High Level OL Breakdown

Submitted by Space Coyote on

Here's my take on the Michigan OL situation, and the issues that the coaching staff has to balance as they move into the season. Note that this leans heavily on previous performance where available, but also has to take into account some sort of projection. The scale of quantitative words goes something like: worst, terrible, very bad, bad, below average, average, above average, good, very good, great, elite, and is based on the start of this year, not some future year.

OT: 
Runyon

Runyon is on the shorter end for what most OTs can get away with, and he's shaped like an OG to boot (shorter, squaty). That said, he is the most athletic OL on Michigan's roster. He has very good feet, can move laterally well, but still struggled last year at getting adequate depth in his drop step and ID'ing his pick ups when he did get reps. His lack of length means that if he doesn't get in proper position, it will be difficult for him to recover as he loses the battle for position and leverage. That said, he probably has the highest floor of the battling OTs because of his athleticism. You can trust he's a guy that can get leverage on down blocks, can pull or scoop on outside runs, and can generally work to the second level. If he can get the mental part a bit better, he should be a solid OT that grades out average in the pass game and is a plus in the run.

Ceiling - Very good run blocker. Above Average pass pro.

Flood - Average run blocker. Bad pass pro.

Projection - Good run blocker, average pass pro. Consistent.

JBB

JBB's biggest problem is that he's stiff and has heavy feet. What this generally means is that he doesn't maintain great balance and ends up leaning a lot. That said, he has length for days. So when he latches on he moves people, a lot. But if he doesn't latch, he will fall off blockers. If he can get position in pass pro, he's very difficult to get around because of his length, but if he misses his initial punch he struggles to re-direct at times. JBB is a bit like Braden used to be in this regard. If he can improve the mental part of the game and speed up his processing, he's a guy that can move people in the run game and at least form a formidable wall in pass pro (meaning it's relatively static, but at least people have to work to get around it). That would be an improvement from last year. The run threat is a little more limited to his side, because he doesn't move as well, he's more of a hit or miss guy in the run game, and your hope is that he turns into a steady (albeit not great) performer in pass pro. That's how he will see the field if he does.

Ceiling - Very good run blocker. Average pass pro.

Floor - Average run blocker. Very bad pass pro.

Projection - Above average run blocker (very good at some things, below average at others), below average pass pro. Relatively consistent.

Hudson

Hudson may be the OT with the most upside on the roster. That said, coming out of HS, he was a physically gifted try-hard when it came to OL play. At camps, he was a DT. He spent most of his time focusing on the other side of the ball. So while he's spent a year in the system, he's coming from further away. Being a RS FR, he probably doesn't quite have the physical strength you prefer at the position either. But again, he is probably the best blend of length and athleticism on the roster right now, so if from a mental part of the game and technique part of the game he can be average, your overall upside is going to improve pretty drastically, probably not this season so much, but if the downside is negligible, it makes sense to roll with him.

Ceiling - Good run blocker. Above average pass pro.

Floor - Below average run blocker. Bad pass pro.

Projection - Average run blocker (flashes, but some ID issues and doesn't move people), below average pass pro (some ID issues, but more upside as season progresses and could move to average or above average once he gets feet wet). Flashes toward ceiling, but inconsistent.

Mayfield

He's bigger than I thought he would be at this stage, but like any incoming FR, he's probably the size he is with a bit more bad weight than you want. He's still going to need 3 years to get his body close to the way it will be when he leaves. That said, in some ways size is size and momentum. He has decent, not great length, and is athletic. But Harbaugh's offense, even if simplified, isn't a very easy one to pick up. And college defenses are pretty complex. This move would come with the biggest downside attached to it, but also pretty significant long term upside. I hate play true FR on OL, they make busts and busts kill plays. Michigan needs to be more efficient on offense, so I question that this would be the appropriate move right now, and think it's more of a JBB/Hudson battle at this point.

Ceiling - Average run blocker. Above average pass pro.

Floor - Bad run blocking. Bad pass pro.

Projection - Average run blocker (similar to Hudson with a little less upside as he's further from play strength), below average (similar to Hudson). Flashes toward ceiling, but very inconsistent.

OG:

Bredeson

Good athlete with good technique, but still needed to get stronger (and has some small areas to clean up in technique). People forget he was a true SO last year, his body still isn't finished growing. He added some weight this offseason, and has really taken on a leadership role. If someone takes a huge jump this year, my money would be on Bredeson, who has NFL upside if he can get that strength and maintain his other strengths. Last year he was more a guy that got position on defenders but didn't move them. If he can add movement to his game, this could be a 1st All-Big player.

Ceiling - Elite run blocking. Great pass pro.

Floor - Above average run blocking. Above average pass pro.

Projection - Good run blocking. Good pass pro. Consistent.

Ruiz

Natural Center, but has to be careful not to get too big. Has good feet, but showed last year he still had to get stronger at the point of attack. You hope the extra weight does limit his footwork, which was a strength for a guy his size and why he was so touted as a center prospect. Also has large upside, but is probably still at least a year away from reaching there. Outside Gary, may be the best pure recruit of the Harbaugh era, so the hope is that he's on the good end of the spectrum leading to great in his JR year.

Ceiling - Good run blocking. Good pass pro

Floor - Average run blocking. Average pass pro.

Projection - Above average run blocking. Above average pass pro. Relatively consistent.

Onwenu

Still over weight. Has stretch armstrong arms in a squaty build with good feet *for his size*. But you always have to put that disclaimer in there. *For his size*. Imagine carrying around 30 lbs extra weight and playing at your peak. You can't, regardless of how strong you are. What this means is that he's often slow out of his stance, and can struggle re-directing in pass pro. He's very nimble when he gets going or when he can perform small movements in tight space to latch on to people. But getting up to speed has been an issue. Clean that up, he could be good. Lose weight on top of it, he could be great. He won't be there this year, so the hope is on good.

Ceiling - Very good run blocking. Good pass pro.

Floor - Average run blocking. Below average pass pro.

Projection - Good run blocking. Average pass pro. Relatively inconsistent.

Spanellis - Heady, smart player. Knows the system inside out, has solid technique, and actually plays pretty mean. That said, his biggest issue coming in what a bad body configuration. He had heavy feet and was middle heavy. He's re-worked that a bit, but he's never going to be a great athlete for the position, which limits his upside. But his floor might be higher than Onwenu at this point, which is why they are battling.

Ceiling - Good run blocking. Good pass pro.

Flood - Average run blocking. Below average pass pro.

Projection - Above average run blocking. Average pass pro. Consistent.

OT Group

Ceiling: Good run blocking with average pass pro.

Floor: Average run blocking with bad pass pro.

Projection - Runyon and Hudson start, resulting in above average run blocking and below average pass pro, making for average OTs. Wouldn't be surprised though if JBB first few games due to consistency and getting an O rhythm and got moved out if he isn't performing toward ceiling.

Interior Group

Ceiling: Great (not elite) with great LG play and very good C/RG play.

Floor: Average with above average run blocking and below average pass pro.

Projection: Good; not sure Bredeson takes the full step, and still a learning curve at Center; Onwenu wins RG and Spanellis is backup at all 3 spot without huge drop off it he has to fill in at C/RG.

Realus

August 21st, 2018 at 10:03 AM ^

Awesome!!  Much appreciated.

It's nice to see that in your opinion we have a good shot at an average to above average (possibly in the top 4) B1G OL this year.

So, IMHO, QB play will be the biggest factor in the number of wins UM gets this year.

Broken Brilliance

August 21st, 2018 at 10:04 AM ^

So what I take away is that Shea is going to have to move around a bit when they need a long pass on like a five or seven step drop, but they will also scheme some short passes, quick reads and the trademark creative screen game that always makes me cackle with glee.

I see what you mean about Onwenu changing direction in pass pro. Sort of like how Ruiz got Peters flattened against Minnesota when he had to play guard.

I'm wondering if they roll with JBB against the Irish then let Hudson get some seasoning against Western and SMU

JFW

August 21st, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

So if we know the O line is going to be questionable, and we just suffered through a season of bad QB play due to significant QB hospital time; why not going pistol/gun all the time? I know its not what he wants to do but is it because he can't run most of his offense that way? 

Is the pistol a decent compromise because you can get an RB behind you? 

Bambi

August 21st, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^

If you think anything about that tackle play was average last year, especially in pass blocking, I strongly disagree. RT was a disaster, LT was average at best. The interior of the line wasn't great either because of our inability to pick up stunts. An average tackle group with a good interior line, simplified blocking scheme, better communication from the Center position, and a better QB means a significant improvement. That's what this post is implying. Now maybe they don't play that well, and that improvement still will probably mean our OL is very overwhelmed against great DLs, but still better than last year.

Space Coyote

August 21st, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^

Agree on pass pro. Were very bad at OT, probably below average on the interior, which means a very bad pass pro OL.

Disagree a little on run blocking. Started out relatively average on the OL (TEs left a lot to be desired), I think improved to straight good by the end of last year. For a team that could not threaten down field and had to face stacked boxes, the blocking was really quite good. TE blocking even probably improved to average in run blocking (for TEs).

Bambi

August 21st, 2018 at 10:07 AM ^

If we had a good run blocking LT who was an average pass blocker but consistent and a RT group that was above average at run blocking and average-below average at pass blocking, I would be ecstatic. That doesn't even include the fact that if Hudson does play at RT he should be better by years end than he is now. That would be a huge improvement from last year and be all we need at OT to go along with our interior line and the rest of our offensive weapons.

Also just FYI it's Runyan.

outsidethebox

August 21st, 2018 at 10:08 AM ^

Good, fair, objective assessment...all the way around.  If the QB play is at least "good" and can perform at an average level in the time of possession game the sky is the limit for this team. I would think that even the most pessimistic Michigan fan would find it difficult to not project improvement over last year's debacle. 

RoseInBlue

August 21st, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^

This depressed me a bit.  That said, all of this is based on physical measures and technique.  Yes, this was an issue but it wasn't the only issue.  Missed assignments and general WTF syndrome on the line seemed to be a big issue last year.  Clean that up, and even with 0 changes on the line, we'd probably see better OL play than last year.    Everyone simply being in the right place at the right time, even if they lose the battle, would be encouraging.

Space Coyote

August 21st, 2018 at 11:17 AM ^

The mental aspect is the biggest aspect that needs improvement. Especially on the stunts and games, that was what led to the vast majority of free hitters. That was, IMO, the biggest issue last year. It's one thing to let a guy fight free and get a pressure to limit the progression or speed a QB up, it's another thing for the QB to not even complete his drop before he's feeling pressure.

Clean up the mental games in pass pro and the pass game gets much more comfortable, because you can threaten down field at least a little.

BBQJeff

August 21st, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^

Although I am not sold on Patterson, if the O-line can make considerable strides from last year and just be halfway decent, this team is a contender for the B1G and possibly a playoff spot, assuming of course our young WR's make the year 1-to-year 2 leap.  

I am in a 'I'll believe it when I see it' mode.  

BBQJeff

August 21st, 2018 at 11:45 AM ^

Based on his college highlight reel a few things jump out at me regarding Patterson.   First, he (like O'Korn and Forcier) seems to have happy feet.   I noticed a tendency to bail on the pocket when protection was still there.   Secondly, his numbers last year against good defenses were pretty bad.   Lastly, as you (Lloyd's Boy) alluded to, picking up a new system, especially one that requires more reads than what he was dealing with last year makes for a longer learning curve.

Having said all of that I absolutely think he's an upgrade at the spot over last year and the talent is there to potentially be a special QB for Michigan.  

In '15 it took Rudock several games before he settled in.   That is what has me most concerned about the opener.   This is an offense that may start off slow, even poor, and then improve considerably as the season wears on.   

In Baugh we trust

August 21st, 2018 at 2:08 PM ^

His "bailing on the pocket" is partially a function of the scheme because he would only have 2 or 3 reads on most plays. If his first couple reads weren't there, then he had no further progression other than to improvise or just run.

Also the Rudock comparison is different because Shea was on campus and practiced through all of spring camp. This means he had significantly more time and reps to learn the play book before week 1 than Rudock did.

Night_King

August 21st, 2018 at 10:25 AM ^

Agreed, next year would be the year IMO they take the biggest jump. Hopefully Warinner sticks around for a long time.

If the starters are Runyan-Bredeson-Ruiz-Onwenu-Hudson this season, the entire line would return in 2019 as well. Not to mention, guys like Filiaga, Mayfield, etc.. would be pushing for a spot. This year appears to be the last "iffy" year at the tackle position. You have to imagine that Hudson will be very, very solid by 2019. Maybe better than any tackle we've had over the last few years. 

Sten Carlson

August 21st, 2018 at 10:28 AM ^

Last year’s OL was a problem, true; however, the issues were compounded by QB and WR play.  Often we’d see glaringly wide open WR, TE, and RB’s missed or thrown poorly timed passes.  Yes, some of that was on the OL, but  some of the blamefalls upon the lack of chemistry between the QB and pass catches.  Time and again Michigan would try to punish opposing defenses for daring them to throw, and they couldn’t execute, and not only because there was pressure.  There is always going to be pressure when the opposing defense overloads.  It’s up to the QB and WR to be on the same page and get their check down correct to get the ball out quickly.  That shouldn’t be as much of an issue this year due to Patterson’s quick release, but also the WR/TE/RB’s improving.  

Watching From Afar

August 21st, 2018 at 10:47 AM ^

I agree in part, but it's a chicken/egg scenario.

Even though Speight looked rattled in all of his playing time last year, you put him in against OSU with the WRs running wide open and he at least identifies them. Maybe he sails the throw over DPJ's head (like he did Perry in the Florida game), maybe he hits him in the chest (like Black in the Florida game). Either way, I'd bet he at least sees him standing 10 yards in front of his face with no one around.

The problem was the OL was so bad that we didn't get to see Speight run the offense when the WRs and TEs (and Evans) were getting open because he was already in a neck brace by that time.

DCGrad

August 21st, 2018 at 10:33 AM ^

Great breakdown! Question for you, Space Coyote. Do you think they could move Bredeson outside?  I realize he’s not a tackle in size, but he may have the quickness.

A line with Bredeson-Spanellis-Ruiz-Onwenu-Runyan May produce more consistent results than two volatile tackles.  

I know Mason Cole could have been a better player if he was on the interior (where he should have been) but he was an average/above average tackle.  Average play at all 5 spots with above-average to great ceilings at some spots could be all the offense needs to win games. 

Space Coyote

August 21st, 2018 at 11:21 AM ^

I thought they were going to try Bredeson at RT in the off season or at least Spring, and they never seemed to. So at this point, no, I don't think Bredeson ever moves outside. I think his upside at OT is similar to Cole's, so I think they want other guys to step up (that have higher upside) and fill the position and let Bredeson maximize his potential on the inside. I think for the 2018 season, there is ~0% chance of Bredeson playing OT. If it were to happen, it would happen over an off season.

Watching From Afar

August 21st, 2018 at 1:01 PM ^

Not SC obviously, but Bredeson's name has not come up in the OT conversation since the fall of his freshman year when he was competing with Newsome for the starting LT spot.

People asked if he'd move out after Newsome's injury and it didn't happen.

People asked if he'd move out at the start of 2017 so Cole could play C or RT and it didn't happen.

At this point, it's never going to happen.

JHumich

August 21st, 2018 at 10:38 AM ^

All subjective and "projection" not based on any empirical observation of development under Herbert/Warinner

The actual season cannot arrive quickly enough...

MGoStrength

August 21st, 2018 at 10:46 AM ^

Unfortunately this sounds all too familiar to last year with slight upticks...which means the offense is going to have to improve a lot and score more points to beat the better defensive teams on the schedule (ND, MSU, PSU, Wiscy, & OSU).  If we can find a way to win 3/5 it will be a fantastic season.  If we lose to MSU (blitz pickup) & OSU (DE nightmares) there will be many unhappy fans.  Here's to Patterson making some plays!

AC1997

August 21st, 2018 at 11:11 AM ^

Unfortunately you're correctly talking about the pessimistic side of the equation.  In order for 2018 to be better than 2017 you're banking on some combination of the following:

  • OL Coaching staff/strategy is significantly improved/simplified/rational
  • The fact that 7 of the 8 guys contending are returning players and 5 have starting experience helps.  All of them except JBB are still  young and thus should expect improvement with experience.  
  • New strength coach
  • Kugler was part of the problem last year on the interior, which was the biggest part of the issue with drive killing negative plays.  (i.e. it is easier to scheme around your OT getting beat around the edge than it is your interior getting owned)

I think all of those things will help.  But to expect the improvement to be drastic is foolish.  We're hoping for stability and minimizing the drive-killing blunders.  We could run the ball pretty well in 2017 and that should continue.  So if we can just reduce the passing screw ups we'll see benefits.....but we're at least a year away from being "good".  

Space Coyote

August 21st, 2018 at 11:32 AM ^

I don't think Kugler was a major contributor to the line problems last year. He had his issues, but he isn't bad as a grad assistant if he's making basic line mistakes. 

I think OL simplification in pass pro and really taking an offseason to focus on stunt pickups can help a lot. As I noted elsewhere, there were way too many free rushers last year that need to be cleaned up.

As far as the strength coach, I will also say the emphasis isn't just a change in the actual coach, but from the program (Harbaugh). Harbaugh directed a lot more focus on conditioning previously, which isn't so much the case with the new staff, where he decided he wanted to focus much more on getting stronger.

Mongo

August 21st, 2018 at 1:10 PM ^

Agreed - strength and conditioning was off-season priority #1.  From the accolades Jansen is giving out, it sounds like every person on the OL made improvements in pushing that 900lb sled.  Now we will see if Coach Ed can teach them how to use that new found strength with better technique within a simpler schematic approach. 

Run blocking is going to be a strength again for this unit, likely better than end of last year.  Pass pro will be tested under live bullets, but I think Shea's mobility will lessen some of the stunts and free-running blitzes.  Our QBs last year were not mobile enough and the better team's just attacked at free will.  This year, Shea has the ability to elude the blitz and turn that into a big gainer.  Team's are going have to factor that in and respect it or get burned.