RobM_24

October 27th, 2020 at 1:52 PM ^

I've never watched these guys before, but I think that's a really good and fair analysis. I'm also wondering just how bad Minnesota might be, especially defensively.

stephenrjking

October 27th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^

I think Minnesota's offense remains very good this year, a step below elite but roughly in line with last season.

I suspect, sadly, that their defense is a tire fire. That's not to say that our promise isn't real, but there was some baaad stuff in there. That first Charbonnet TD, for example--there's a reason that he ran for 70 yards untouched, and that reason was the MLB just hanging out behind his DL instead of playing the gap. Completely out of position. 

I have high hopes for our offense, but at no time did Minnesota ever seriously threaten it with competent defense. 

Mgoczar

October 27th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^

lol

So take the explosive plays out and this was an ok Michigan offense is what they are saying? 

The team with the most points, probably, should, I think, win the football game. 

ca_prophet

October 27th, 2020 at 6:04 PM ^

I won't pretend that I wasn't very glad to see that TD.  It was timely and awesome to see someone that big outrun the other team through a gaping hole wearing our colors.

The issue is "how predictive is that 70-yd TD for the rest of the season"?  The answer is almost certainly  "not very".  The fact that the OL opened a huge hole is likely predictive (even against a bad DL given that we've got a former walk-on center and are replacing NFL draft picks everywhere).  The fact that Charbonnet is fast is likely predictive.  The fact that the MLB was MIA is predictive for Minnesota, but not for us.  The fact that it was 70 yards isn't predictive - if we'd been on the one, he'd have gotten 99, and if we'd been on their 30 he'd only have gotten 30.  This is part why Football Outsiders reduces the value of long-gaining, rare plays, and why people try to distinguish between line yards (the first 5 or so; due mostly to the OL and DL involved) and highlight yards (the rest; dependent on the ballcarrier and the defensive back "7").

Put another way, if the MLB hits Charbonnet at 5 yards and slows him down, so the rest of the team converges 10 yards later and he drags them for 5 more, that's just as predictive for us as what actually happened.

Removing those long gains is an attempt to address that issue.

ImRightYouKnow

October 27th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^

Good to hear we got the mGoBlog shoutout saying that they read the comments.

@CFNerds: Keep doing what you're doing. I like the in-depth analysis you do. Don't listen to all the posters here who discount what you do just because you're from south of Toledo. 

Panther72

October 27th, 2020 at 3:31 PM ^

Reading some of these comments I would say, don't reflect the proper regard for PJ Fleck. I say his team will improve. He needs special teams to take a huge jump, but his OL and DL will end up good enough. 

What happened Saturday was the results of Michigan being hyped to play and due to achieve in Gattis offense. If it impressed Myer then I buy in to Michigan. 

I have been saying this off season that Harbaugh was due to put out a top notch QB. My eyes didn't lie to me. IMO

Panther72

October 27th, 2020 at 3:45 PM ^

Something or someone lit the spark for Michigan's physical performance last Saturday night. It appeared to be Mason by the looks of the first series block of Mini's backer that pushed the kid off of the field. I noticed Coach HB wasn't in any spirit to talk Mason down. He did the opposite. Mason played like an animal. The entire game saw, how many? 6 or 7 pancakes by different players.  

If we see that continue next Saturday at noon, its gonna be a fun season.

njvictor

October 27th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

I think they make good points about the running game. Need a bigger sample size to truly know how good our running game is. However, completely disregarding those huge runs is also not fair

Rafiki

October 27th, 2020 at 5:13 PM ^

Good content

The one thing I think they didn't discuss enough was how Patterson affected the run game last year. They talk about the run game not being good last year and that Patterson wasn't great but don't discuss how Patterson affected the run game. If Milton is willing to keep consistently more than Shea that alone should dramatically change the run game.

teldar

October 27th, 2020 at 8:55 PM ^

I was thinking this and am glad i read the comments first. Patterson made the entire offense cough and sputter. His unwillingness to hold onto the ball on obvious runs gutted the ability of the offense to get anything out of most of its plays. You play an offense where the QB has to run and the QB won't and it's an issue... I would imagine that with a bunch of first year starters all over the field for Michigan and we see some improvement, not regression like we did with Patterson "leading" the offense. 

 

Njia

October 27th, 2020 at 9:33 PM ^

Two years ago, their "model" was used to predict several Michigan games throughout the season. It ended up giving many of us a pretty false confidence because the math can't be wrong, right? So, many posters here were licking their chops in anticipation of demolishing the Buckeyes in Columbus. It, uh, didn't work out quite the way the fancy stats said it would.