Defense: Utah v. Nebraska
To get an idea of how Michigan stacks up against Utah, I took at look at the closest thing that we have to a comparison. In back to back weeks, Fresno State played Utah (9/6) and Nebraska (9/13). Here’s a comparison of how Fresno State faired against their respective defenses.
Items to keep in mind:
-Utah played Fresno State at home; Nebraska played on the road at Fresno
-I looked at Fresno State’s top two leading rushers from each game
-Fresno appears to have had a QB competition. They played two against Utah, but settled on one for Nebraska. Brian Burrell played the entire fourth quarter against Utah and both drives resulted in touchdowns. Burrell then took every snap against Nebraska.
-Week 2 to week 3 improvement caveat
-There is no transitive property in football
| Fresno State Offense v. Utah | Fresno State Offense v. Nebraska | |
|---|---|---|
| Weather | Salt Lake City: HI 87 LO 62, 0.10” precipitation | Fresno: HI 102 LO 72, 0” precipitation |
| Halftime score | 31-7 | 27-5 |
| Final score | 59-27 | 55-19 |
| Total yards | 338 | 346 |
| Passing yards | 283 | 241 |
| QBs | Brandon Connette: 16/24 177 yards, 7.4 avg., 1 td 0 int | Brian Burrell: 30/59, 241 yards, 4.1 avg., 1 td 0 int |
| Brian Burrell: 8/16 106 yards 6.6 avg. 2 td 0 int | None | |
| Rushing Yards | 55 (not a typo; see below) | 105 |
| Tailback #1 | Marteze Waller: 15 carries, 61 yards, 4.1 ypc, long 23 | Brian Burrell: 9 carries, 59 yards, 6.6 ypc, long 66 (no typo) |
| Tailback #2 | Brandon Connette: 16 carries, 40 yards, 2.5 ypc, long 13 | Josh Quezada: 10 carries, 28 yards, 2.8 ypc, long 16 |
| Drives on offense | 16 | 18 |
| Punts | 8 | 13 |
I didn't want to clutter the chart, so if there is additional data you feel is pertinent, please share.
September 17th, 2014 at 12:00 PM ^
This actually makes me feel a bit better. It seems that the defenses are somewhat comparable, and nebraska is not good on defense.
September 17th, 2014 at 12:07 PM ^
by the one utah fan (the one that wasn't an ass) in the "A Closer Look at the Utes" thread Fresno St. did much of their damage against the 3rd string Utes D...
September 17th, 2014 at 12:09 PM ^
That was why I included what the half time score was. I assume the Utes fan was correct in that Utah was making a lot of substitutions in the third and fourth quarters.
September 17th, 2014 at 12:12 PM ^
allowing 50+ points in all 3 games. Though I have a hard time envisioning Fresno scoring 27 on us since we held similarly bad teams in App State and Miami to basically nothing. Even considering the ND game, I'm a firm believer in our run defense and the return of Peppers should bolster the pass D.
Utah is basically unproven at this point. I think we win by 10 or so. 34-25
September 17th, 2014 at 12:18 PM ^
I watched some of Utah's game against Idaho State. Though ISU is a bad FCS team with tiny players, they repeatedly gashed Utah up the middle on inside zone plays in the early going and had some success throwing the ball to TEs and slot receivers against Utah's LBs.
the strength of Utah's defense is a bad-ass pass rusher by the name of Nate Orchard; he was constantly in the backfield and killed several drives himself, either with sacks & TFLs or by blowing up plays that his teammates cleaned-up after. He'll be a big challenge for Cole on the edge--but if M can contain Orchard (and that's a big if), the rest of Utah's D isn't really all that impressive.
September 17th, 2014 at 4:33 PM ^
Orchard does seem like a great player, but they also haven't played a QB that can actually scramble..
If Gardner can be competent and look somewhat like ND gardner then we shouldn't have an issue. Still gonna be a tough game.. I hope the Defense can come out and have the game of the year against them
September 17th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^
Also of note: Utah is 2-9 on the road the last two seasons, with their only wins being at Colorado (42-35) in 2012 and at BYU (20-13) in 2013.
September 17th, 2014 at 12:30 PM ^
It's difficult to say much based on the fact that the Utes have played only Idaho State and Frenso State. On the surface, their rushing defense in two games would look impressive:
Yards per rush - 1.4
Rush attempts per game - 40
Rushing yards per game - 55
That really says much more to me about their competition to date being awful at this aspect of offense. The passing defense stats:
Yards per pass - 7.1
Pass attempts per game - 40
Pass yards per game - 283
Those are actually closer to bottom tier - granted, that's two games, so average of two numbers, strength of conclusion...blah blah...
September 17th, 2014 at 12:43 PM ^
I'll add some more comparing the two.
Defense:
Nebraska YPP: 3.98
Utah YPP: 4.23
These are through the whole game. They ran 87 plays against Nebraska and 80 against Utah.
And turnovers:
Nebraska: 0 FR, 0 INT (-1 TOM)
Utah: 1 FR, 0 INT (+1 TOM)
September 17th, 2014 at 12:45 PM ^
Our rush D seems fairly solid, our OL is improving, the WHOLE offense is working on a new system and improving, and we're at home.
Crossing my fingers on Taylor's injury b/c we need him back...ditto for Morgan.
September 17th, 2014 at 12:53 PM ^
This game will come down to our offensive performance against their D. I know there are Utah supporters who believe that they will come in here, pass all day and go up and down the field, putting up 30+ points. I think our D will have learned valuable lessons from the ND game and although I still think it's possible they are in the 20-25ish range, I think the defense will have something for them. The offense is going to have to stay on the field and find ways to keep drives going.
September 17th, 2014 at 1:41 PM ^
September 17th, 2014 at 11:41 PM ^
I'm sure it does help against some teams, but not schools like Idaho State that are also at a high elevation. I suspect it will play a role in next year's Michigan game though, and I don't know that there's a good way for a team like Michigan to prepare for it.
September 17th, 2014 at 1:42 PM ^
That Utah played their 2's and 3's exclusivly the second half where Nebraska didn't go to their bench defense until 8 minutes left in the 4th? Same goes for our offense. Our starters haven't played in the 3rd and 4th quarter in either game.
September 17th, 2014 at 10:39 PM ^
It's not solid evidence or damning in any way - it's just some data meant to be viewed. Both teams have their flaws and I'm sure that both coaches are aware of these. I wouldn't be offended - I would just take it for what it's worth. Small sample size against a bad team. There are obvious disclaimers for sure (think Michigan 3 turnovers in the second quarter of the Miami game) and this game should be interesting depending on how the game starts out.
Also, it is probably quite telling that Utah hasn't really been challenged yet this year. If you aren't playing your starters in the 3rd and 4th quarter, how prepared do you think they will be come Saturday?
September 17th, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^
95% of the people on this web site are very smart football fans. So you might be able to convince the 5% that the Utah coaches took out the first and second teams before the 2nd half started, but forget about trying to convince the rest of us about that BS. We all know no coach would ever pull his first and or his second team BEFORE the second half started. A half a game won't even get your team ready for next week, they should at least break a sweat and use part of the second half for sharpening the first teams skills like running fly routes. Not to mention so many other reasons like keep kickers fresh, blocking assignment practice. I could go on and on but I am sure you get my drift. I definetly know 95% of the people on this site know what I am talking about.
September 17th, 2014 at 1:57 PM ^
The main reason for responding is to comment on an interview local radio just did with Dan Dierdorf. What a great guy. Spent a lot of time on the NFL and its situation and reminiscing about Coach Schembechler. In talking about the upcoming game, he put the spotlight directly on both defenses. In Dan's mind:
Michigan Defense:
Must: Control Utah's run game. Complimentary of both Poole & Booker
Can't: Let the secondary bite on double moves & give up big plays.
Utah Defense:
Must: Pressure Gardner. Deirdorf mentioned turnovers in early UM games.
Can't: Be sloppy in lane assignments. Mentioned that's what happened in 1st half vs. ISU.
Also Dierdorf mentioned one injured player (it sounded like an RB) that may or may not play. Dan said that if this player doesn't play, it will go from challenging to extremely difficult for UM to sustain long drives.
September 17th, 2014 at 2:18 PM ^
Could that injured player be Funchess? Seems like the obvious player.
September 17th, 2014 at 2:44 PM ^
Sounded like he might be a game time decision and is a big part of the offense.
September 17th, 2014 at 5:19 PM ^
Sounds like Funchess. No one else but for Gardner is truly key to the offense
September 17th, 2014 at 8:17 PM ^
This should be an interesting Saturday. Utah will need any help they can get.
September 17th, 2014 at 10:16 PM ^
These are your 2013 Utah Utes situational records taken from here -
http://grfx.cstv.com/photos/schools/utah/sports/m-footbl/auto_pdf/2013-…
When Utah scores first: 4-1
When the Opp. scores first: 1-6
When Utah has more rushing yards: 3-3
When Opp. has more rushing yards: 2-4
When Utah has more passing yards: 2-1
When Opp. has more passing yards: 3-6
When Utah plays at home: 4-3
When Utah plays on the road: 1-4
When Utah plays on grass: 1-1
When Utah plays on artificial turf: 4-6
When Utah plays a day game: 3-4
When Utah plays a night game: 2-3
When Utah leads at halftime: 4-1
When Utah trails at halftime: 1-6
When Utah is tied at halftime: 0-0
When Utah leads after 3 quarters: 5-2
When Utah trails after 3 quarters: 0-5
When Utah is tied after 3 quarters: 0-0
When outcome is 10 or more points: 1-4
When outcome is 7 or less points: 4-3
When the game goes into overtime: 0-1
You win the coin toss - you take the ball Brady Hoke!
September 17th, 2014 at 10:29 PM ^
Also some interesting stats for their first two games, I won't summarize much because it's almost bedtime, but here's your link -
http://www.teamrankings.com/college-football/team/utah-utes/stats
Basically they don't throw the ball well, they run the ball a ton, they don't force turnovers - but they haven't given them either.
- They give up a lot of sacks
- They are pretty bad at passing defense
- They get penalized a bunch
Check it out for yourself, there's some really interesting things to exploit that I'm sure our coaches are already aware of.
September 17th, 2014 at 10:36 PM ^
12 Notre Dame A = 86.98 45 Utah A = 75.91 49 Michigan A = 74.83 84 Fresno State A = 65.44 (below Illinois and Jacksonville State, ahead of Akron and Rutgers)
140 Appalachian State A = 56.73 177 Miami-Ohio A = 49.97 198 Idaho State AA = 45.16 (right below EMU) With their current 3.97 home field advantage, Sagarin would predict:
Notre Dame by 16 over Michigan (31, off by 15)
Michigan by 29 over Miami (NTM) (24, off by -5)
Michigan by 22 over App State (38, off by 16)
Utah by 14 over Fresno State (32, off by 18)
Utah by 34 over Idaho State (42, off by 8)
Michigan by 4 over Utah
September 17th, 2014 at 11:26 PM ^
will be sucking wind late in the second half and wondering why they didn't play a team that would take them 4 quarters win or lose before they came to the Big House. Because I believe this game will go 4 quarters or dare I say it OT. In conclusion, because UM has been in one of those games on the road I would say being in another at home gives them a distinct advantage. GO BLUE!!!