ESPN postulates that B1G elite would suck in all other conferences.

Submitted by poseidon7902 on

This is paywalled, but here's the methodology.  http://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/17418205/michig…
 

We took the top teams in each of the Power 5 conferences according to our preseason opponent-adjusted Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) possession efficiency ratings and dropped them into each of the other Power 5 conferences.

Mean wins projections were based on the projected FEI ratings of the team and its opponents and an adjustment for home-field advantage. For each conference swap, we calculated the average projected wins of the given team against the schedules of the top five teams from the conference.

This is the outcome they gave Michigan.  Read the article for MSU, OSU, Nebraska and Iowa.  
 

SEC: 7.5 wins

Big 12: 8.4 wins

Pac-12: 7.9 wins

ACC: 8.6 wins

As a reference, here's what they predicted for NC in their ACC version.  

Big 12: 7.5 wins (UNC would win 7.5 games in the Big 12)

Big Ten: 8.0 wins

Pac-12: 6.9 wins

 

SEC: 6.5 wins

I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2016 at 7:07 PM ^

I know people like to bitch about the SEC but....the fact of the matter is that its just a deeper conference.  There are just more cupcakes in the middle and bottom of the Big Ten than there are in the SEC.  I'd be a whole hell of a lot more wary to face an Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M, or Miss St. than I would Illinois, Indiana, Purdue or Penn State.  

Plus their tier B teams of Florida, Georiga, Tennessee, and Ole Miss are a whole hell of a lot better than the Big Ten's (MSU, Wisconsin, Nebraska...Northwestern?)

So the fact that they give Michigan 9.2 wins in the Big Ten, and 7.5 in the SEC...yeah.  I could see that.  Especially when you consider how easy Michigan's schedule is this year and that in this proposed swap they'd be swapping out super cupcakes for a handful of top 40 teams.

Crisler 71

August 31st, 2016 at 8:35 PM ^

In the last five years there have been quite a few bowl games between the "middle tier" teams. The results are not that dominate.

Wiskey beat Auuburn & lost to USC

MSU beat GA & lost to Alabama (no shame there)

Nebraska lost to SC &split with GA

Northwestern did worse but even they beat Oll Miss

On the other hand GA is only 2 & 2 v. B1G Mid teams

FL is 3-1 v. B1O

I also noticed that when listing the bottom tier for the SEC you seem to have neglected Vandy & KY but included Purdue & Indiana.

Bo Glue

August 31st, 2016 at 11:52 PM ^

About 80% of the time when I rep Michigan while snowboarding in CO, someone feels compelled to mention it. Half of that is support! But the other half is mainly Sparty trolls other than a few tOSU scum.

It became so frequent that when they obnoxiously yell GO GREEN, I just calmly reply roll tide. And I hate 'bama. But fucking trolls gonna sparty on my fun day off so they're asking for it.

/rant

I Like Burgers

September 1st, 2016 at 9:08 AM ^

I also left out Maryland and Rutgers and Minnesota.  Sorry I didn't do a full on listing of each team in the Big Ten and give their SEC counterpart.  Made the mistake of thinking people would get the gist of what I was saying without giving the full paint by numbers layout.

WestQuad

September 1st, 2016 at 9:49 AM ^

Iowa, Nebraska, PSU and Wisconsin are not cupcake programs.  Nebraska is down,  PSU hurt themselves (and children) and Alverez  either won't pay his coaches or maintains academic standards (your call.) 

Ole Miss, Miss St. have only been decent recently and Ole Miss is under investigation for bag men.  SEC has some regional advantages for recruiting, just as the B1G did when all of the jobs were up north, but they also have low standards for ethics and academics.

The B1G would have a huge win percentage advantage if you get rid of SEC vacated victories.

Formerly Yoda

August 31st, 2016 at 6:38 PM ^

if SEC teams joined the big10 and had to play by our rules, then they wouldn't be as good as they are

I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2016 at 8:23 PM ^

What CFB have you been watching?  Texas A&M and Missouri have each been 17-15 in SEC play since they've joined.  Sumlin had a good (6-2) year with Manziel in 2012 but has been bad since then (and terrible in general vs. Top 25 teams).  Mizzou meanwhile went 2-6 in their first season in the SEC, then had two good seasons and followed that up with a 1-7 season last year.

But yeah...they "dominated."

ElBictors

August 31st, 2016 at 9:59 PM ^

I'm not talking about the stupid ESPN article, I'm talking about the pathetic storyline in general.

Both programs came into the SEC ...as middling B12 programs -- eg, not OU or Texas -- and won immediately. Desmond himself made that point on the GameDay set last fall when Finebaum trotted out the tired BS about the SEC being so tough and how the 'best' B10 teams or Pac12 teams would be 'average' there.

That's the football I watched, the things I said and the thing Desmond said too.

And Kentucky ...Vanderbilt...? Fuck you too!! Hoo-Ahhhh!

I Like Burgers

September 1st, 2016 at 9:12 AM ^

Mizzou went 2-6 in their first year in the SEC.  Guess you and I have different definitions of dominating "immediately."  And a pair of 17-15 records over 4 seasons seems like two middling Big 12 teams continued to be middling in their new conference.

But hey...if Desmond said it, its got to be true.

And a merry fuck you to you as well.

I Like Burgers

August 31st, 2016 at 7:04 PM ^

That's not really the point they are making.

If it was an NCAA-style 64 team playoff, then sure.  You'd be able to see which conference was really the best.  But since the playoff only pits the 4 best, you can't even settle the argument of which conference champs are the best.

The point of the article is basically just looking at which conference is deepest and the SEC just has fewer dog shit teams in it than the Big Ten.  Michigan would still be a great team in the SEC, but they'd just have to face harder teams than they do now, so they'd be more likely to pick up an extra loss (or a loss and a half according to the article).

DenverRob

August 31st, 2016 at 6:17 PM ^

This was the first time I was on ESPN.com in the better part of a decade.

Clearly this is absurd. 

If we play all 14 teams of the SEC I would say we win against the entire east division (I did watch a Florida team quit against michigan 9 months ago).

As for the West:

Bama makes M an underdog

If LSU still cannot throw and all they can do is run, M wins and wins without sweating

Ole Miss makes M a favorite

M wins against all other SEC West teams

So I have at worst 11-3.

11/14 = .7857

On a normal 12 game schedule...

M wins 9.42 games (12 x .7857).

espn the worldwide leader (self-proclaimed)

 

funkywolve

August 31st, 2016 at 11:51 PM ^

Do they play creampuffs, yup.  They also play some pretty good teams:

LSU/Wisconsin

Alabama/USC

Georgia/UNC

Florida/FSU

Mississippi/FSU

A&M/UCLA

South Carolina/Clemson

Auburn/Clemson

Kentucky/Louisville

Arkansas/TCU

Tennessee/VaTech

Missouri/WVU

Vandy/Georgia Tech

Miss St/BYU

Take a look at some of the Big Ten's non-conference schedule.  There's some teams that have nothing but creampuffs.

 

 

 

 

mgowild

September 1st, 2016 at 9:55 AM ^

You wouldn't be referring to a certain team whose non-conference schedule consists of Hawaii, UCF, and Colorado would you? 



Our non-conference schedule could hurt us this year, especially since it's plausible that our 3 biggest opponents this season (MSU, Iowa, and OSU) could take a (small) step back this season. It would not be good for our SOS if those teams have multiple losses before we face them.

HarbaughsLeftElbow

August 31st, 2016 at 6:19 PM ^

I don't understand why they projecting this out by conference yet including OOC games. What does it say about the B1G vs SEC if 50% of Michigan's "losses" are due to the top SEC teams scheduling ACC/PAC schools OOC.  

HarbaughsLeftElbow

August 31st, 2016 at 6:25 PM ^

Also, if this is "statiscally-driven" why only take the top 5 teams instead of every team in the conference or just give a SOS-adjusted win total for each team versus their actual schedule win total?

Also, isn't FEI stats already SOS adjusted from last year and since you play roughly the same teams again this year in conference you are overadjusted for SOS?