ESPN+ content: Bill Connelly's 25 most important players in the CFP race
Bill Connelly wrote an article with his top 25 most important players in the College Football Playoff race. He included three of our own: JJ, Cornelius Johnson, and Josaiah Stewart. Snippets below:
"14. WR Cornelius Johnson, Michigan
Jim Harbaugh molded Michigan into a two-time CFP team by basically eliminating weaknesses, one at a time. The Wolverines might not have quite the big-play upside of other major contenders, but their floor is immensely high.
The new weakest link to address might be receiver play. It wasn't bad by any means, but among last year's CFP quarterbacks, J.J. McCarthy got far less help than the others when it came to receivers making contested catches.
Passing stats for contested passes, per Sports Info Solutions: Stetson Bennett, Georgia: 42% completion rate, 7.4 yards per dropback; C.J. Stroud, Ohio State: 41%, 6.2 Max Duggan, TCU: 36%, 6.0 McCarthy: 28%, 3.7."
"11. DE Josaiah Stewart, Michigan
For the second straight season, Michigan will be forced to replace its top two pass-rushers; after losing Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo after 2021, they lost Mike Morris (NFL) and Eyabi Okie (transfer) this offseason. No one on the roster made more than 3.5 sacks last season, and no returning end managed a pressure rate higher than 9%. (For reference, Morris' pressure rate was 15%, Hutchinson's 16%.)
Stewart, however, was a star at Coastal Carolina. Over the 2021-22 seasons, he recorded 16 sacks with a 12% pressure rate. His sack total sank from 12.5 to 3.5 last season, but his pressure rate remained the same, suggesting poor fortune as much as anything. If Stewart and a fellow end like Jaylen Harrell or Derrick Moore form a strong enough tandem, Michigan might not have any weaknesses."
"6. QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan (No. 4 in 2022)
Jim Harbaugh took a major risk in 2022, benching a known commodity and solid QB in Cade McNamara (who led Michigan to the Big Ten title and CFP in 2021) for a higher-upside but less experienced option in McCarthy. But the former top-25 recruit made the gamble pay off, winning his first 12 starts and finishing 16th in Total QBR.
Sixteenth is good, but is it national-title good? Over the past four seasons, the title-winning quarterback has averaged a 91.4 Total QBR, completing 72% of his passes at 14.2 yards per completion. McCarthy in 2022: 79.1 Total QBR, 65% completion rate, 13.1 yards per completion. He came up big in the last three games of the season (57% completion rate, but at 17.8 yards per completion). Was that a sign of things to come?"
August 11th, 2023 at 11:06 AM ^
Forgot to link the original article: link
August 11th, 2023 at 11:10 AM ^
That contested catch thing is something that has always bugged me. I see MSU WRs making crazy catches against us for years.. our guys seem.. not to... and when we had guys who i think could, we underutilized them - see Nico Collins.
I also think its low risk/low reward. Harbs doesnt want 50/50 balls. there's no point. thats not our offense. we dont have the volume to make up for the mistakes (see 2 pick sixes against tcu). put the ball where only your guy has a chance... yields less than high likelihood of success but also low likelihood of complete disaster.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:30 AM ^
I would much rather cheer for a team which eliminates mistakes and wins consistently, than cheer for a team which relies on spectacular plays simply to compete.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:51 AM ^
yeah, nobody is complaining. just trying to explain perhaps why our WRs don't have the reps with tough catches to get good at going up and getting it. we dont need to do it to win most of the time.
If you remember, last year, the call was to open things up early when it wasnt necessary so that if it was (e.g. against tcu), the players would know how to handle.
Lots of arguing at the time on the board. Ultimately, hard to argue with the overall result, as you say.
All that said - its a nice luxury to have to know that your guys CAN go get it if they need to... and there's a fair question out there on if the WRs we have have that ability.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^
I also think that sometimes UM's receivers simply didn't convert on those contested catches when given the opportunity; I remember Anthony completely biffing a contested-ish catch against Illinois, for example. I do think Harbaugh trusts his TEs to come down with contested balls, or at least his QBs have been less worried about trying those throws, so some of it does feel like a WR issue.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
I suspect you are correct about Harbaugh's mentality; this issue certainly came up last year and this is the best we can surmise.
"50-50 balls" is a term often misinterpreted to mean that the other team gets the ball 50% of the time, or it's a coin flip if your guys gets it.
And that's not the case at all. It simply means that it's a ball thrown in such a way, with the receiver in such a position, that both the receiver and defender theoretically have a shot at it.
But that doesn't mean it's 50-50. Think of the MSU in game in 2004. Down by 17, Michigan started just chucking it to Braylon. Result: comeback win.
The issue, I think, is that Harbaugh doesn't like this sort of thing, as you say. He wants guys that are significantly open. Unfortunately, there are other challenges that are downstream of this; if you don't plan to throw tightly contested passes, you might not practice the skills needed to make and catch them as much, either. (It's not just a jump ball on the sideline we're talking about; Michigan just hasn't thrown a lot of passes where the receiver has coverage close by, where either the QB has to fit a tight window or the receiver has to make a play to make it happen). As a result, your players aren't repped in those situations where a 50-50 catch is needed, and they are less effective.
Is it a "problem?" I'm not a fan of it. But Michigan has been doing ok the last couple of years, so I'm willing to let the staff figure it out.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:09 PM ^
one of the deep mysteries of the universe that might never be understood.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
I'd like to see more arm punts when necessary.
MSU has annoyingly arm punted its way to some annoying victories over UM in prior years.
PSU rode McSorley arm punts to a B1G championship in their flukey 2016 season.
If we don't have the receiver for it, we definitely have the tight ends for it.
If beating UGA or Bama requires a few lucky arm punts, let's get it done.
August 11th, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
But contested catches don't simply represent 50/50 balls. They represent well-covered catches, which have to be made.
August 11th, 2023 at 1:33 PM ^
that's the counter. that youre not going to play Rutgers every week. and if you want to win a title 1) your QB has to be willing and able to make those throws in the right spot, 2) he has to have synergy with the WRs and TEs - and that comes with game repetition, and 3) the WRs have to have that ability - hwich I think is a fair knock on our WRs, whether its via coaching or ability.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:26 AM ^
Jim plays high percentage ball which is usually fine. This year we’re gonna have to be old school smash smooth with some (let her rip) mixed in. We may be able to play bully ball but come OSU and playoffs not so much. Well, maybe against OSU, shall see. Hopefully the pass to run ratios is what Harbaugh says it’ll be.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:27 AM ^
Good stuff. Thanks for posting, and for the snippets.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:29 AM ^
I don't expect Connally to know every little detail about the players, but last year Stewart had to trim down and basically play a different type of position on the DL than he did from his 12.5 sack year didn't he?
August 11th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
Yes. As Seth and others have mentioned, last year Stewart was asked to be the designated looper on stunts and twists much more often, putting him in position for pressures but not sacks. In his freshman year, he was the hammer. In his sophomore year, he was the anvil.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:52 AM ^
what will he be this year for us?
August 11th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
The edge speed merchant. D-line is stacked with anchors and bullies, starting with Jenkins and Graham. Should be a lot of fun for Josiah to pin his ears back and bring death from the edge.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^
RE: McCarthy the Cover Three Podcast brought up a good point that he was awesome with play-action, but terrible with downfield passing, which based off of last years feels about right. That ability to take the top off of a team when needed does feel like it's missing and hopefully the O figures out how to close that gap.
August 11th, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^
That may be, but last year he was coming back from a shoulder injury, and the talk was that he was having trouble with his touch on deep passes. I'm hopeful that's the explanation for the way things played out. Things should look different this season.
August 11th, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
National guys who just look at stats might say that JJ was poor at deep balls last year. But those of us that watched and analyzed every play remember that the deep ball inaccuracy that was an issue for about 3/4 of last season was corrected in the last 3 games. It never seemed like an inherent weakness in JJ’s game given that it wasn’t an issue in his freshman year.
August 11th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
Plus there were a number of near misses on deep balls in the first half of the year. One step here or there. It wasn’t like he was a slinging it wildly around.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^
For now, I'm taking it as a positive that his picks at 14 and 11 could each, readily be swapped with two other players on the roster. A star making year, whether from Johnson, Wilson or Morris on the one hand and Stewart, Moore, McGregor on the other could make all the difference.
August 11th, 2023 at 4:25 PM ^
For the record, he has the players in groupings.
Johnson is part of the "Potential stars in need of a breakthrough" group.
Stewart is in the "Most important transfers" group.
And JJ is in the "Quarterbacks with a potential game-changing leap in them."
Kyle McCord at #4 is in the "New starting quarterbacks for potential contenders" group and Allar at #2 is in the "New starting QBs for potential contenders with a potential game-changing leap and shots at lots of contenders" group. Just rolls off the tongue. #1 and in that same group is one Joe Milton.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:10 PM ^
Jim Harbaugh took a major risk in 2022, benching a known commodity and solid QB in Cade McNamara
Uhhh. No, Bill, it wasn't a major risk. May not have been a minor risk. He knew Cade's strengths, but also his limitations. And given the performance of each in first couple of games, had even further confirmation. It was kind of a no brainer.
August 11th, 2023 at 12:51 PM ^
It was still a big risk; Cade had 2 bad games before getting hurt but it's not like McCarthy didn't struggle later on in the year at times. McCarthy is a better QB but the gap between him and Cade isn't so vast that McNamara being benched couldn't have ended badly. Luckily it all worked out but McCarthy also showed some weaknesses last year that need to be improved on for this team to take that next step.
August 11th, 2023 at 4:59 PM ^
We'll have to disagree on the risk, and that's okay. I do agree 100% on room for JJ to grow. Some jenky moments last year. But I don't think Michigan was lucky it worked out any more than any team is fortunate that an uber talented, mature, smart, humble-but-confident, hardworking 5-star QB works out. I don't think Harbaugh thought it was much of a risk, even if he figured there would likely be bumps in the road.
Big picture, I think the team was a little unfortunate that Cade got hurt because no doubt it made the play calling more conservative and negated one of the obvious gaps between JJ and Cade -- the QB run game.
Not trying to disparage Cade. He's proven he's a good P5 QB. But he has limited upside, and I do think the difference between the two is and was pretty sizeable. No way I could prove this, but I think Harbaugh knew right after the Jan 2022 semi-final, that if he got back to playoffs, to beat a team like UGA or Alabama, he was going to have to ride with JJ. He calls him a generational QB openly now. I think he saw it long ago.
I was watching JJ's '22 highlights earlier this summer. Can't remember the video, but there were probably 6 or 7 plays per game (maybe 80-90 plays total), and it felt like every fourth or fifth one or so I was thinking to myself "Dang, there are maybe five or six QBs in all of CFB capable of making that play."
August 11th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
I'm hoping Roman takes that next step, I think he will be the leading receiver this year.
August 11th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
I think we all keep overlooking Braiden McGregor. Very similar recruit to Aidan coming out o high school, just needed time to recover from a major injury. I think Seth or Brian comped him to Aidan in his recruiting profile? This is his first full off-season of strength training and practice. He should explode onto the scene in 2023.
August 11th, 2023 at 3:25 PM ^
I understand the big play narrative because our offense is designed to grind you to death, but to anyone actually paying attention, that philosophy has directly led to Michigan being an explosive offense in their biggest games (and literally one of the most explosive teams in cfb the last two years) since the opponent has to go blitzball to not die slowly. OSU, PSU, TCU, Purdue all got annihilated for long plays directly due to trying to stop the run
August 12th, 2023 at 7:30 AM ^
Grind, grind, grind until safety cheats in and go over the top. Really simple concept that has worked for 75 years