Could the B1G 3-Way Football Tiebreaker be Improved?
Well, the season isn't over yet. The best Michigan can realistically hope for is a tie for first (either a 3-way or a 2-way between OSU and UM, with UM winning the head-to-head). Here's a link to the tiebreaker rules for reference. The basic structure for a 3-way tie is:
1. The records of the 3 (or more) teams against each other are compared (most of the time they will all be 1-1 so it's not relevant).
2. Winning percentage of each team within their division is compared (with same number of games, this is not relevant).
3. The record of the 3 teams against the next highest-finishing teams in their conference is compared (with no losses of the top 3 except to each other, this is not relevant).
4. The records against common conference opponents are compared (see #3).
5. The records of non-division conference opponents are compared.
6. The records against the highest finishing non-divisional opponents are compared.
7. The team with the best overall winning percentage will win.
8. Random draw.
I guess most of these aren't a bad idea if the tied teams all have 3 losses, but if the top 3 teams only have losses against each other (which is most likely IMO), it goes to #5. This is based on luck of scheduling, not necessarily performance. In pretty much everyone sports tournament I've been in, points scored and/or allowed were involved. There's a lot that goes into each game (home vs. away, rivalry games, when in the season they were played, etc.), but points for/against or margin seems like a great way to find the best team. I think this would make a good tiebreaker after the first 2 and would eliminate the next tiebreakers which have scheduled luck involved.
If there's a 3-way tie this season (OSU beats MSU, UM does the impossible), OSU beat Minnesota and will probably beat Purdue. MSU beat Northwestern and will probably beat Purdue. UM beat Northwestern and Wisconsin. Here are the records of those opponents:
Minnesota: 4-1 (will probably finish 6-3 or 5-4)
Purdue: 3-2 (will probably finish 4-5 or 5-4)
Northwestern: 1-4 (will probably finish 2-7 or 3-6)
Wisconsin: 3-2 (will probably finish 7-2)
This means MSU's opponents' records will probably be from 6-12 to 8-10, UM's from 9-9 to 10-8, and OSU's from 9-9 to 11-7. If the records are tied, UM would probably win the next tiebreaker because they played Wisconsin who will finish above the other conference opponents. In reality, I think pretty much anyone would agree that OSU has looked the best in the conference, and the score margin tiebreaker would reflect that. Are there any better ideas for a tiebreaker?
November 1st, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
Maybe. Doesn't change things for 2021 though so I don't see the productivity of even thinking about it.
If Michigan went to the title game because of a random draw that would be funny as hell.
November 2nd, 2021 at 7:57 PM ^
The chances we win a 1 in 3 random draw have to be like .01%.
November 1st, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
We should worry about this if it gets to that point.
We've got to win out which includes beating both OSU and PSU.
MSU has to loss to OSU but win the rest which includes PSU.
OSU has to win out until they lose to us.
The chances of Michigan, MSU and OSU all being 8-1 in conference play while PSU has at least 5 conference losses is extremely slim.
November 1st, 2021 at 11:52 AM ^
basically, if we win out and OSU does until we play, it would not matter what MSU does
November 1st, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
This isn't true. OSU fares the best in a 3-way tiebreaker because UM & MSU played Northwestern, who will likely finish approx. 2-7 in the Big Ten which sinks us in the 5th tiebreaker.
So we really could use 2 MSU losses (with one coming in Columbus to OSU). Realistically, that either means this week @Purdue or the final week of the year against Penn State in East Lansing (MSU is going to beat Maryland at home).
November 1st, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
How about don't lose a 16 point lead and avoid the tie altogether.
November 1st, 2021 at 11:49 AM ^
Honestly, the best way to improve upon a three-way tiebreaker, is not to need one. I don't even know why these conversations about tiebreakers are being had right now. I just think that this has been talked about way more than is necessary at this point. Let's at least let the season play out before we get 8 steps deep into something that right now doesn't exist.
November 1st, 2021 at 11:55 AM ^
This is what happens when divisions beat up on each other. See the SEC & Pac 12
November 1st, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
Execute in the red zone, hold onto the ball, and win out. We will let the football gods take it from there.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:14 PM ^
How about winning the games you should, and never needing others to lose.
Lucas Oil is like a dream seven years in.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
Random draw would probably be more favorable to us than any rule that the B1G could come up with.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:30 PM ^
Eliminate divisions...the west is and always has been a joke. Let the 2 best teams play in the championship. Conference records taken 1st, then go by ranking as a tie breaker.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
One step further would be eliminate divisions, play a 8 game regular season and have the 9th game be a "position round" where 1 plays 4 and 2 plays 3 with the winners going on to the B1G Championship game. The other 10 teams get their 9th game by playing 5 vs 6, 7 vs 8 and so on. I think the advantage of this approach is that with no divisions, strength of schedule can get pretty uneven.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^
I like it! A conference mini tournament.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:41 PM ^
To give a real answer to your question (unlike most of the answers above me), I think it makes sense. If you have an "unsolvable" three way tie, you should try to figure out who had the toughest schedule to get to that point and that's what these tiebreakers do. I like that it only uses overall record as a last resort because non-conference degree of difficulty can be really variable. I do not like the idea of using the very subjective CFP rankings which value late season games more than early season games. College football is the only sport I can think of where when you lose a game makes any difference.
November 1st, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^
I agree with you. There is no "perfect" way to break a 3-way tie where each team has only one loss. But this is one of the better ways. It is a decent proxy for "strength of conference schedule."
As for the other options:
- As you said, CFP rankings is about as subjective as it gets. It would also, literally, mean that other conference ADs would have influence on who plays in the B1G Championship game! They, of course, have their own vested interest in things. Can you imagine: a, say, Texas Tech AD being on the committee and wanting to inflate what he considers the least-talented B1G East team into a higher ranking, so it increases the likelihood they lose and one of his conference's team makes the playoffs instead.
- Scoring margin --- that just incentives teams being bad sports. No.
- Non-conference record used to be higher in the order - if Michigan had beat Iowa in 2016 that would have come into play (PSU being eliminated because they lost to Pittsburgh). In a way, this was a proxy for "strength of schedule" but as you noted, OOC schedules can vary much more wildly than conference schedules.
November 1st, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^
Since there are 9 Big Ten games, the home/road split has to be 5/4 or 4/5. There is an option of giving a tiebreaker to a team that had to do 4/5. Unfortunately that would be no help this year, as all three of OSU, MSU, and M are 4/5.
November 1st, 2021 at 1:27 PM ^
This would never be a help. The 5-4 and 4-5 home vs. road split is divisional, so all the East teams are 4-5 in one year while all the West teams are 5-4, then vice versa,
November 1st, 2021 at 1:00 PM ^
Yes, the 3-way can be improved. Put in Riley Reid.
November 1st, 2021 at 1:43 PM ^
5-star?
/s
November 1st, 2021 at 1:28 PM ^
I think they do not have score margin as a tie breaker because it would encourage running up the score. I know Ohio State seems to do that anyway, but that is the reasoning.
Similarly, the playoff committee states that they do not consider margin of victory.
November 1st, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^
There’s already an alternate tie breaker scenario. It’s called “The league meets and votes OSU to the championship game” like last year.
November 1st, 2021 at 1:36 PM ^
Bottom line, 3-way ties suck.
Since divisional play, I recall only one conference that had one of these. In 2008, Texas, Texas Tech, and Oklahoma tied for the Big 12 South division championship with identical 7–1 conference records. They were each 1–1 against the other two.
The tie-breaker was the BCS rating. The reasoning was that the highest-ranked team in the BCS formula would have the best chance of finishing in the top two, and therefore being eligible for the national championship.
Under the rule, Oklahoma won the tie-breaker. The Sooners went on to win the Big 12 conference championship before losing to Florida in the BCS Championship Game.
November 1st, 2021 at 3:52 PM ^
BEAT OHIO!!! That's all that matters.
November 1st, 2021 at 4:06 PM ^
As long as we're running through fever dream scenarios, let's consider the case where M and MSU both win out. Obviously, a 13-0 Big Ten champ MSU is going to the playoffs. But I have to think a 11-1 Michigan whose only loss was to an undefeated conference champion would have a real shot at the playoffs as well.
November 1st, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^
Would be a political disaster, especially if Alabama beats Georgia. Because Georgia is in already. (Mizzou, Tennessee, Georgia Southern, Georgia Tech are their last four, so they're 12-0). Because yeah I could definitely see us getting in in that scenario if Oklahoma gets a loss.