Hope for Michigan's D in Sparty's recent D performance?
As many of you know, MSU's defense is pretty ordinary. I know someone here recently compared the UConn and ND defenses as pretty similar (once their numbers are adjusted for Michigan's top level O).
Specifically, MSU has had a pretty bad pass D (sound familiar?). I believe they were rated around the same place as UM's pass defense prior to last weekend's games. Then, Michigan ran into an accurate 5th year QB who threw 64 times....and Sparty ran into an off-day by Tolzien on a run-frist team.
Otherwise, Sparty has a similarly bad pass D, but they look better on paper now because of mistakes by Tolzien and dropped passes. And it wasn't MSU's strong rush either. MSU did not put great pressure on the QB. I think they had one sack and a couple of hurries (worse tham UM).
They basically looked like a Michigan D. They allowed Tolzien to throw and let him try to be mistake-free and he wasn't. We allowed Chappel to throw and he was accurate (and threw a lot more).
Is it a low-risk or high-risk strategy? I don't know. But, it can work I guess....
October 5th, 2010 at 5:40 PM ^
The only MSU game that holds any relevance to me is ND, since their offensive scheme is a watered-down version of ours. The other teams they've played are either terrible (WMU, FAU, UNCO) or run a completely different scheme (Wisc), so I don't think we can draw firm conclusions from them.
ND runs similar offensive sets to us, with a couple extra wrinkles in the passing game (mostly focused on the TE), but have very rarely had Crist carry the ball (his quasi-concussion seems to have spooked Kelly), which makes their running game more one-dimensional. I also don't think their offensive line is very good. Still, they racked up 461 yards and 31 points on Sparty, and could have had more if not for two turnovers in the MSU redzone. I think MSU is vulnerable when spread out. They definitely don't have enough good cover guys in the secondary. I think we'll gameplan for them very similarly to how we planned for ND. Make sure to get a blocker on Greg Jones and force their other guys in the back seven to make a play.
October 5th, 2010 at 5:43 PM ^
I see that too. Of course, as you mention, Denard runs a lot and ND doesn't run their QB. I think that might be a big difference and more of a concern for a spread-weary Sparty.
October 5th, 2010 at 5:44 PM ^
the more important question is their run D. How have they done in the department? If we are running the ball with success, it will open up those play-action wide open routes we have seen in the prior weeks regardless of their DBs ability in coverage. Our success in the passing game, obviously, is directly related to the defense beining terrified of Denard getting to the second level and wide open space running the ball.
October 5th, 2010 at 5:50 PM ^
Check out the defensive UFR for last year's game.
http://mgoblog.com/content/upon-further-review-defense-vs-michigan-stat…
Our DBs played 10-15 yards off the line of scrimmage, allowing MSU QBs to make easy passes all day long. If we do that on Saturday, we are going to allow way more than the 20 points we allowed last year in regulation. Cousins is more experienced, and they have a better running game, than last year.
I think we win, but it's going to be another 42-35 kind of score. Their pro-style setup is going to be hard-pressed to defend a spread attack, because they don't go up against it in practice.
October 5th, 2010 at 5:55 PM ^
We will see a return to an offensive gameplan focussed on runs to the outside (like the ND game) allowing the play to move away from a dominant MLB (ND's Te'o and G. Jones) giving our OL time to get to the second level and cut off their most threatening defensive player before he can get to the point of attack -- while at the same time taking advantage of MSU's weak DEs with one-on-one's from our OTs.
With the proven downfield blocking by our WRs on their CBs and Safeties we should be able to do most damage on the outside and not have to test the middle. Add the element of D. Rob running right and freezing the DBs, then stopping on a dime and throwing to Stonum/Hemingway deep will create chaos for MSU
Additionally, I think Webb and Koger from the HB spot moving to crack DL while Schilling and Omameh get to the second level is going to be key
Basically, seeing the dominant blocking by both our OL and WRs all year, and now seeing the HBs Webb and Koger dominate makes me feel really good about our offense this week moreso than worrying about our defense this week. Looks like another 40-30 type game
October 5th, 2010 at 7:15 PM ^
you nailed it. The key offensively in our running game is whether or not Koger/Webb can handle the DE/OLB, and then whether Omameh keeps up his apparent love of destroying all things LB. Greg Jones/Gordon vs Omameh might be a 1v1 battle on some plays that could swing the game either way in tremendous fashion.
The LBs and DTs for MSU have to literaly play the game of their lives just to contain our O. The minute we convince their porous secondary that they have to help the front 7 in run support, the game is essentially over as long as Michigan executes.
I'll take our chances in a shootout. Our offense can score faster and with more people than theirs.
October 5th, 2010 at 8:03 PM ^
I'm not sure we want to avoid Greg Jones; I think we want to run the ball right at him and have him deal with a pulling guard or lead blocker. A guy like that needs to be accounted for in the blocking scheme.
October 5th, 2010 at 5:56 PM ^
Moou will be missing a D tackle and D end also.
October 5th, 2010 at 6:00 PM ^
I think the UofM offense is better than MSU's, but the MSU defense is a little better than UofM's...........it will be close and high scoring (I agree with the 35+ points each)..........I think turnovers will be key in this game.........neither defense is going to really stop the other much, so it comes down to giving our offense as many opportunities to score as possible.
If one team winds up with a +2 turnover margin on the day, they most likely win.
October 5th, 2010 at 6:03 PM ^
see that fake screen/bubble QB draw that we used to get Teo out of position a number of times, especially if MSU is attacking it hard with their safeties like they did last year.
Also, how awesome would it be if we broke out TGDCD and used it effectively against Sparty, who may overreact to Denard faking a QB sweep?
October 5th, 2010 at 6:28 PM ^
Also, the fake bubble then toss to a wide open WR. They also fake Denard run and pass. As I see it, MSU's defense will have their hands full.
October 5th, 2010 at 9:37 PM ^
I think we can really expose their lack of speed with those bubble screens. ND killed them with these all game. It will be a chicken and egg moment with the bubble screens, seam routes and of course Denard runs. It will be unclear what sets up what, but I see us having our way with their D and them not really being able to commit to stopping any of these aspects of our offense.
October 5th, 2010 at 7:09 PM ^
by some people who know what they're talking about! Plussing everyone, and trying to learn from this.
October 5th, 2010 at 7:37 PM ^
Even looking at ND, Armando Allen Jr. averaged 5.5 yards a carry. Wisky ran better than 5.5 if you take out Tolzien's negative yardage. The offense doesn't have me concerned in the least. And if The D can be decent against the run, the game is ours to lose.
October 5th, 2010 at 7:41 PM ^
Yes, crowd needs to be crazy dammit!
October 5th, 2010 at 7:58 PM ^
The key to slowing down MSU's very good offense is to make them one-dimensional, and you do that by scoring early and often. Even though MSU's MO is to run the ball and then take advantage of players creeping up via play action and the occassional 3- or 4-wide sets, they are also acutely aware that UM's offense can score from anywhere on the field. That places a premium on every possession, and in turn that will make MSU more of a passing attack than they probably prefer from a playcalling perspective.
And as a general rule, the more times a team has to throw the better your chances are of creating turnovers. This defense is not going to be able to "stop" MSU consistently, but being of 10-14 points will allow them to exploit matchups and Cousins' penchant for throwing balls into coverage. Personally, I think the IU game finishes differently if UM punches it in at the 1 yard line, giving UM a 14-point cushion and really putting IU on its heels. So for this defense to succeed on Saturday, MSU needs to always be chasing UM and not be able to get into a groove running the ball.
October 5th, 2010 at 8:52 PM ^
You sure you weren't sitting at the bar with me and my cousin on Saturday during the game? I like to call it the offense being our 12th man on defense.
Michigan State is not a team that wants to be in the position of having to score. That's why it is important our offense jump on them early, preferably via one of those big plays they see on the highlight shows.
Make the trauma real for them. Getting them to press is very very important. It results in a guy being step out of position on defense, and an uncomfortable out-of-character play call on offense.
October 5th, 2010 at 9:19 PM ^
to receive?
October 5th, 2010 at 9:54 PM ^
I think your theory holds true if Michigan can go up by two scores or more. This MSU team looks different than previous teams. They trailed ND late (7pts) in the game (4th Q) and was able to come back and win in OT. Wisconsin was up early in the game (7 pts in 1st Q) and Sparty hung in and pulled out the win.
Two scores, preferably TD's, will make them desperate - knowing that the next UM possession could mean a 3 score deficit. I think Sparty can handle trailing by a small amount, not so sure about 2+ scores.
Here's hoping UM brings out the Old Sparty - where the wheels fall off after a tough loss at the Big House!
October 5th, 2010 at 9:44 PM ^
Totally agree with the IU comments and what it could mean for the MSU game. I would love for us to take the ball first and punch them right in the gut with a quick score. That gets the Big House rocking and put an "uh oh" thought in their mind. This is their first real road game and if we can cause some doubt to creep in early, maybe some poor execution on their first drive to record a stop, then possibly follow that up with another scoring drive that would obviously set up the rest of the game nicely for us. I'm very interested to see if they resort to being same old State when faced with adversity (and a deficit) in their first hostile environment of the season.
October 5th, 2010 at 9:14 PM ^
get too caught up in schemes on this one fellas and ladies. This one will come down to execution, turnovers, adjustments, and just plain will. Will should be translated into who hits who the hardest and who flinches first. The team the gives an ass whipping and can take one will win.