Guessing Our Tournament Chances
My assumptions:
-46% chance to beat Iowa (Kenpom)
-65% chance to win first BTT game (we were 77% to beat NW at home on Kenpom last week so I figure that's a conservative guess on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-30% chance to win 2nd round BTT game (we were 22% to win at Maryland on Kenpom last week, 30% seems reasonable on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-25% to win a semifinal game in BTT (same logic as above plus fatigue and possibly better opponent)
Scenario 1: If we beat Iowa and lose first BTT game, 80% chance to make tournament (these are all guesses, you might disagree)
Scenario 2: If we beat Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 95% chance to make tournament
Scenario 3: If we beat Iowa and win two BTT games, 100% chance to make tournament
Scenario 4: If we lose to Iowa and lose first BTT game, 10% chance to make tournament
Scenario 5: If we lose to Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 50% chance to make tournament
Scenario 6: If we lose to Iowa and go 2-1 in BTT, 80% chance to make tournament
Scenario 7: If we lose to Iowa and reach BTT finals, 100% chance to make tournament
If you do the math based on my assumptions above and add up the chances of these scenarios actually happening, you get:
Scenario 1 (12.88%) + Scenario 2 (20.93%) + Scenario 3 (8.97%) + Scenario 4 (1.89%) + Scenario 5 (12.29%) + Scenario 6 (6.32%) + Scenario 7 (2.63%)= 65.91% chance for Michigan to make the tournament
Does that sound right or are my guesses too generous/harsh?
February 29th, 2016 at 1:13 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 1:23 AM ^
Thanks for fixing the format. Numbers look about right. I'm not really sure beating Iowa is going to seal the deal either. I'd feel a lot more confident if we can pull off 3 more wins. Anything less and Im going to be really nervous during the selections.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:16 AM ^
No matter what happens, we CAN NOT lose that first BTT game. That would be a bad loss against an already weak resume.
The first BTT game is the start of our NCAA tournament. It is a de-facto play-in game for us.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:18 AM ^
Formatting issues on iPad, should be fixed now.
February 29th, 2016 at 1:21 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 1:24 AM ^
Only 3 realistic scenarios - beat Iowa and win 1, beat Iowa and lose 1, and lose and lose.
2 of 3 get us in, I think. if not, JB is on a pretty hot seat...
February 29th, 2016 at 2:40 AM ^
i agree things could be better. i just don't see JB ever being fired.
February 29th, 2016 at 6:23 AM ^
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February 29th, 2016 at 7:06 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:08 AM ^
Unintentional dark humor.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:08 AM ^
Unintentional dark humor.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:20 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 11:40 AM ^
We missed the tournament ten straight years, and mostly stood pat during that time. We hadn't made a regional in almost two decades. Do people honestly think Beilein's going to be fired if he missed the tournament two years out of six, or three of seven?
February 29th, 2016 at 12:16 PM ^
you raise the caliber of a program, you are now stuck with the expectations that you created. It may not seem fair, but that is the way it is. There have been major performance and recruiting issues here since their back to back tournaments, with the recruiting issues occuring for about 4 years now. The way they play defense is not acceptable for a high level college program. I love Beilein, he is one of my all time favorite basketball coaches, but he is not going to be able to live on that Final Four forever.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:59 PM ^
A lot of fans think that way but most athletic directors are smarter than this. Ours sure as hell is.
Letting coaches set their own bar, effectively rewarding failure and punishing success, is how you end up being Rutgers.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:28 AM ^
losing to Iowa and winning 1 in BTT? IMO I don't think that would get us in.
February 29th, 2016 at 9:57 AM ^
I don't think that gets them in either. At that point there'll be a lot of scoreboard watching to see what's happening with other bubble teams.
February 29th, 2016 at 11:13 AM ^
If this is true, then I say our chances of dancing should be lower per the OP. IOW, I think losing to Iowa and winning one BTT game is our most likely outcome and if that does not get us in, then the overall dancing probability should be less than OP's 65%.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:11 PM ^
as like in his job? no way not a chance.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:35 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:11 AM ^
That's more like a snowball's chance in the Sahara Desert.
February 29th, 2016 at 2:27 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 3:54 AM ^
If a team with 20 wins and 10 Big Ten wins isn't one of the 68 best teams in the country, the system is fucked up.
February 29th, 2016 at 4:11 AM ^
You realize it's 19 according to the NCAA right? DII teams don't count.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:41 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 8:58 AM ^
I don't understand how this works...Sparty plays Northern and it is an "exhibition" game. We play them and it is not. How is that call made ?
February 29th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
Unless you are SEC football.
February 29th, 2016 at 6:15 AM ^
Are we one of the 50 best? That is the question, and that is highly debatable.
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February 29th, 2016 at 9:23 AM ^
That makes the committee look at more than just the # of wins. We played MSU, Indiana, OSU and Wisconsin once. Maryland and Iowa we'll play twice. We need to beat Iowa now that OSU beat them (and beat us as well). And we'll need to beat a tourney bound team in the BTT. Beating NW or Minnesota again would do nothing major for us.
February 29th, 2016 at 9:58 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 11:35 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 12:03 PM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 2:19 PM ^
would have played the entire Big Ten schedule with a starting lineup of Donnal, Irvin, Walton, Robinson and MAAR, I would have expected at their best maybe a .500 conference record overall which looks to right where they will be.
February 29th, 2016 at 5:46 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 6:05 AM ^
I understand from the small school perspective that making the dance is an accomplishment and exciting. But from a team like Michigan having no chance at success just delays the inevitable.
February 29th, 2016 at 6:21 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 6:28 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:18 AM ^
No chance at success?
Hell, fellow bubble team VCU just lost to 210 KenPom George Mason.
You're way too negative. Yet somehow assume winning the NIT is a given.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:43 AM ^
Yea its like why go to the rose bowl and potentially lose, when you could go to the BWW bowl and be able to dominate a MAC team. And, to your point on home games, its in Detroit!
/s
NIT has no cachet, almost better to stay home. You think Top 50 recruits are like wow, UM made it pretty far this year in the NIT - with me, they could win the whole NIT next year!!!
February 29th, 2016 at 6:14 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:25 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:13 AM ^
Michigan's Tourney chances are on par with the chances that Walton and Irvin had to make those gimme layups. Sure it looks doable, but they'll find a way to F it up.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:04 AM ^
And that has been happing in more than one game - missed layups missed dunks missed freethrows.
I don't think I've ever seen a Div I player miss a layup or a dunk until Michigan this year.
We are going to get crushed in the Big Ten tourney and then crushed in the NIT.
If these players don't do some heavy growing up offseason, next year will probably be Beilein's last.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:14 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 2:23 PM ^
Beilein is getting fired.
I bet he's in the top 10% of CBB coaches of safest job.
Beilein is an excellent teacher and first class guy and someone who's won at very high levels here in the past. There's no way Michigan will get rid of him, no way.
February 29th, 2016 at 7:36 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 7:38 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 8:08 AM ^
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