Final Predictions: What The Committee *SHOULD* Do + What You Predict They *WILL* Do
Share your final predictions here:
First...
What do you think the CFP committee *SHOULD* do? How would YOU rank the top 4?
--------------------------------------------------
Next...
What do you think the CFP committee *WILL* do?Do you think they will agree with you or do you predict we will see something different?
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:45 AM ^
Should
1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. Texas, 4. FSU
Will
1. Michigan, 2. Washington, 3. Texas, 4. Alabama
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:49 AM ^
What this guy said. And so it is said. And so it shall be written.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:20 AM ^
What these guys said. ESPN/SEC corruption.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
So sick of “SEC is the greatest conference” lost cause bull. They weren’t this year. They had losing records to two of the three power conferences that they played: 4-6 against ACC, 1-2 against Big 12
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
Generally, I agree, but to be fair, Dan Mullen predicted FSU this morning over Bama. Go, Dan Mullen.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:56 AM ^
Almost wondering if they take both Georgia and Bama with the SEC love fest. This would be criminal but I can see it happening
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
I don’t know how that’d be possible. If you take Alabama, then you have to take Texas, as the CFP committee said they highly value head to head, regardless of when it happens in the season.
If you take Georgia, then now someone from Washington or Michigan gets fucked. While I’m sure plenty of people would be fine with seeing Michigan get left out due to sign gate, putting Georgia in over them or Washington would be absolutely criminal. Because now two undefeated conference champions are being left out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:05 AM ^
As much as I’d hate to see Bama and Georgia get in, I’ll at least give their coaches credit for politicking to get their teams in. I still criticize Lloyd Carr for not doing that more in 2006.
Urban Meyer said it last night on the postgame show, if Bama gets in and Texas doesn’t, very coach should go to their AD and tell them never to schedule a tough game out of conference, if it’s not going to help you.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:25 AM ^
That's "expert" opinion from Pope Urban!!! He and "Gene Gene the corruption machine" had Hostess put together the schedule while Meyer was there. The Ding Dongs would only schedule Cupcakes and Twinkies. Urban was more focused on the "Ho Ho's"!
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
if Bama gets in and Texas doesn’t, very coach should go to their AD and tell them never to schedule a tough game out of conference, if it’s not going to help you
The problem is the two teams Alabama is potentially arguing against -- Texas and FSU -- also scheduled tough out of conference games (and both away from home, unlike Bama).
The difference is those two teams won their games
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:35 AM ^
That’s what he’s saying. If Bama gets in despite losing, and the other two teams that scheduled tough games don’t get in after winning. Why would you even schedule tough games? There’s no upside in it.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:55 AM ^
Ah my bad. Getting turned around with all the arguments and not enough sleep :)
I thought I remembered Urban bringing up scheduling tough games out of conference as a way to *defend* Alabama. He had them in the playoff and FSU out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:30 AM ^
No chance of 2 SEC teams, a nonzero chance of no SEC teams- maybe 20 percent.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:18 AM ^
My thoughts, too.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^
Let's be honest with ourselves. Everyone saying FSU should be 4th really just wants Michigan to play FSU.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:32 AM ^
No. Alabama almost lost (again) to Auburn. Championships should be won in games played, not it reputation.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:34 AM ^
Just said the same thing to the Mrs.
Everyone forgets Alabama needed a 4th down, last minute miracle to beat an Auburn team that got blown out the week before, at home, as big favorites.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
to their scheduled "cupcake" game, New Mexico State
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:30 AM ^
Never forget
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^
FSU has a number of close calls against lesser competition as well: 2 pt win over BC, OT vs Clemson, looked bad versus FL and Louisville.
If we’re talking style points, I’m not sure FSU comes out that well.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
I agree with this. As someone says a few comments down, if the committee says being undefeated matters enough for FSU to finish ahead of Alabama, then it will be enough for FSU to finish ahead of Texas, too. Either FSU will be in front of both UT and Bama or they will be behind both.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
Only way I see FSU at 4 is if they go…
These are the four most deserving teams: Michigan, Washington, FSU, Texas
Now, let’s rank them in order of who we think is the best team: 1. Michigan 2. Washington 3. Texas 4. FSU
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
The committee put themselves in a really tough spot by keeping FSU at 4 going into championship week. If you're grading based on who the best teams are, and they were the fourth, and then they won a conference championship, it doesn't make any sense that they would suddenly drop out of the top 4.
Of course, I'm sure the committee will chicken out and let Bama and Texas leapfrog FSU because "third string quarterback." But if the committee were honest all the way through the process, then FSU should've lost position last week because their quarterback situation makes them a worse team.
I hate to keep quoting Urban Meyer in this thread, but he reminded the Fox panel last night that osu won the championship with Cardale Jones 10 years ago. You can't count a team out just because of a key injury.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
Nope. This is something you can bet on with the major online sites.
This is their predicted order. 1.M, 2.Wash, 3. Texas 4. FSU (or possibly 1.W, 2.M, 3.FSU, 4.T)
Here are some bets you can make if you don't think that's going to happen. FSU to miss the playoffs +250, Texas to miss the playoffs +250, the field vs Michigan to win the title -145.
I take these numbers as a lot more reliable than anything I hear from talking heads on TV/radio/Twitter.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
Personally, I believe any team that literally schedules a rivalry game with an SEC power (Florida), hosts another SEC power LSU on a neutral field, than wins out its conference....should go to BCS. Their 2nd string quarterback looks pretty good and will be back. Don't consider it a certain victory. They will be much harder than Iowa to defeat.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:16 AM ^
Obviously less than objective, but ACC journalist makes a good point here:
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:27 AM ^
I am in the camp that FSU should get it. But this argument is crap. FSU did not beat a team like OSU or PSU.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:18 AM ^
I'd rather take my chances with Milroe than FSU's defensive line.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I dunno. The Tide needed a miracle just two weeks ago to knock off a mediocre Auburn team, and FSU’s defense looks legit. I’m not sure I wouldn’t rather play Alabama, especially if FSU gets a month to sort out their QB situation.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:48 AM ^
No. They're undefeated. If we were them and didn't get in we'd be maniacal right now. When we realize that hypocrisy is when it becomes evident that the bama discussion is a farce.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
Right. There are three undefeated P5 conference champions. Those should be basically automatic bids. There are two 1-loss P5 conference champions. You can only pick one. And they played head to head.
This is only a difficult decision because everyone worships the SEC.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:05 AM ^
Let's be honest with ourselves. Everyone saying Bama should be 4th really just buy into the idea that the SEC has a God-given right to be in the CFP.
It's the Power 5, not the SEC and the Power 4. The committee has explicit criteria to consider conference championships and head-to-head. Bama loses on both of those.
Besides, FSU would be 3, so Michigan would get Texas first.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
Bama should have lost to Auburn if not for Auburn’s cluster fuck two man rush at the end of that game.
And watching Saban on his soap box is 97 Nebraska nauseating.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:07 AM ^
FWIW, this is what the sportsbooks are predicting.
Championship
Michigan +115-125ish
Texas +350-400
Washington +500ish
Alabama +550ish
FSU +1800
Georgia +4000
So if you believe in an SEC Bias miracle, you've got a couple hours to jump on some incredible value on UGA!
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:21 AM ^
In my mind the only real debate is whether FSU or Alabama will be in. Although you could make the argument that Alabama is a better team, I don’t know if that is unarguably true. But I do know with certainty that Florida State is the undefeated champion of a power five conference.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:39 AM ^
Exactly this. ESPN has pull here, no way in he'll they leave the SEC out. It's best 4, not most deserving. Bama is clearly one of best 4.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Exactly this. ESPN has pull here, no way in he'll they leave the SEC out. It's best 4, not most deserving. Bama is clearly one of best 4.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:45 AM ^
Odds from DraftKings to make the CFP:
- FSU -400
- Texas -330
- Bama +115
- Georgia +1200
It's an interesting selection this year but not all that difficult. FSU or Texas for Michigan depending on how they seed those 2.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:22 AM ^
Interesting. Damn.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:04 AM ^
MGM has FSU as plus 1400 to make it.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:10 AM ^
That has to be odds to win the national championship, not to make the field.
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:54 AM ^
yes Matt, you are correct. Bama is plus 375, FSU plus 1400
December 3rd, 2023 at 10:58 AM ^
So that plus 1400 WOULD take into account the chances of them winning if they get there. So maybe those odds aren't inconsistent with the other odds.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:09 AM ^
Man is it tempting to go all in on that Bama line. I just cannot imagine the SEC not getting a team in, regardless of any logic to keep them out.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
Never wise to make a bet on the decision of a few old men in a backroom when nobody in Vegas or the press really have any good intel on their thoughts.
December 3rd, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
Based on THIS year, how does UGA get more consideration than OSU?
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:47 AM ^
Michigan should be and is #1.
December 3rd, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
...unless Alabama is #4 and then Washington deserves the #1 slot for their impressive victories over OSU and Oregon.
December 3rd, 2023 at 7:48 AM ^
I think Ohio State is the 2nd best team.
But obviously I don't want to see them again. Beyond that I truly think Michigan can beat anyone right now.
December 3rd, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
Damn. I didn't think about that. After watching Power 5 conference championship games, I have to agree with you. A healthy Georgia may be a 2 b or even a 1 b.
Bama won but it looked like they were one play away from losing the game. My novice football fandom top 4 based on "eye test" is UM, OSU, Georgia and Bama. These teams have excellent lines. FSU has excellent D but QB situation is dire. Washington OL can be pressured and I am not sure if Penix is good under pressure. Oregon was a bit overrated. Texas offense is really good but I am not sold on their defense against the top 4 I picked from eye test (eye rolling myself).