Great Joel Klatt M-OSU film breakdown
Happy Thanksgiving, Comrades!
Here is some great film breakdown by Joel Klatt to whet your appetites for Turkey Day. He emphasizes the ability of JJ, Corum, TreVeyon, and Marvin to "play above the Xs and Os," the Michigan DL, and the adjustment by Jim Knowles to leave one safety high. The graphics are excellent and worth your time.
Bonus commentary from Klatt here.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
I can not lie but MHJ and Stover scare me and I still have questions about of the CBs and LBs in this game. The D line really needs to get into McCord's head by by living in the OSU backfield forcing him to make critical mistakes. I also would love to Sainistril deny Stover again.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
Yes Colson has to have a great game not one of his hit and miss games , needs to tackle
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
Henderson scares me. If he's getting big chunk yards, we will have to bring more towards the line and leave the secondary open
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
Yeah. I feel like Hendersin is going to get some yards, but the defense needs to limit his chunk plays. 25 carries for around 100 yds, okay. 25 carries for 150 yds or more and it could be a long day.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:31 AM ^
Good. Because if you said nothing worries you about that team, you’d be an ill-prepared idiot, like Denzel Burke.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:40 AM ^
Same here, but then I remember that Ohio State's offense has been stalled by far lesser defenses. McCord falls apart when he goes up against zone defenses and especially when the d line can get to him. Michigan's DTs can get to the QB unlike anyone they've faced this year. That's a nightmare matchup for OSU. ReWatching the 2021 game, Stroud kept them in the game by using his feet to keep plays alive, particularly in the second half. It's really hard to imagine OSU being able to do much of anything with McCord at QB, unless our defense really just fell off from the last two seasons.
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
I agree with almost everything you said. Our defense is almost the ideal scheme that you need to stop Ohio State. The only thing that I worry about when people say “they’ve been stalled by lesser defenses than us“ is that we will absolutely get Ohio states best effort. Just like we were not all that focused against Maryland, my guess is that Ohio State somewhat dials it in against 2/3 of their schedule, knowing that they will win, fairly comfortably based upon superior talent. They don’t spend all year scheming for Rutgers, or Nebraska, but they do spend all year scheming, practicing And preparing for this one game. So yes, I do think that they have weaknesses on offense, and that other teams have been Abel to stop them. I just feel that in the game, all that goes out the window.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:12 PM ^
Hmmmn.......they might also get our best effort. I'm calling the "best effort" balance a wash.
November 23rd, 2023 at 5:54 PM ^
Agreed. About done with the hand wringing and baby talk. Michigan is going to beat the brakes off this team. Of course I’ll be nervous at kick off , it will pass. We have the better QB , RB’s , offense line, and defense line. It’s also a home game. Relax and have a homebrew….
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:44 AM ^
Henderson scares me more than either of those two. I have seen our D-line let guys get through only to be chased down from behind by the second level. I haven’t seen anyone chase Henderson down from behind yet this year. If we can maintain our focus on the D-line for the entire game and avoid the big plays, I think Michigan will cruise.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^
With all due respect to Henderson, he has two highlight reel TD's this year that we keep seeing over and over to convince us how incredible he is (and of course Edwards has two from The Game last year, but no one is talking about him). He looks good for sure, and he makes people miss and then explodes. But he has done this recently against shit defenses who don't control the line of scrimmage. We can survive one explosive run from him anyway. He is not a down-to-down back who moves the chains which is what wins this game. If you look at this history, other than the 2 Don Brown head-against-a-brick-wall games, this series is won by the team that can move the chains and get the hard first downs. MHJ is not going to win this game. 3rd and 2 and 4th and 1 are.
We also have the advantage of knowing what play they are calling on every snap. So fuck OSU.
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
McCord vs a clean pocket or pressure is key. His #s drop way off without a clean pocket
Our D line needs to feast with an occasional side of Michael Barrett.
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
The other thing that can rattle McCord (and we've shown abundant evidence of our capabilities here) is an interception. I'm looking at you Mikey. McCord is going to turtle up for the game is he feels that half the time he drops back he ends up sacked or intercepted.
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:59 AM ^
Ryan day is not stupid. As much as he likes to throw, he knows stroud isn’t the qb. They are going to run heavy and get Henderson involved early. He’s not gonna drop back McCord a bunch of times knowing that’s what we want in order to force mistakes. Defense has to be sharp and I’d stack the box and make Henderson earn every yard.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:33 PM ^
This right here...UM HAS to stop Henderson period. They didn't face him last year and he's better than he was 2 years ago. Dude is the key to the game and Meyer has been in Day's ass since last year about the importance of running and stopping the run. And 'Tough Day' Ryan has to know his everything is on the line and it would be career suicide to put it all on the shoulders of his first year QB.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:11 PM ^
Stover is no more scary than a good receiving TE on any team. He's no Brock Bowers. I wouldn't even take him over Barner because he can't block. The key to this game is our DL in the face of whatever the middling QB's name is. If they are in his face, he can't do much. OSU has not faced a DL like ours this year and the strength of ours (DT) goes against the weakness of theirs (C/G). I remember 2006 when I thought our DL would be the difference (and that was against a better OSU OL) but Troy Smith's ability to improvise proved the difference. OSU lacks that ability now. Dramatically lacks it. They'll be throwing on most short yardage because Ryan Day's testicles still haven't descended.
Also, Klatt is chirping a talking point that is really stale already, and that is that OSU is "peaking". Well, MSU and Minnesota at home have that effect, don't they? Three weeks ago they were trailing Rutgers in the second half, but sure. Same rehash every year, diminishing respect for UM, asymptotic respect for OSU in late November. The funny thing is that it used to be largely based on the eye-test of common opponent scores, which was, to the ignorant, much in favor of OSU based on the way the two teams plays football differently. But this year, that stat actually favors us, even in these last two "peaking" blowouts by OSU. Whatever. Even Klatt needs clicks. From what I've seen this year, I just can't imagine Kyle McCord coming into Michigan Stadium and beating this team, short of some catastrophic self-inflicted failures.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
The one thing I’ll say to defend Klatt is that OSU’s health is peaking, especially with Henderson back and Denzel Burke and Egbuka.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:12 AM ^
Corum has to have a better day than Henderson. It's just that simple.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
I think you’re spot on. In this game we also need to get away from playing for third and longs on offense. Corum and Edwards will be key in picking up more than 1-2 yards per carry on first and second.
November 23rd, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
I Have a feeling we see a lot more Mullings on power sets early in the game, to soften up OSU’s line.
I think The Don will be used more as a receiver and then on outside runs later in the game.
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
I think it’s JJ’s legs that could extend drives and be the threat that keeps OSU on the field,
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
This. Get JJ out of the pocket and let him create. The Loveland TD example Klatt used in the video is prime JJ being JJ. If given opportunities to create like that, he will make defenses pay 100% of the time. Make them choose which way they want to lose, stop Blake/Edwards or JJ on the ground, they can’t do both.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Go Blue.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
JJ and Corum have to outplay McCord and TreVyon. I think our TEs will have a better day than Stover. DE could be a wildcard. If he goes off, ala matches TreVyon, BC can feast on them. Will be exciting matchup.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:25 AM ^
Henderson's jump cuts look much more dangerous than what we've seen before.
November 23rd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
I felt the two examples really highlighted the importance of the D staying gap sound.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
Henderson's teleporting is the only part of the film that I didn't immediately think "here's why that won't work against Michigan... _____" based upon what I've learned from the excellent writing on this blog.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:29 AM ^
“If you’re gonna send everyone you have got to be gap sound.”
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:34 AM ^
I think it’s Egbuka (sp?), WR2 vs CB2, that’s going to be our biggest problem. You have to double MHjr (at least) and then choice is Wallace largely alone on Egbuka or 1 or 2 men short in the box vs Henderson. Our front 7 have to have one of their best games to keep them 24 or under. Then need OTs at least near holding their own so offense can score 28+. And do all that without a coach and against the all-out nuclear psy ops. If any team can do it, it’s 2023 UM Wolverines, but that’s a lot. This whole bullshitty bullshit pisses me off. Should’ve been a pure football game for the ages, straight up, but it’s been pissed on
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:41 AM ^
If you double MHJ you could use Wallace and leave Johnson 1v1 on 2nd receiver. Doubling with Johnson allocates a lot of resources.
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
I thought about this, but MHjr may well require that many resources, and still going to get some. Need to keep that some to low-mid tho. It’s also possible you put Mikey on Egbuka and McBurrows & LBs on Stover, and try rolling that way like they did at end of Md game. If were going to do that, tho, wish they’d repped it more over the year. It’s just a tough haul to cover all their skill players. Need DL to get you even there, and then McCord has to not go off despite that. I think he won’t/can’t — as long as our DL keeps showing out like it has done
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:42 AM ^
Big Game Don will be there with 2 hands
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:50 AM ^
Maybe he needs to put the club on his hand
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:47 AM ^
Great breakdown. A little interesting the last 2 clips he talks about Ohio St moving a safety back on 3rd and short to prevent big plays, but the LBs made the tackle on both clips after the 1st down was picked up. Will be fun to watch that cat and mouse game. We know Moore will be patient enough and happy to consistently run for 4-5 yds if it's there and wear out OSU. I also think Corum and especially edwards will still beat that safety if there's a mistake up front and they get a running start.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:56 AM ^
As long as the DL plays like it has all year, and can get push like it has against other OL's in the same rankings area as OSU is, we'll be alright. Anytime you can make the QB think about the pressure and be forced to move around, you have the advantage. Honda will hit some to MHJ from time to time, because he's F'in MHJ - and J is better than his dad (or will be, IMO). But that's okay - just make them drive the field consistently. So long as the DL plays as well as it has all year, they won't be 'driving the field' consistently much more than any other team has.
One of the Defenses issues will hinge on Colson - can he be reliable in zone coverage, or will he eliminate grass?
Offensively, its pretty easy to figure out - does JJ have an early season game in him, or will he play like he has in the last three? My thought is that he wins the game. The kid just plain shows up in big games. He's what we like to call 'a gamer' - he plays his best in the biggest games. If we do, in fact, get that JJ, OSU doesn't stand a chance.
November 23rd, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
This video is excellent. And it has gotten me that much more excited, scared and a bundle of nervous energy. Two more days. LFG!
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^
My view is.. the outcome will depend on disruption. That begins in the lines - and specifically, which D is more effective at disrupting the cadence / QB / RB / receiving corps.
My hope is that JJ will be back to (or very near) 100% - his mobility, accuracy, and experience - IMO, provide an advantage to Michigan at the QB position.
I’m not counting any chickens - and hope Michigan Stadium is as loud - or louder - than the last time the Bucks visited Ann Arbor. There’s nothing like an OSU procedural infraction - false start, delay of game, etc - to incite the Michigan fan base to get “even louder”.
Go Blue!
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:17 AM ^
Anybody notice he started Michigan's defensive keys with something we already do well (stopping the run on 1st) but he starts OSU's defensive keys talking about all the busts from last year? Bad sign. I highly enjoyed those replays, 10/10.
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:36 AM ^
Ohio state offense has a RedZone problem from the games I've watched. Bend but don't break defense! in 2021 Henderson avg 4.4 yards( 75 yards and 1 TD) , JSN, Wilson, Stroud and even Olave had very good productivity. Keep everything in front of you and make them drive the field..
The other side of the ball I think our TEs vs their LB is a real advantage.. Morgan , CJ , Barner, and Loveland need to be involved. Make their defense have to respect everything. Hate to be negative but DE cant be in to *pass protect* on obvious passing plays.
go blue !
November 23rd, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
The only thing I'll say about Henderson, who is a really good back, is that he's been looking much better against bad rush defenses. He chewed up Minnesota and MSU with big runs but at this point I think UM could live with him chugging along decently if it meant keeping their receivers in check. OSU isn't built nor inclined to go on 12-play drives where they run the ball 9-10 times. They were reasonably effective last year running the ball in spurts but the ball out of Harrison's hands is a win.
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:19 AM ^
So, OSU decided that they should have a safety. Hmmm. That seems like a solid idea. Last year they stacked the box to prevent us grinding it out and it didn't work for them. I think we'll be happy to PSU them and grind them to dust. That said everyone wants to see JJ complete some passes and make some big plays. It will be good to see us against another top defense.
Like others I'm concerned about Henderson playing well. We really haven't seen much of him the past couple of years due to injury. Hopefully he's overrated and not the second coming of Ezekiel Elliott. I think that stopping him is key. If we're worried about Henderson, it will get MHJ and company open.
I think this is going to be a huge competitive game.
November 23rd, 2023 at 11:35 AM ^
It's all about the play in the trenches, per usual. If Michigan's DL can create the same havoc they have created all year, it will bode well. Get pressure on the QB and lock down running lanes. But equally important is the Michigan OL taking a step forward in this game, specifically the OT positions. We need the two-deep on both OL and DL to have stellar games. If they do, then things will be a lot easier for Michigan.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^
Idk im not worried about two players. Give MHJ and Henderson two touchdowns apiece and we can win 41-31 or something.
November 23rd, 2023 at 12:34 PM ^
the one thing that gives me a bit of confidence is that generally speaking, the team with better QB play tends to win. We have the better QB. I think the panic over one bad game against Maryland by JJ is overblown. Throughout his career, we’ve seen that he is at his best, when the training wheels are off and he is allowed to run the ball. My sense is that against both Penn State and Maryland, he was basically playing in bubble wrap. Yes, Penn State was a huge game, but if you run the probabilities and analysis, the reality is that we could afford to lose either of those games . It all came down to Ohio State. A One loss Michigan team that beats Ohio State and wins the Big Ten championship is making the playoffs. A Michigan Michigan team that loses to Ohio State doesn’t make the Big Ten championship and the playoffs. I think the past two weeks were really about keeping JJ and as many players as possible healthy. Historically, JJ does not look good in those games. my sense is that against Ohio State, JJ will be fully unleashed and will look a lot more like he did in last year’s iteration of the game then what we’ve seen over the past two weeks.