Dane Brugler releases first mock draft / J.J. at #22
In my opinion Dane Brugler is one of the best draft analyst out there, and he is especially good early on in the draft process at identifying the players that will eventually be first round picks. After ranking J.J. #16 in his latest rankings early this month, his just mocked him going #22 to Seattle. This is his write up for McCarthy:
"McCarthy is a polarizing prospect. He has all the tools, and NFL coaches will love the intangibles, but evaluators want to see him put the offense on his back and take over games. It’s not that he can’t, it’s that he hasn’t really needed to given Michigan’s play style and schedule.
General manager John Schneider and head coach Pete Carroll see Seattle as a win-now team, but at some point, they will invest in a young quarterback to develop."
It is also very notable that Brugler now has McCarthy as the #4 QB off the board with Jayden Daniels being mocked as a top 10 pick (in addition to Caleb Williams and Drake Maye). I am not getting my hopes up that J.J. will pass up the chance to be a first round pick this year, but I think there is absolutely an argument to be made to come back for another year if he is going to be the #4 QB in this class and a late first round pick. As it stands right now, there is not a prospect on the same level as Caleb Williams or Drake Maye in the 2025 class. J.J. could very well be the first QB drafted in 2025.
https://theathletic.com/5096030/2023/11/29/nfl-mock-draft-2024-caleb-williams-drake-maye-bears-cardinals/?access_token=6757466&redirected=1
November 29th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
If he crushes it in the playoff and leads the team to a National Title, he should leave.
If he looks like a game manager, win or lose, he should come back.
Selfishly, hope he comes back. Defense should still be great next year, and I trust the O-line will be developed.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
Did you just hope we don’t win the national title?
November 29th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
Nah, we want to pave over the next 3 teams with our run game so that we win a national title and JJ comes back.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
"I trust the O-line will be developed."
Obviously, there will be notable changes on the OL next season - and, they need to get as much experience as necessary. With Zinter's injury, the remaining practices this week - and, the twenty practices for the bowl game - will be put to very good use.
So, are you placing your trust in Newsome and Moore? If so, I believe that your trust is extremely well placed.
An aside - some information about Newsome - "Newsome was named as one of 247Sports’ Top 30 Under 30 in 2021, and he was also named to the Class of 2023 American Football Coaches Association 35 Under 35."
Go Blue!
November 29th, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
Here's the rub: JJ, I and others have argued, should come back if he's allowed to air it out more on a team that's re-developing. But that (likely) means he's more at risk of injury, especially if the o-line is going to the NFL.
Knowing what we know about Jim and his players, I think that he'll urge him to go. The first round's enough. Fourteen for eighteen Saturday WITH the kind of management he exhibited, the big third-down throws. . . He's not huge, but that's not going to change. I'll bet he moves up the board when teams start looking closely.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:27 PM ^
The line looks good for next year, Hinton and Trent’s at tackle, Niger could come back or crippen at C, El-Hadi at G so really only one spot up for grabs and like3-4 hungry talented guys that have waited their turn fighting to guard 2…not to mention whatever transfers are coming in trying to boost their draft stock like Henderson.
November 29th, 2023 at 6:14 PM ^
Harbaugh urged Corum to go and he came back. Sure he was injured and stated "unfinished business," but his main reason was his love for this team and the University to experience something once in a life. Similarly, JJ has said numerous times he wants to leave a legacy and be "the greatest ever to do it" at his position at Michigan.
The kid is different/special - he's not solely motivated by monetary rewards. He has bigger goals and understand the long game. Most importantly, LOVES Michigan and Harbaugh. I can see Harbaugh advising the same, but I can see JJ coming back to be the greatest ever to do it at his beloved University.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Newsome is the TE coach though right?
Don't forget the portal....
November 29th, 2023 at 4:35 PM ^
I would think if Moore moves on for a HC gig (or takes over if JH rides off into the sunset), they would slide Newsome over as OL coach.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:42 PM ^
If JJ were to come back and we have decent RB's, why would the offense change? Wouldn't it still be run heavy?
As much as I would like to see JJ return ,I would encourage him to take the money and run. Too much risk to stay...get your pay day now. If you have success as a pro, the money will be there.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
There are more important things than maximizing how much money you can make. He will get paid either way, this year or next. I think he comes back.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:10 PM ^
This. If he is any good in the NFL the 2nd contract will be top 10 in the league etc etc. If he is "mid" then that first contract does matter.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:52 PM ^
Quite honestly, getting drafted LATE in the first round might be the most preferable option. In that case, you're going to good teams, will get a development year or two, and be set up for success. Avoids the chaos of going to terrible teams, like Bryce Young, or whoever the Bears QB de-jour is. Seahawks could be a great fit, but any team in the 20s could be an ideal scenario.
*Edit: many like-minded folks below. Smart folk, them.*
November 29th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Use "de jure" when referring to something that is legally recognized or established. Use "du jour" when referring to something that is currently popular or fashionable.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
Either applies here.
Bears QBs being bad is legally recognized and established.
Bears QB is currently bad, thus still popular or fashionable.
Lawyered.
November 29th, 2023 at 3:49 PM ^
It'll never happen, but JJ on the 49ers would be perfection.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
Football is a violent sport, and nothing in this life is guaranteed. If I have a first round grade at quarterback, I'm gone. A lot of things can happen in a single football season that can severely affect or completely destroy NFL hopes, even for a top prospect. No sense risking that if you're already going to be off the board in the first round, IMO.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
The only thing that matters is how he’s perceived by the NFL, which isn’t necessarily linked to how the team does. But the comment about him being “polarizing” as a prospect because Michigan’s system usually doesn’t allow him to carry the team might be a big reason why other 5 Star QBs don’t choose to come.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
I don't see how his role grows that much - if he's a game manager this year in the playoffs, he'll be one next year too. Our defense will be better next year but the O likely takes a step back, so if anything, we'll be more conservative than this year.
November 29th, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Sure seems like you’ve stated JJ staying as a matter of fact on multiple occasions
November 29th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
If harbaugh is back I think it's 75/25 he stays. But if harbaugh goes pro and say goes to the bears. I could totally see JJ following him. Bears have a lot of draft capital for a rebuild and I'd guess harbaugh would love to get a known quantity to develop there.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
Harbaugh ain't leaving. Hes atop of college football right now and can roll many more years. And say he did go to Bears, they aren't taking JJ with Fields there, unless he totally collapses the remainder of year.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
I feel like 35 fumbles, 120 sacks, and 27 INTs through 35 games is pretty much collapsing. Maybe not a Zach Wilson or Bryce Young kind of bust but just not somebody you can trust with the ball.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:30 PM ^
JJ going in the late 1st round is probably an ideal situation. Let him go to a team and sit for a few years behind an established QB. Go top 15 and an NFL team is going to force you into the starting job whether you're ready or not
November 29th, 2023 at 12:36 PM ^
That's the irony of not being the top-rated QB: ending up in a much better position to succeed. IMO, the Seahawks would be an ideal spot for JJ: excellent OL, running backs, and pass-catchers. Plus, he gets to reunite with Olu after he becomes the starter at C.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
That's the way the NFL used to be. Now the QBs all rise to top ten and forced into action, and the hit rate is 40%
November 29th, 2023 at 2:17 PM ^
As I said, I am not getting my hopes up he passes on that opportunity. There are certainly advantages to being drafted later in the first round by a (likely) better run franchise. At the same time, QB is a unique position in that experience is at such a premium. With the rules in place now that protect QBs where guys like Brady, Brees and Rodgers are playing into their 40s, you dont need to rush to get into the league as a QB. To be as prepared as possible entering the league (hello Brock Purdy) and putting yourself in the best position possible to earn that second contract while at the same time improving your draft stock into a Top 5 pick and earning an extra $15-$20 million on that initial contract, I do think there is a strong argument to be made to stay another year. That massive second contract is not a given by any means.
November 29th, 2023 at 10:31 PM ^
J.J. to the lions. Sit behind Goff, compete with HH with the chance to be the face of the franchise in a few years
November 29th, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
JJ it all comes down to 2 things. How the playoffs go and if Harbaugh leaves.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:32 PM ^
He's not leaving for the 22nd pick. He'll go back to Columbus to make it four in a row!
November 29th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^
I think there's a very good chance JJ stays. He loves playing at Michigan and wants to leave a legacy as one of the top 3 players in Michigan history. He also said during his Freshman year that he will be staying all 4 years, and I feel like JJ wants to live up to that promise.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
I believe he said he was going to graduate, which I am sure he is primed to do this year.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
There’s an argument to be made that being the #4 QB drafted is a blessing in disguise.
NFL teams like to YOLO new quarterbacks onto the field, and anyone at the top of the first round who’s looking for a QB probably doesn’t have a great OL or RB situation anyway.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
As always he’s got to do what’s best for him. He would have a shot at being first QB off the board would he to stay a year though it may make sense to strike while the iron is hot. Either way he’s left an incredible legacy here.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Was Jayden Daniels projected as a top 10 pick prior to this season?
November 29th, 2023 at 1:49 PM ^
I don't think so. And him going to Tampa seems like it would lock in a failure on both sides.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
No. He had a tumultuous run at ASU before transferring. Old red face has done a good job with him.
It was basically Caleb and Maye and then guesswork; mostly Penix but injury concerns there.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Purple face, please. Red is easy
November 29th, 2023 at 2:38 PM ^
I do not believe he was, and Brugler had him ranked as the #43 prospect on his latest Big Board earlier in the month. Brugler has been extremely good at identifying guys that will rise durinfg the draft process, so him putting Daniels as a Top 10 pick after where he had him ranked earlier in the month is significant.
November 29th, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
He wasn't even a 1st round pick a few weeks ago. He's put up some crazy numbers recently against awful defenses and analysts are over compensating
November 29th, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
I know that this is his first stab at a mock, but, given his limited pass rushing upside, having JTT going in the first round (to the Lions no less) gives me a lot of doubt about Brugler's prognostication ability.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
He should go this year BECAUSE he is a late first round pick (instead of the #1 QB pick).
Listen to the analysis: he has all the tools but has never put the offense on his back (because he hasn't had to). JJ is who he is. There are no big flaws to correct; he either has the moxie or he doesn't (think Patrick Mahomes vs Mitch Trubiski).
So, does he want all the pressure of going number 1 overall to a lousy team and having to start from day one with a weak supporting cast? Or, does he want to go later in the round to a good team where he can learn from an established starter? Think Dan Marino, Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers. Yeah, the rookie contract for the #1 pick is bigger, but the second professional contract for an established starter dwarfs either one.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
He's not going #1 in any year. He could move up a bit, but not #1.
November 29th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
There are a lot of teams in need of QBs. Four teams near the bottom of the first round could pick JJ:
Denver #18;
Minnesota #20;
Seattle #22
Pittsburg #23
All four teams would be great spots for him. Much better than going to Chicago.
November 29th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
I’d love love love for him to go to my Vikings. Just think of the JJ to JJ connection!
November 29th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
I have a few sneaking suspicions:
1) JJ will return for next year.
2) If he does go and he's available when they pick, the Lions will take him.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:18 PM ^
"If you have two quarterbacks, you have no quarterbacks"
But not if you play them at the same time.
JJ takes the snap, he throws backward to Hendon Hooker, who throws backward again to JJ, who launches it downfield to The Sun God for a Touchdown!
November 29th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^
Completely unsubstantiated, but I have heard that he has already told the coaches he intends to be back next year.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^
If so I think that will mean Orji leaves.
November 29th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
Fuck that, they need to find a way to bring him in on nearly every offensive play; wildcat, out wide, in the backfield.
Whatever.
Just use him so we don't lose him.