Football Outsiders F+ way too early rankings - Michigan 10th

ok cool hook 'em beat the hooskies

Should I know who football outsiders is? 

Yes, it is way too early. 

Dumb

Are we #1 yet?

I know many on the podcasts and such are saying we should expect a different Washington team, and I’m not saying they will commit 3 turnovers, but it kinda just sounds like their offense is awful. I truly think the guys are ridiculously fired up, playing for themselves (their team), and for Ronnie, basking under the lights….I will keep saying 28-7. Hutchinson lives in the backfield along with other blitzers, reminiscent of a 2018 revenge tour type game. I’m already drinking kool-aid, at least for this game.

Is that with or without Bell?

For months now the Washington game hasn’t worried me too much. Under Harbaugh (when fans are allowed) we’ve played only one real dud in a big home game (2017 MSU) and multiple great big home games. 

After last week of both teams I think this game is in the comfortable W category. I think around a 31-13 victory. Probably around 14-6 or 17-7 at half and we pull away with our ground game and their really poor passing offense doesn’t have the horses to stay in it.

I still don’t understand the why beyond Washington OL implosion: could have had 5 OL returning starters (from reportedly above avg line last year), same OL coach, same offensive scheme, home (no hostile environment), small and unheralded DL….football is weird and certainly they could look different but that would imply they figured out the issue, which seems tough to figure out. 

Poor Notre Dame at 20.

Penn St at #8. Was it the 17 minutes time of possession that put them in the top 10? The 50 yards rushing?

That’ll happen when Washington scores one TD against Montana

This is an absolutely perfect first big game for this UM team. Night game, hype, excitement but an opponent that is not just beatable but potentially an opponent you could lay it on. Even if UM wins Washington will provide adversity in a tense atmosphere. This team needs that test and that feeling but this is a good game to ease into that, followed by two games UM should win before going to Madison.

I expect Washingtons offensive line to look vastly different, at least to start the game but I also expect this UM to be much strongly mentally that we have seen from previous harbaugh teams. What I really want to see is what happens when there is true adversity on the football field. 

A 9-10 point spread is the extreme against Washington. I'd rather lower the bar on Michigan's offensive output against Washington. The onus will be on the the defense to keep Washington from putting too many points on the board. I'd like to see our offense overachieve and beat that point spread.

As for that ranking, I don't care at this time.

Not sure why people are so surprised about the spread. Washington probably isn't as bad as they looked, but they looked really damn bad! I don't think Montana is even supposed to be that good of an FCS team? It's at home. I think that gets Michigan something like 3 points alone with SP+.

I feel like FEI has historically been more accurate in evaluating Michigan. SP+ usually likes us significantly more than the eye/smell test. But happy to be proven wrong here. I want to believe.