Good ESPN+ (sorry!) Article on BBall's Struggles

Submitted by smwilliams on January 13th, 2022 at 9:03 AM

https://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/insider/story/_/id/33050142/wrong-michigan-wolverines-fixable-college-basketball-coaches-weigh-in

ESPN has a good article up with some insight from other coaches about why the basketball team has struggled so far this year. It is ESPN+ so I'll try and summarize some points (but I would recommend getting the ESPN+, Hulu, Disney+ bundle for a great value):

- Losses can't be overstated. Wagner, Livers, Brown are NBA players. Smith and Davis were veteran leaders.

- Houston and Diabate haven't lived up to the hype.

- No shot creation on the perimeter. Jones isn't Mike Smith.

- Defensively, they're not dropping Hunter back as much as they did Teske or last year and they don't have the instincts as a team to make that work. Pointed on ball screen defense as a big issue.

- Howard hasn't forgotten how to coach and upside is there defensively, but less so on the offensive end.

Blau

January 13th, 2022 at 9:11 AM ^

Really wish we did have a #justashooter on this team or at least someone who can be relied on to make a three when we need it. Livers, Brown and to a degree Smith had the knockdown jumper, three ball or hook to fall back on in crucial moments. At least if shots fall, we'll have a chance in some of these games.

7-6 is not a great look for a team that was preseason top 10. If anyone can turn it around, it's Juwan Howard.

Gree4

January 13th, 2022 at 9:22 AM ^

Youre 100% correct - there is zero clutch shooting outside of Eli right now. UM is easy to defend when they cannot buy shots.

Brown off the bench was huge, but they miss Austin Davis also. Davis could make an opportunity out of nothing - with hustle alone.

 

 

 

HailHail47

January 13th, 2022 at 10:50 AM ^

And that’s the difference between a subpar basketball team and a NC contender. Last year, Baylor had 5 guys last year that could shoot approx 40% from three. One or two of those guys are going to get hot every game. Some of the best Beilein teams had three guys shooting about that well. This team has maybe one guy that can shoot that well, and you can’t spread the court well when there is just one guy because he’ll attract the best off-ball defender. 

swn

January 13th, 2022 at 12:49 PM ^

He's been exactly as billed. Crazy athletic and talented but raw and skinny. Someone who could go in the lottery because of potential more than production, even though he has been impactful.

It's Houstan who has not been at all as billed. A supposedly college ready plug and play guy who can shoot the lights out. He's gotten a hot hand now and then but has also had some horrid outings and he's otherwise not impactful on offense and a liability on defense.

benzolamas

January 13th, 2022 at 1:59 PM ^

I would say Diabate has lived up to the hype thus far, while Houstan has not. Houstan looks like he is trying to be that plug and play guy, but isn't ready for college level defense yet. If he could hit his shots, the lack of defense would matter less, however outside of 1-2 games he his shot has been off. Plenty of time left to grow this season, but I don't see us as a NCAA tournament team currently.

HateSparty

January 13th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^

I appreciate the effort to post but, although I have said bundle, I would not have bought this summary.  It is devoid of anything remotely insightful.  The only area to debate on this board is Howard's abilities and if Diabate has been disappointing.  The rest?  Yup.

blueheron

January 13th, 2022 at 9:46 AM ^

It's of course fair to say that Jones hasn't adjusted well to an uptick in competition, but to say Smith was a "shot creator" is a reach. I think "excellent role player" would be better description. After several weeks he didn't screw up many things and pretty reliably hit open shots. (Sure would be nice to have that capability this year ...)

Create a shot, though? Beat someone handily one-on-one? I don't ever recall that happening. It was a clear weakness of the team last year. (Almost all college teams have some weakness.) Even the best option in that area (Livers) had to work really hard to make something happen.

I think some guys on the team will eventually be that kind of player. Probably not this year ...

St Joe Blues

January 13th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^

- No shot creation on the perimeter. Jones isn't Mike Smith.

Does this also include floor leadership? I realized the other day that this year would be the 4th year for David DeJulius. While he's not lighting it up from deep at Cinci (26.7% on 3s this season; he hit 36.1% of his 3s when he was a soph at Michigan), there's a lot to be said about veteran leadership from within your system. If he had stayed, he'd have succeeded Zavier Simpson and would be the guy this year, not Jones.

That one hurt.

Edit: For fun, I looked up Cole Bajema, who would be in his 3rd year at Michigan. He started out the year slow but in his last 3 games is averaging 13.3 points, hitting 12 of 17 3s. Interestingly, he only took 4 2-point shots in those games.

RAH

January 13th, 2022 at 11:46 AM ^

I was going to mention Bajema but I took a quick look and see that you beat me. He would be very useful this year. Also, Castleton is playing really well for Florida. (We've already got to good bigs but I suspect there would be some playing time for someone scoring and rebounding as he is. 

HireWayne

January 13th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^

So misjudged talent evaluation, poor roster construction, lack of shooting, and bad defense.  
 

I’d hate see this group if Juwan did forget how to coach.  

MGlobules

January 13th, 2022 at 10:44 AM ^

People inferring that this year's stumbles mean last year's NCAA Coach of the Year cannot coach couldn't carry Juwan's jockstrap across the street with a forklift. And the fact that two freshmen cannot carry a team that lost three NBA players just is what it is--sometimes freshmen come on strong, more often they need seasoning. We might as readily wonder why several heralded Beilein recruits, now upperclassmen, make so little contribution. It wasn't of course just Juwan who had high hopes for Houston and Diabate, but analysts across the country, and his own staff. None of them--none--would have wanted the two to have to carry the team. And yes, to bottle lightning twice in a row with point guard transfers hasn't seemed to happen--Jones was looking good to a lot of people, including some of the same anonymous noodles criticizing him--just a short while ago. None of the other FRESHMEN guards seem to be able to step in immediately, despite showing promising spurts. People are just spoiled. And forget that they--and I do mean many of the same people bellyaching now--howled for Beilein's head at times, including through three terrible beginning seasons. 

 

bronxblue

January 13th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^

The big issue to me is Johns isn't an offensive threat at the 3/4, and that's what Livers have last year.  Coupled with no solid wing threat and you have a team that can be gameplanned for easily.

I don't think they have pieces who can fix it this year, but we'll see.  

UMfan21

January 13th, 2022 at 11:09 AM ^

This is the first year I haven't really watched hoops since Beilein was hired.

 

The team will be fine, but they are young and going through growing pains.  They just aren't very fun to watch.  Definitely don't look like the #1 recruiting class.

Matt EM

January 13th, 2022 at 12:12 PM ^

I'm clueless as to how opposing coaches, or ESPN, look at games with an analytical eye and come to the conclusion that offense is the primary issue with Michigan.

For context, Michigan is 77th percentile in the country in terms of overall halfcourt offense. That's a considerable drop from last year's 96th percentile half-court offense, but still a good offense.

The defense OTOH, has fallen off a cliff. Michigan is in the 36th percentile in terms of half-court defense this season, after being 70th percentile last year. 

There's some noise associated with individual synergy numbers defensively, but Ei Brooks going from a 63rd percentile defender that gave up .801 ppp last year to now being 8th percentile nationally at 1.075 ppp is eye-popping stuff.

Opposing teams are hunting Eli in isolation + ballscreen action. And while it is true that Michigan is utilizing more blitz coverage vs ballscreens, we've still been primarily drop when Hunter is on the court. 

 

 

JamieH

January 13th, 2022 at 12:27 PM ^

The basic translation is:  They are losing because the team can't shoot, and they don't have the elite playmakers you would need to overcome a lack of shooting.

You can overanalyze things but in the end, if you can't shoot, you are going to be in trouble.  Michigan has been shot out of the gym by a few teams that got hot.