is undoubtedly a negative of the past 15 years. On the flipside, I am able to watch every Michigan game while sitting on my couch in California. It's also feasible to watch every Wake Forest game if I want to. The nationalization of the sport is scary, and has broken up rivalries - but it has had some benefits for the fan too.

I've loved FB forever, but fell in love with CFB at a specific time  - when USC, Texas and Florida looked predestined to always compete, Alabama was a joke, and I figured Michigan was blessed by the steady living presence of Bo. About 18 years later, that all sounds ridiculous, doesn't it? Nothing in CFB is timeless - we often think of The Game as a timeless tradition, but one illuminating thing from Seth's "The Teams" podcast is that into the 1950s, the Jug was the main rivalry game, and in the 1950s the in-state rivalry was more important. Woody and Bo made The Game what it is today. That's a long time. But Michigan football, and college football, goes back much longer. Things have changed, and they will continue to. That includes conferences, rivals, and how to select a national champion.

I started this look with 1990 - and I think my biggest takeaway is that the end of independent football is really when the national championship became a closed shop, when a school coming from nowhere, or starting a new program, couldn't do what Penn State, FSU and Miami all did in the 1980s - becoming a major program solely by winning football games. As I mentioned earlier, had I started this in 1980 or 1950 we'd see significantly more change in who's major and who's not. If you're not blessed to already be in the club (like Oregon was before they got good), your road into it is far more winding.

You don't have to like realignment. But at this point, it's kind of one of college football's traditions, isn't it? ¯\_(ツ)_/¯