Clarification on Graham Mertz/COVID protocol timeline
I know there are already a few threads about Mertz already, but the major one has fallen off the front page, and I figure it's better to try and make a thread to clarify this so hopefully everyone sees it instead of burying the info in a thread and having the same questions asked repeatedly moving forward. If people/the mods disagree, feel free to delete.
- According to Adam Rittenberg of ESPN, the 21 day protocol starts on the initial day of a positive test, which for Mertz was this past Saturday (link). Jeff Potrykus of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, who has been breaking most of this news, has also said that Mertz's initil positive test was Saturday.
- Also according to Potrykus, under B1G protocol a COVID positive player is not allowed to practice for at least 14 days, and the last 7 days of the protocol are there for the player to ramp up conditioning before playing, as well as for any cardiac tests to be performed (link).
- Potrykus and Rittenberg are also both reporting that Wisconsin's game this weekend against Nebraska is in jeopardy, with Nebraska planning as if the game will happen while Wisconsin may be forced to cancel (link).
Putting all of this together, the best case scenario for Mertz (which is what we're rooting for as we obviously don't want him to have any serious or longterm issues from this) is that he is out for 14 days and then has 7 days to ramp back up/practice before being able to play against Michigan. However if he has to quarantine longer than 14 days, isn't cleared in the last 7 days, or Chryst just decides he isn't ready to play against Michigan, he could still miss the Michigan game.
The last bullet point is also very relevant here. It's been reported that there are more positive tests on Wisconsin's roster that haven't been publicized (one that has been is 3rd string QB Chase Wolf), and the last bullet seems to confirm that point. It seems like Wisconsin is having a relatively major COVID outbreak among its team right now if this weekend's game is in jeopardy. That means we should expect to hear about more Wisconsin players testing positive and being the protocol moving forward. Unless all of those players also tested positive Saturday (unlikely due to the timeline of all these reports), any Wisconsin player besides Mertz who tests positive will definitively miss the Michigan game. The infected players will become known soon, either through reporting or seeing which players aren't at Wisconsin's next game (either against Nebraska this weekend or Purdue next).
The football takeaway from all of this is that even if Mertz is cleared to play the Michigan game, it'll be on one week of practice, over 3 weeks off from real snaps, coming back from COVID and with one career start under his belt. It's also very likely that there are multiple other Wisconsin players out for that game, although we obviously won't know who for a bit.
The real life takeaway is to hope that Mertz, Wolf and any other infected Badgers get healthy quickly, don't suffer and long term problems, and as few people as possible test positive moving forward.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:28 PM ^
Good chance Michigan game is cancelled if the cases are widespread.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:44 PM ^
Exactly. If they are over the limit for the Nebraska game, and none of those players missed this past weekend, then it would stand to reason that they would all still be out for the Michigan game as well. I don't see anyway a team in the Big10 can only miss one week in a row.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:55 PM ^
No, I don't agree. They may have to forfeit (technically no contest) this week based on the test and/or population positivity rates of 5% and 7.5% respectively. But, per B10 guidelines, those are calculated on a 7 day average. So if they had a spike over the weekend but immediately contained it, they could be screwed this week and still be below those rates for Purdue.
Now if they lost such a substantial amount of starters in this one outbreak, they could choose no contest for Purdue and so on, even if they met the B10 criteria, but that would be their choice. But since you need 6 games to qualify for the championship game (as of now), there is almost no chance in my opinion they would choose to forfeit against us (or Purdue) if they don't have to.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:59 PM ^
The OP assumes that the clock starts with the initial antigen test. But the Big Ten's official announcement says the clock starts "following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis." A positive antigen test doesn't necessarily indicate a positive diagnosis, whereas a PCR test is definitive in that regard.
The Big Ten will require student-athletes, coaches, trainers and other individuals that are on the field for all practices and games to undergo daily antigen testing. Test results must be completed and recorded prior to each practice or game. Student-athletes who test positive for the coronavirus through point of contact (POC) daily testing would require a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to confirm the result of the POC test...
All COVID-19 positive student-athletes will have to undergo comprehensive cardiac testing to include labs and biomarkers, ECG, Echocardiogram and a Cardiac MRI. Following cardiac evaluation, student-athletes must receive clearance from a cardiologist designated by the university for the primary purpose of cardiac clearance for COVID-19 positive student-athletes. The earliest a student-athlete can return to game competition is 21 days following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:04 PM ^
OP doesn't assume that. Andy Rittenberg stated it 3 hrs ago. He could be wrong, but presumably he tweeted it specifically to address this question.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:54 PM ^
I don't know if Rittenberg is in the know or not. He may be right, he may not be. The Wisconsin Rivals guy didn't seem sure as to when the 21 day clock started. I'm not sure what time the interview was with the Rivals guy on SiriusXM however.
October 28th, 2020 at 6:59 AM ^
Matt Bonesteel, sportswriter for the Washington Post, doesn't agree with Rittenberg:
Should his positive test be confirmed, Mertz, considered the top quarterback recruit ever to sign with Wisconsin, will not be allowed to play until Nov. 21 at Northwestern, at the earliest. He will miss games against Nebraska, Purdue and Michigan after tying a Badgers record with five touchdown passes and throwing just one incompletion on 21 attempts in their season-opening 45-7 rout of Illinois on Friday.
Who is correct? The plain language of the rule suggests Bonesteel, not Rittenberg, but you can't presume anything logical with the B1G.
October 28th, 2020 at 11:22 AM ^
I'm not sure if this Denis Dodd fellow has anymore info than Bonesteel, or Rittenberg but he is saying Mertz is out for 3 games. I believe Rittenberg is the outlier.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
"Student-athletes who test positive for the coronavirus through point of contact (POC) daily testing would require a polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test to confirm the result of the POC test."
October 27th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
This doesn't say anything about when the clock starts.
October 27th, 2020 at 8:07 PM ^
I though I read elsewhere and excerpt stating that it’s 21 days from confirmation of the positive test (I.e., the PCR) but I don’t see that on the Big Ten link, so I have no idea where that came from.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
I'm not assuming anything, I'm quoting Rittenberg who I assume knows better than any of us
Irony intended
October 28th, 2020 at 6:14 AM ^
The wording is somewhat ambiguous. It doesn't say that diagnosis = PCR test.
I don't know if Rittenberg received confirmation of his interpretation from a league official on this, so I am waiting for another outlet to address this particular question.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
As LewisBullox said, that's not the case. Games being cancelled are determined by a 7 day rolling average of positivity rate, and that includes all tests administered, not just to the players. The criteria are:
- Test positivity rate (number of positive tests divided by total number of tests administered):
- Green 0-2%
- Orange 2-5%
- Red >5%
- Population positivity rate (number of positive individuals divided by total population at risk):
- Green 0-3.5%
- Orange 3.5-7.5%
- Red >7.5%
If a team falls in the Red/Red category, they're required to shut down for at least seven days. If a team is Orange/Orange or Orange/Red, they are supposed to alter their day to day protocol and consider the viability of continuing with scheduled competition.
Even if a large chunk of Wisconsin tests positive now, putting Wisconsin in the Red/Red category, the Michigan game is almost 20 days away at this point. By that point most of the players who tested positive initially will have cleared the 14 day quarantine timeline and will most likely test negative again, most likely dropping both rates to acceptable rates. And, if I'm not mistaken, once a player has confirmed positive they won't get tested again until they've cleared quarantine so that artificially lowers the test positivity rate number, and likely moves Wisconsin out of the Red/Red category.
Basically the only way our game gets cancelled with the outbreak starting this far out is if Wisconsin is still having a steady stream of new cases for the next 12 or so days. For that to happen Wisconsin would basically have to just sit on their thumbs, doing nothing and letting infected people continually infect new people. Since testing is done everyday and the outbreak is happening now, you'd assume Wisconsin is starting to change protocols right now. If that's the case I really doubt our game is cancelled in almost 3 weeks.
October 27th, 2020 at 9:37 PM ^
Will be played, take it to the bank!
October 27th, 2020 at 5:29 PM ^
I think there’s also a good chance that our game against them will be cancelled.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:42 PM ^
You don't say. Oops, Sal beat you by a minute.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
Well written - I do wish that the Big 10 itself would clarify on the 21 day period because there are conflicting reports. It would be simple for them to do so. I am expecting we'll see Mertz on the 14th though.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:30 PM ^
They’ll clear it up once they figure out how it could derail Michigan’s season.
October 27th, 2020 at 8:00 PM ^
If this wasn't a QB on a marquee team I'd expect them to miss all three games. Since it is, I'm expecting he'll be back and perhaps that's why it was left intentionally vague in the first place.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:32 PM ^
Man, I’m really hoping our own team can stay healthy...
October 27th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
And that's the thing. The season is going to start getting farcical in a month when it's reduced to patchwork rosters and stars are missing 3 games in the middle of a shortened season. Whoever bubbles up their team the best might end up winning the B1G. Northwestern? Rutger? Who knows.
October 28th, 2020 at 8:27 AM ^
Me too. A Michigan player in the postgame pressers implied that everyone in the program is taking things very seriously because "nobody wants to be the guy" that tests positive and shuts down the program.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:36 PM ^
Yeah, Valenti is spouting bull$h1t that he is going to play. He's not - the 21 day clock started on Saturday.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
The only time I listen to Valenti is when I want to taste Sparty tears.
October 28th, 2020 at 10:43 AM ^
the only time I listen to Valenti is when he catches his face on fire.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
He can play. Saturday the 24th is the first day. The 21st day is November 13...
October 27th, 2020 at 6:17 PM ^
Is it the 21st day he can return, or he’s out for 21 days? That’s the big question
October 27th, 2020 at 5:48 PM ^
This comment is a non sequitur. OP just laid out that it sounds like he could play with the clock starting on Saturday. Technically, if his positive test was Saturday morning he would have had 21 full days from test to kickoff and a week of that to warm back up.
That said, how exactly the B10 is counting is not clear. Just like it's not for their test positivity rate or population positivity rate.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:38 PM ^
Stay Positive.
Test Negative.
Let's play football.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:43 PM ^
With that in mind, the outbreak on campus *seems* to be slowly trending down. Let's hope it a) continues for everyone's sake and b) no one on the football team (or anyone in contact with them) gets careless (e.g., go out for a Halloween party with a large group of friends & hangers-on after a big win against MSU).
https://campusblueprint.umich.edu/dashboard/
"In Washtenaw County over the past week there has been a continued steady rise in the rate of new COVID-19 cases within the 30-49 age group, while the rate among 18-29 yr residents is coming down slightly. The Washtenaw County Health Department’s Stay in Place order is in effect through Nov. 3 at 7a.m. With Halloween and the first home football game this weekend, U-M officials ask students to celebrate safely from their homes and avoid gatherings."
October 27th, 2020 at 7:24 PM ^
The 30-49 group needs to be lockdowned.
October 27th, 2020 at 9:45 PM ^
Its the geriatric crowd that are a concern
October 27th, 2020 at 9:46 PM ^
Stay home - Flatten The Curve
October 27th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
I can't imagine too many freshman quarterbacks have a ton of success against a Don Brown defense.
So he can play I think we'll be fine
October 27th, 2020 at 6:26 PM ^
Dr. Blitz defense >>> Lovie Smith defense
October 27th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
In summary they’ll probably forfeit the next two games and he’ll be back for the UM game.
October 27th, 2020 at 7:46 PM ^
In summary they’ll probably forfeit the next two games and he’ll be back for the UM game
Not possible. UM is the second game next weekend.
October 27th, 2020 at 10:47 PM ^
We play Indiana next Saturday, 11.7. Wiscy is 11.14
October 27th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
On the previous thread, a poster pulled what appears to be a verbatim quote from the league's Covid-19 protocols:
Should that test also come back positive, athletes must then undergo a cardiac evaluation and be approved to return by a heart specialist designated by their school. Athletes who test positive must sit out at least 21 days after the confirmation of their positive test before they can return to game competition.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:49 PM ^
So, what you're saying is that this post isn't clarifying anything. What you quoted makes the 21 days start on Monday when the real test was confirmed.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:00 PM ^
That's precisely NOT what I'm saying. The passage says he's eligible 21 days after the confirmation test, which took place yesterday. By that standard, Mertz won't be eligible to play against Michigan. Reading is fundamental.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:37 PM ^
I meant the original post wasn't clarifying anything, but eh fuck you too, bub. And my statement is still clear 21 days from Monday.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:45 PM ^
Yesterday was Monday. What the hell is going on here?
October 27th, 2020 at 6:00 PM ^
And presumably Andy Rittenberg realized that when clarifying that the clock starts from the initial rapid test. I will say that the Big 10 has done a poor job in communicating exactly how they are calculating things such as this or the positivity rates.
October 27th, 2020 at 6:06 PM ^
If you told me the commissioner was no longer employed by the conference I wouldn’t be surprised. Where is he at? No clarity on anything, not a word of support and care for the Wisconsin and other B1G athletes given this potential outbreak? It’s an embarrassment.
October 27th, 2020 at 7:09 PM ^
We have a commissioner? I thought Delaney retired?
October 27th, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
As far as i can tell, that is a verbatim quote from a WaPo article, not from the conference protocols.
The closest the actual protocol comes to this is the following: “The earliest a student-athlete can return to game competition is 21 days following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis.”
The problem with the actual statement from the protocols is that it doesn’t define what constitutes a ‘positive diagnosis’ - the initial POC test or the subsequent PCR.
so basically, nobody knows anything and we’re waiting on the conference to clarify what the protocols actually say.
October 28th, 2020 at 3:27 PM ^
This is the verbatim quote on the Big Ten website
All COVID-19 positive student-athletes will have to undergo comprehensive cardiac testing ... student-athletes must receive clearance from a cardiologist ...The earliest a student-athlete can return to game competition is 21 days following a COVID-19 positive diagnosis.
I'm not saying you're wrong but it doesn't say after the confirmation.
Right now there are 12 positives clearly putting Wisconsin in the 5% red margin. Hypothetically if they tested 150 people. The number of allowable positive tests would be 7. So if 5 of the current positives come back negative and they manage to stop any further spread Wisconsin could play Purdue on the 7th and us the following week.
October 27th, 2020 at 5:40 PM ^
Is he eligible to play on the 21st day? If the first positive test was confirmed on Saturday, then the Michigan game would be day 21. If it's based on the PCR test, that would be Monday, and the Michigan game would be day 19.
If the Nebraska game gets cancelled due to a wide spread outbreak, they will most likely cancel all the games until Northwestern. Hoping any players that may have not taken the quarantine protocols as seriously understand how detrimental the consequences can be on the team and from here on out we see less positive cases. Hope Mertz and anyone else who tests positive has a full recovery.