ESPN postulates that B1G elite would suck in all other conferences.
This is paywalled, but here's the methodology. http://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/17418205/michig…
We took the top teams in each of the Power 5 conferences according to our preseason opponent-adjusted Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) possession efficiency ratings and dropped them into each of the other Power 5 conferences.
Mean wins projections were based on the projected FEI ratings of the team and its opponents and an adjustment for home-field advantage. For each conference swap, we calculated the average projected wins of the given team against the schedules of the top five teams from the conference.
This is the outcome they gave Michigan. Read the article for MSU, OSU, Nebraska and Iowa.
SEC: 7.5 wins
Big 12: 8.4 wins
Pac-12: 7.9 wins
ACC: 8.6 wins
As a reference, here's what they predicted for NC in their ACC version.
Big 12: 7.5 wins (UNC would win 7.5 games in the Big 12)
Big Ten: 8.0 wins
Pac-12: 6.9 wins
SEC: 6.5 wins
August 31st, 2016 at 6:07 PM ^
Based on how many games? 9? Plausible I guess.
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August 31st, 2016 at 6:09 PM ^
In the article they reference out of conference schedule toughness so that's not just a 9 game conference schedule. Of course the SEC automatically has an advantage of being ranked against other SEC schools which are ranked because they face SEC school.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:56 PM ^
How many games would Michigan have won in the Big10? :)
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September 1st, 2016 at 7:28 AM ^
They project 9.2 for Michigan in the Big 10 and 7.7 for UNC in the ACC.
August 31st, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^
I know people like to bitch about the SEC but....the fact of the matter is that its just a deeper conference. There are just more cupcakes in the middle and bottom of the Big Ten than there are in the SEC. I'd be a whole hell of a lot more wary to face an Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M, or Miss St. than I would Illinois, Indiana, Purdue or Penn State.
Plus their tier B teams of Florida, Georiga, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are a whole hell of a lot better than the Big Ten's (MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska...Northwestern?)
So the fact that they give Michigan 9.2 wins in the Big Ten, and 7.5 in the SEC...yeah. I could see that. Especially when you consider how easy Michigan's schedule is this year and that in this proposed swap they'd be swapping out super cupcakes for a handful of top 40 teams.
August 31st, 2016 at 8:35 PM ^
In the last five years there have been quite a few bowl games between the "middle tier" teams. The results are not that dominate.
Wiskey beat Auuburn & lost to USC
MSU beat GA & lost to Alabama (no shame there)
Nebraska lost to SC &split with GA
Northwestern did worse but even they beat Oll Miss
On the other hand GA is only 2 & 2 v. B1G Mid teams
FL is 3-1 v. B1O
I also noticed that when listing the bottom tier for the SEC you seem to have neglected Vandy & KY but included Purdue & Indiana.
August 31st, 2016 at 11:52 PM ^
About 80% of the time when I rep Michigan while snowboarding in CO, someone feels compelled to mention it. Half of that is support! But the other half is mainly Sparty trolls other than a few tOSU scum.
It became so frequent that when they obnoxiously yell GO GREEN, I just calmly reply roll tide. And I hate 'bama. But fucking trolls gonna sparty on my fun day off so they're asking for it.
/rant
September 1st, 2016 at 12:06 PM ^
I usually just ollie and tailslap them across their goggles and scream HARBAUGH!!!! before landing switch and heading into a backside 540 rodeo and jibbing off their ugly little kid's head.
September 1st, 2016 at 9:08 AM ^
I also left out Maryland and Rutgers and Minnesota. Sorry I didn't do a full on listing of each team in the Big Ten and give their SEC counterpart. Made the mistake of thinking people would get the gist of what I was saying without giving the full paint by numbers layout.
September 1st, 2016 at 9:49 AM ^
Iowa, Nebraska, PSU and Wisconsin are not cupcake programs. Nebraska is down, PSU hurt themselves (and children) and Alverez either won't pay his coaches or maintains academic standards (your call.)
Ole Miss, Miss St. have only been decent recently and Ole Miss is under investigation for bag men. SEC has some regional advantages for recruiting, just as the B1G did when all of the jobs were up north, but they also have low standards for ethics and academics.
The B1G would have a huge win percentage advantage if you get rid of SEC vacated victories.
September 1st, 2016 at 7:30 AM ^
Non-conference is totally irrelevant for this exercise, is it not? We have Wisconsin and Iowa as crossovers, five road games, including against our three top ranked opponents. That's about as difficult as our conference schedule is ever going to be.
August 31st, 2016 at 7:44 PM ^
WE do the Fucking. They do the sucking.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:08 PM ^
SEC! SEC! SEC!
It's amazing what having a huge monetary stake in a conference can do to your numbers.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:12 PM ^
The SEC echo chamber is still going strong....ong....ong...ong....
September 1st, 2016 at 9:47 AM ^
The SEC, top to bottom, simply is the best conference. On any measure of talent that is just a fact. That dooesn't mean that any of our top teams couldn't potentially beat one of theirs, but it is not ESPN that makes it so.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:11 PM ^
Yes but did they adjust for the fact that its freezing in Michigan so all our opponents would automatically give up because they'd be too cold to play?
August 31st, 2016 at 7:10 PM ^
Good point. SEC fans think this is what it looks like in the stands at the big house....in September.
I was going to go to the Hawaii game on Saturday but I can't find my cross country skis. No way in hell am I making the trip from my sleigh to the stadium in just my winter boots.
August 31st, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^
You really cracked me up with this.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^
if SEC teams joined the big10 and had to play by our rules, then they wouldn't be as good as they are
August 31st, 2016 at 7:19 PM ^
And Mizzou and A&M ...both middling B12 programs dominated immediately in SEC
August 31st, 2016 at 7:39 PM ^
This doesn't get enough attention. When two shitty teams can walk in and do that, you're not as good as you think. Also, when you have 8 or 9 teams ranked in the preseason it helps
August 31st, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^
What CFB have you been watching? Texas A&M and Missouri have each been 17-15 in SEC play since they've joined. Sumlin had a good (6-2) year with Manziel in 2012 but has been bad since then (and terrible in general vs. Top 25 teams). Mizzou meanwhile went 2-6 in their first season in the SEC, then had two good seasons and followed that up with a 1-7 season last year.
But yeah...they "dominated."
August 31st, 2016 at 9:59 PM ^
I'm not talking about the stupid ESPN article, I'm talking about the pathetic storyline in general.
Both programs came into the SEC ...as middling B12 programs -- eg, not OU or Texas -- and won immediately. Desmond himself made that point on the GameDay set last fall when Finebaum trotted out the tired BS about the SEC being so tough and how the 'best' B10 teams or Pac12 teams would be 'average' there.
That's the football I watched, the things I said and the thing Desmond said too.
And Kentucky ...Vanderbilt...? Fuck you too!! Hoo-Ahhhh!
September 1st, 2016 at 1:51 AM ^
Michigan or Ohio State would have had a better showing vs Bama, though the results might have been the same.
September 1st, 2016 at 9:12 AM ^
Mizzou went 2-6 in their first year in the SEC. Guess you and I have different definitions of dominating "immediately." And a pair of 17-15 records over 4 seasons seems like two middling Big 12 teams continued to be middling in their new conference.
But hey...if Desmond said it, its got to be true.
And a merry fuck you to you as well.
September 1st, 2016 at 9:20 AM ^
Not to delve into politics, but Mizzou did have some distractions last year.
August 31st, 2016 at 7:30 PM ^
I would just love to see a ranked SEC team play a meaningful game in the snow. I'm not so sure that SEC speed would translate very well.
August 31st, 2016 at 9:05 PM ^
that, or an SEC team comprised of legal recruits.
both are pipedreams.
September 1st, 2016 at 1:53 AM ^
They would have to forfited all their games above the Mason-Dixon line.
August 31st, 2016 at 9:54 PM ^
Remember when PSU joined the BIG 10 and all the pundits swore they would dominate the league? How's that prediction working out?
August 31st, 2016 at 10:43 PM ^
Nebraska has not dominated either, not even the B1G West.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:13 PM ^
Isn't this why they invented the playoff and bowl games?
Play the games, find out if this theoretical stuff is nonsense or not.
August 31st, 2016 at 7:04 PM ^
That's not really the point they are making.
If it was an NCAA-style 64 team playoff, then sure. You'd be able to see which conference was really the best. But since the playoff only pits the 4 best, you can't even settle the argument of which conference champs are the best.
The point of the article is basically just looking at which conference is deepest and the SEC just has fewer dog shit teams in it than the Big Ten. Michigan would still be a great team in the SEC, but they'd just have to face harder teams than they do now, so they'd be more likely to pick up an extra loss (or a loss and a half according to the article).
August 31st, 2016 at 9:07 PM ^
yes. the bowl games as bragging rights are pretty dumb. different teams put different amounts of effort into bowl prep. look at Florida last year. Or, Rich Rods final bowl game where our guys gave up on him.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:16 PM ^
That's like going on the red cider weirdos website for a Michigan analysis.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^
I feel disrespekted.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^
This was the first time I was on ESPN.com in the better part of a decade.
Clearly this is absurd.
If we play all 14 teams of the SEC I would say we win against the entire east division (I did watch a Florida team quit against michigan 9 months ago).
As for the West:
Bama makes M an underdog
If LSU still cannot throw and all they can do is run, M wins and wins without sweating
Ole Miss makes M a favorite
M wins against all other SEC West teams
So I have at worst 11-3.
11/14 = .7857
On a normal 12 game schedule...
M wins 9.42 games (12 x .7857).
espn the worldwide leader (self-proclaimed)
August 31st, 2016 at 6:42 PM ^
But really it's only 9 SEC games max with 3 cream puffs in OOC. So that puts us over 10.
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August 31st, 2016 at 6:56 PM ^
I thought the SEC only played 8 conference games and 4 OOC games.
August 31st, 2016 at 7:13 PM ^
You're right. Though it's probably a wash if you're replacing UF USC as they play FSU, Clemson in OOC.
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August 31st, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^
Do they play creampuffs, yup. They also play some pretty good teams:
LSU/Wisconsin
Alabama/USC
Georgia/UNC
Florida/FSU
Mississippi/FSU
A&M/UCLA
South Carolina/Clemson
Auburn/Clemson
Kentucky/Louisville
Arkansas/TCU
Tennessee/VaTech
Missouri/WVU
Vandy/Georgia Tech
Miss St/BYU
Take a look at some of the Big Ten's non-conference schedule. There's some teams that have nothing but creampuffs.
September 1st, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^
You wouldn't be referring to a certain team whose non-conference schedule consists of Hawaii, UCF, and Colorado would you?
Our non-conference schedule could hurt us this year, especially since it's plausible that our 3 biggest opponents this season (MSU, Iowa, and OSU) could take a (small) step back this season. It would not be good for our SOS if those teams have multiple losses before we face them.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^
I don't understand why they projecting this out by conference yet including OOC games. What does it say about the B1G vs SEC if 50% of Michigan's "losses" are due to the top SEC teams scheduling ACC/PAC schools OOC.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^
...with Michigan on the schedule? Or did they not factor what the SEC would like with Michigan and not Vanderbilt or Kentucky?
August 31st, 2016 at 6:21 PM ^
F the Sssss Eeeee Ceeee and F espn
August 31st, 2016 at 6:27 PM ^
Clickbait.
I mean, INSIDERClickbait.
Useless article. Glad we have a CFP.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^
There's a reason no one else recognizes FEI as a legitimate metric.
August 31st, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^
Also, if this is "statiscally-driven" why only take the top 5 teams instead of every team in the conference or just give a SOS-adjusted win total for each team versus their actual schedule win total?
Also, isn't FEI stats already SOS adjusted from last year and since you play roughly the same teams again this year in conference you are overadjusted for SOS?
August 31st, 2016 at 6:33 PM ^
I guess now that I gave this 2 minutes more thought you would not be but you are increasing the likelihood that your SOS adjustment throws off your projection.