The {edit] 15 teams still in the hunt for CFP
Let's dive into the pointless playoff discussion! BECAUSE ITS WHAT YOU DO, when you're a CFB junkie.
As I see it, there are 15 teams [edit: yeah I forgot Louisville] that still have at least a remote pulse for making the CFP. When you go through the possibilities, the implications are pretty clear -- our Iowa loss, and now the PSU/MSU game, rank as the most importants games to JUST ABOUT EVERYONE because they create a domino effect on everyone trying to leapfrog Ohio State.
TIER ONE: CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY. (Win And In; no scenario exists to knock them out of top 4 if they win all their remaining games.)
SEC: Alabama (Bama could lose the Iron Bowl or SEC champ. game and still get in; hell, they could lose BOTH games and still maybe get in.)
ACC: Clemson
B1G: Michigan
TIER TWO: PROBABLY CONTROL THEIR OWN DESTINY (Win And Probably In; there might be one or two scenarios that could knock them down to #5 -- basically, if these 3 teams all win out, the Committee may have to pick only 2 of the 3, and you can justify any of the possibilities)
B1G: Ohio State (if PSU wins B1G, going to be hard to put in OSU over 12-1 Clemson and 12-1 Washington); Wisconsin (but at 11-2 & B1G champ, might still get left behind 12-1 Clemson, 12-1 Washington, and maybe 11-1 OSU -- which beat Wisconsin)
Pac12: Washington (It's possible they go 12-1 and win Pac12, but, Wiscy or PSU wins B1G at 11-2, and OSU at 11-1 is picked over Washington)
TIER THREE: NEED HELP (need some further attrition above them)
B1G: Penn State (at a minimum, needs OSU to beat UM)
Pac12: Utah, Colorado
TIER FOUR: BARELY HAVE A PULSE (=Need Mucho Moar Chaos; the criteria is, there is at least one scenario which could put them in top 4, as remote as it might be)
BigXII: Oklahoma, Okahoma State, West Virginia (all need a 2- or 3-loss Pac12 champ, AND probably need Ohio State to win the B1G--which requires PSU to lose to MSU or Rutgers)
B1G: Nebraska (Wiscy loses to Minny, then Nebraska wins B1G title over 11-1 Michigan or 11-1 OSU; and UL loses to Houston, Clemson loses to 3-loss UNC or VaTech in ACC title; Pac12 has 2- or 3-loss champ; etc.)
Pac12: USC (ok, has 3 losses, but that was a long time ago in a LaLa Land far, far away; if it wins Pac12, and Ohio State wins B1G, and 3-loss VaTech or UNC wins ACC, and UL loses to Houston; etc.)
ACC: Louisville (need OSU to win B1G, meaning, needs Sparty to beat PSU; or, needs a bunch of choas in Pac12 and maybe also BigXII)
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What's funny is, there is ONLY one SEC team on this list! The SEC East is so bad, I think the current favorite to win that division is the Little Sisters of the Poor U. The SEC is so quarterback-challenged.
Teams that might win their conference but have NO CHANCE to make the CFP: Anyone in the SEC East (I think the current favorite to win that division is the Little Sisters of the Poor); Washington State (lost to a mediocre FCS team--no matter what chaos ensues, no way the Committee rewards that); Minnesota, Iowa & Northwestern (they are not yet mathematically eliminated; but all 3 need UW and UNL to lose both remaining games; and even if all that happens and they win the B1G, fat chance they climb to top 4); VaTech or UNC (bad 3 losses for each)
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My takeaway? Our loss to Iowa is actually the biggest problem for most teams. Because it sets up a VERY real possibility that Ohio State goes 11-1 but doesn't win the division -- Penn State would. That creates a >50% likelihood that OSU will get a "wild card" as the 2d B1G team, eating up a spot from most of the other wannabes. For that very reason, most of the country NEEDS Sparty to beat Penn State to eliminate that scenario.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^
For that very reason, most of the country NEEDS Sparty to beat Penn State to eliminate that scenario.
Or better yet, just needs us to beat Ohio State to eliminate both Ohio State and Penn State.
See, that's just what we do at Michigan. We give.
The Michigan Difference.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:51 AM ^
The Land Grant Trophy game is one of the rare instances where I'm a pretty avid MSU fan. It's not how much I like MSU (I don't) - it's how much I dislike that pedophile-enabling Joepalogist (TM) program in central PA.
Joe Knew.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
Why outsource knocking Penn State out of the Big Ten championship race to MSU?
Let's do it oursleves by beating Ohio State.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:46 AM ^
If Sparty beats both OSU and PSU that would help too.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^
Hey, they did it last year.
They have it in themselves somewhere.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:46 AM ^
Louisville?
November 14th, 2016 at 10:47 AM ^
I assume OP meant to include Louisville in Tier 2 since he said there were three teams there but listed only two. Oops?
November 14th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
Tier 2 has OSU (which should be in Tier 1 -- they are the No. 2 team in both polls and won't drop if they don't lose), Wisconsin and Washington.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^
They don't control their own destiny which seems to be OP's Tier 1 criteria. They're in the needs help category somewhere between Tier 2 & 3 despite the non-CFP polls.
November 14th, 2016 at 12:26 PM ^
The way I read this, Alabama is the only Tier 1 team. We know that they are the only team that can still lose a game and likely get into the CFP. If any other team loses another game, they are likely out (unless a bunch of teams lose another game).
Michigan is pretty much in the exact same boat as Ohio State (one loss, in conference, on the road, at night....). OSU gets the slight edge in that PSU is better than Iowa.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:53 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
don't think Louisville is as close to finished as you do. I think they could get in over a one loss Washington. OSU as the "wildcard" scenario would dash their hopes, but with the star appeal of Jackson I think they will get significant consideration for a spot.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:10 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 10:48 AM ^
I'd move Oklahoma and USC to mostly-dead / dead territory. Three losses should automatically preclude USC from consideration, plus they have no conference championship to redeem themselves. And OK lost to Houston and got destroyed at the hands of OSU.
The rest have a shot. Thanks to the OP for putting this together.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
We really hurt OSU badly by losing to Iowa. While OSU PROBABLY is in if they win out, not having that B1G championship with Clemson, Louisville, Washington, and Wisconsin all jockeying for position does not help their cause.
If Wisconsin wins the B1G championship, I think they have a pretty strong argument.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:00 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:02 AM ^
Three losses to mediocre, unranked teams. No wins over anyone remotely good:
VaTech lost to Tennessee, Syracuse, Georgia Tech
UNC lost to Georgia, VaTech, Duke
Unlike USC(YTUSC), which is screaming towards credibility, even winning out isn't going to help these 3, no matter what other chaos ensues. A 2-loss Louisville or 2-loss Penn State gets in over them.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:50 AM ^
I like that you put USC in there. Right now, they are the scariest team in the entire country, and a completely different team with a completely different QB than when they had those losses.
Based on the statements the committee makes about picking what they think are the best four, it would not surprise me at all to see them pick USC if chaos occurs and there are a bunch of marginal 2-loss teams competing for that 4th spot.
And they would be right. USC is a team nobody would want to face right now.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:16 AM ^
They could wind up beating both the Pac 12 North and South champions, and therefore the eventual Pac 12 champion. That's not just hype.
It's no worse than Clemson and Louisville running through the otherwise marginal ACC.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:20 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:30 AM ^
Yeah, those losses do count even though you got better. Body of work and all.
The only way USC gets in is if there is complete 2007-chaos and there are a bunch of weak 2-loss teams competeing for the 4th spot.
It's not impossible, but it's a very long shot.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:37 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 10:54 AM ^
You forgot Western Michigan.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^
0% chance Western makes the CFP. Their best win will be 22-21 over Northwestern and their SOS has to be near 100
November 14th, 2016 at 12:01 PM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 12:17 PM ^
Hard to detect the sarcasm in "You forgot Western Michigan"
November 14th, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^
Unless the world flips upside down and pretty much everyone finishes with 2-3 losses, WMU is not getting into the playoffs.
But it would be awesome. I said that to my brother while we were bemoaning the M game . . . Bama v WMU in the title game.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:58 AM ^
I was kidding about WMU. Sorry for any confusion.
November 14th, 2016 at 12:02 PM ^
Don't ever kid on the MGoBoard.
People's lives depend on what we do here.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:56 AM ^
Louisville probably belongs in Tier 3. They will be ranked highly, but they need help to win their own conference and are also in danger of dropping or staying in the same ranking spot because other teams will pass them with big win opportunities left on the schedule. I think Louisville has to have Clemson lose and to sneak into their ACC championship spot. Otherwise, OSU will beat them out for the wild card 4th spot if it becomes a reality for a non-champ. In summary, Louisville IMO is looking at finding themselves in the 5th spot at the end of the season in nearly every situation that doesn't have them winning the ACC (wake has to beat Clemson)
November 14th, 2016 at 11:04 AM ^
Louisville is probably Michigan's biggest fan right now. If we win the Big Ten, we pretty much knock out all the other Big Ten teams from contention. They would all have 2 losses and not be Big Ten champs. Louisville would get in over any of them.
Alabama is getting in, but the SEC is not getting a second team in. Clemson gets in if they win the ACC.
So it comes down to a one-loss non-ACC champion Louisville and a one-loss (or more) Pac 12 champion.
IMO, a one-loss non-champion Louisville should not get in over a one-loss Pac 12 champion (who will have to knock off a ranked Wash State and a ranked Colorado / Utah / USC to get there), but I'm not sure that's how the committee thinks. They are in blind love with Louisville right now.
So, Michigan could be the enabler that gets them in.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:08 AM ^
I agree. This is probably their best case scenario unless Wake upsets Clemson. They still should finish 5th, though, but who knows what the committee will do.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:30 PM ^
To make sure that a team like Louisville doesn't get left out. All five champs plus 3 at large teams. Only adds 1 more week.
The first round couldl fill up those worthless early Bowls. or could just be new regional games hopefully adding north dome stadiums like Detroit, Minneapolis or Indy.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:58 AM ^
You'll hear lots of Louisville love this week because of their win over Free Shoes, shootout loss to Clemson and systematic destruction of an otherwise weak ACC. They'll be this week's Washington except Louisville will continue to win.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
Pretty weak resume. FSU might not even be ranked after they play Florida.
If Louisville did not have the Heisman favorite they'd be looked on like WVU . . . a marginal team, but one that only has a single loss.
They would not be in everybody's top 4.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:23 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:28 AM ^
That's what the Heisman vote is for if you want to reward those guys.
Ranking an entire team who's best "win" was a loss in the CFP Top 4 is not how to do it.
November 14th, 2016 at 12:15 PM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 12:21 PM ^
That's what makes the committee's job so interesting.
Do you just pick who you think are the 4 best teams in college football at the end of the season, records be damned?
Or do you have to consider the whole season's "body of work" and count early losses against a team . . . even if you think that team is actually better than the teams currently in the top 4?
If you go with the former, you have to consider teams like USC and PSU more seriously. And you have to discount some teams you've had at the top like Clemson and Washington.
Clemson and Washington may make the CFP - because they win their conferences - but I think there are teams that won't make it that are better than them.
In my little world, I would pick solely based on who I thought the best 4 teams were . . . the 4 teams that I thought would beat every other team in college football if they played at the end of the season.
I would pick:
- Alabama
- The Michigan / Ohio State winner
- USC
- Not entirely sure for the 4th spot, but I'm skeptical about Louisville. If it was a close game, I'd probably go with the Michigan / Ohio State loser.
November 14th, 2016 at 10:59 AM ^
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November 14th, 2016 at 11:01 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:09 AM ^
From your posts this weekend, I think YOU are already complaining alot and its not even December....
What I think is funny is, when the CFP was introduced, traditionalists who liked the one-versus-two matchup in BCS (or prior to that) decried the "loss of the regular season," in that every game was meaningful, and now its not. It's true -- this weekend's results almost became meaningless, we were #/2/#3, lost a game to an unranked team, remain #3/#4. BUT, the number of fans with a rooting interest in the outcome of other games has grown.
Related questions -- Now that the FBS has a Championship, of sorts, isn't it wrong to keep calling it the FBS and the other one the FCS? Also, and I'm being random here, I love how the NCAA is like, no we can't have an 8-team playoff that's too many -- while Division III, if you didn't know, has a 32 team playoff! (Now, they do have a 10-game schedule, but that's still a 15 game season for the two finalists, over a shorter time period than FBS; if FBS went to 8 teams, it would be 16 games, but with almost an extra month of time.)
November 14th, 2016 at 11:48 AM ^
A four-team playoff still keeps the regular season highly important; you almost certainly have to win your conference and/or go 11-1 to get in. In all likelihood only one Big Ten team will get a bid.
An eight-team playoff would water things down a lot. Then you're talking about possibly three of Michigan, OSU and PSU/Wisconsin getting in, and the Game being not too terribly significant.
November 14th, 2016 at 9:38 PM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:54 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:05 AM ^
November 14th, 2016 at 11:29 AM ^
Well then don't. Keep your awful opinions to yourself. (just kidding...)
We control our own destiny but seeing how we handled our first true road test, I'm not as optimistic about the OSU game as I was, say 48 hours ago. But maybe this will serve as a wake up call to get us focused and ready. It was only one year ago that OSU looked awful in a loss to MSU and many were writing them off, then they blew us out. Let's hope for a similar scenario.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:58 AM ^
Committee will have an interesting decision related to OSU and a 2 loss B1G champ if that ends up being the case. Winner of the big ten will have a top 8 or better win in the title game. OSU will finish with a better regular season resume by a decent stretch but won't have the conference championship.