Guessing Our Tournament Chances
My assumptions:
-46% chance to beat Iowa (Kenpom)
-65% chance to win first BTT game (we were 77% to beat NW at home on Kenpom last week so I figure that's a conservative guess on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-30% chance to win 2nd round BTT game (we were 22% to win at Maryland on Kenpom last week, 30% seems reasonable on a neutral court against the similar type of team we'd play)
-25% to win a semifinal game in BTT (same logic as above plus fatigue and possibly better opponent)
Scenario 1: If we beat Iowa and lose first BTT game, 80% chance to make tournament (these are all guesses, you might disagree)
Scenario 2: If we beat Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 95% chance to make tournament
Scenario 3: If we beat Iowa and win two BTT games, 100% chance to make tournament
Scenario 4: If we lose to Iowa and lose first BTT game, 10% chance to make tournament
Scenario 5: If we lose to Iowa and go 1-1 in BTT, 50% chance to make tournament
Scenario 6: If we lose to Iowa and go 2-1 in BTT, 80% chance to make tournament
Scenario 7: If we lose to Iowa and reach BTT finals, 100% chance to make tournament
If you do the math based on my assumptions above and add up the chances of these scenarios actually happening, you get:
Scenario 1 (12.88%) + Scenario 2 (20.93%) + Scenario 3 (8.97%) + Scenario 4 (1.89%) + Scenario 5 (12.29%) + Scenario 6 (6.32%) + Scenario 7 (2.63%)= 65.91% chance for Michigan to make the tournament
Does that sound right or are my guesses too generous/harsh?
February 29th, 2016 at 8:26 AM ^
We have no bad losses, but I wonder if the committee takes into account how we lost? Getting the doors blown off and/or run out of our home arena in quite a few of those losses.
I am not at all confident in the direction of the basketball program. Next year isn't looking any better.
February 29th, 2016 at 9:35 AM ^
think the nature of the losses will really be a factor.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:29 AM ^
Before the game yesterday, the projected probability of Michigan making the tournament per TeamRankings was about 70%, and as of this morning, it has fallen to 53.4%, which right now seems right to me. If the season ended right now, we'd probably be about a coin flip even after considering the auto-bids that we know tend to take valuable space in regional brackets.
It makes beating Iowa or, failing that, kicking serious ass in the first couple rounds in the BTT (which they might need to do regardless now) that much more crucial. They are still listed as a likely 12-seed on TeamRankings, but that may change too.
February 29th, 2016 at 8:35 AM ^
We get a bye in the BTT, win that 1st game and game 2 is likely to be against someone like Maryland or MSU. We have a shot vs Maryland, the last bracket I saw had us playing MSU in the quarters on the BTT, did anyone see them play yesterday? We have no chance to beat them right now.
February 29th, 2016 at 9:48 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 10:01 AM ^
IU still has Iowa and Maryland left so they haven't clinched the #1 seed. I believe they've clinched a share of the Big Ten title though. One more way and they win it outright.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:24 AM ^
actually take MSU over Indiana. Indiana is DOOM to Michigan. That is a really bad matchup for us.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:48 AM ^
Not a chance, I've watched MSU a few times in the last couple weeks, they have taken their game to another level, the speed they are playing with is too much for any team in the conference to handle right now, including Indiana.
February 29th, 2016 at 11:07 AM ^
Since MSU lost 3 in a row, they have won 9 out of 10 and these are their results:
Mary 74-65
@NW 76-45
Rutgers 96-62
@UM 89-73
@Purdue 71-72
IU 88-69
Wisky 69-57
@OSU 81-62
@PSU 88-57
They're destroying people - doesn't matter whether the opponent is in first place or last place. Some of those final scores are closer than the games actually were (UM, IU, Wisky).
February 29th, 2016 at 8:39 AM ^
February 29th, 2016 at 9:03 AM ^
I watch every game but am not very emotionally invested in this team. They are trying hard and are good kids but we are just not a very competitive team for many reasons. Seeing Caris and Spike on the bench every game, likely to include Senior Night, just seems to make it worse.
Whether it is the NCAAs or the NIT, I'll be supporting the team but my expectations are minimal and I'll just enjoy the ride. Go Blue!
February 29th, 2016 at 9:04 AM ^
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February 29th, 2016 at 9:10 AM ^
I think there is a 70 to 80 percent chance that MICH makes the tourney
February 29th, 2016 at 9:16 AM ^
Lunardi's Bracketology has us as one of the Last Four In. Seems about right.
February 29th, 2016 at 9:36 AM ^
So, assuming we are one of the last 4 in at the moment, going 1-2 in our last 3 games does what for our hopes? Assuming lose to Iowa go 1-1 in the BTT. I think we have to beat Iowa and win a game in the BTT to get in, that would put us at 21-11 and an RPI in the low 50s.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:03 AM ^
Going 1-2 in the last 3 games puts UM at the mercy of what other teams do. Going 2-1 I think puts UM in the tourney.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:28 AM ^
This is why I thought Wisconsin was a "must win" game. Yeah, Iowa is struggling but they're still a good team that is going to be pissed off. So if we lose to Iowa we'd have to win 2 games (!) in the BTT to secure a spot. Yikes.
February 29th, 2016 at 10:04 AM ^
If we dont make the tournament this year it will be an epic failure. Considering 2 tourny teams, Louisville and SMU are ineligible, the bubble this year is soft as ever. I really hope we pull one out against Iowa. I think we will put up a great game considering we usually play well after a week off. We need to win that and first round of BTT to feel secure. I'd say chances of that happening are around 45-50%. Very doable. It'd be great to see this team make the tournament and have Caris return for a few minutes a game. Even if he doesnt though, the one good thing about Beilein's teams are they usually step up their game in March (except in 2012 when they lost the 13 seeded Ohio, which sucked, I was at that game).
February 29th, 2016 at 10:05 AM ^
Also fck leap years, one day extra before the tourny starts D:
February 29th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^
To feel remotely secure, they need to beat Iowa and hopefully Penn State in the first round of the BTT AND have both Penn State and NC State get back into the Top 100 in RPI. Michigan has 3 Top 100 RPI wins. That would be tied for the lowest number for an at large team in recent history.
A win against Iowa would also give us a 4th Top 25 RPI win and only 4 schools would have more than that: Kansas, Virginia, West Virginia, and Iowa State. (A bunch more would be tied).
At this point, I'm not optimistic. This feels like one of those Amaker teams that went through the motions every year and would lose to a crappy team in the BTT and end up as a 1 or 2 seed in the NIT.
February 29th, 2016 at 12:07 PM ^
it bolis down to Iowa...Win and were in lose and were out