CFB gamblers gearing up for the season?
I was thinking of making a weekly thread for fellow degenerates and for people who may just want to ask questions about gambling. Football is the only sport I pay enough attention to put money on, but obviously we don’t have to limit ourselves to just football.
So what bets are you paying attention to?
Currently Alabama is -180 to win the SEC.
Ohio State is -230 to win the Big Ten
Clemson is -1100(!) to win the ACC
UNC at +700 however, might be worth a shot.
Alabama is +250 to win the title
OSU +600
Clemson is +350
Georgia +500
Oklahoma +750
ISU +2500
FWIW Michigan & Wisconsin are tied at 15th with the same odds @ +5000 to win the NC.
Gambling 101:
-150 means you have to bet $150 to win $100
+150 means you win $150 if you bet $100
August 13th, 2021 at 9:46 AM ^
I've been looking at team over/unders for the upcoming season and have made 2 bets.
Over 11 wins for OSU
Under 4.5 wins for MSU
My thinking for OSU is I really don't see them losing 2 games at all so that means I'm likely getting a push at worst. And if they somehow do go 10-2 or worse, then it's still a personal win for me.
For the MSU bet, I've looked at their schedule and I just cannot find 5 wins. I think their only likely/guaranteed wins are Youngstown St, Western Kentucky, and Nebraska. They would then need to win 2 of the following for me to lose my bet: @Northwestern, @Miami, @Rutgers, @Indiana, Michigan, @Purdue, and Maryland (Not even putting OSU or PSU as possibilities for them).
Finding 5 wins is difficult to do and I personally see them as a 4-8 team if all goes well.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
I was looking at MSU also. Northwestern doesn't typically put 2 good seasons in a row together. I could see them being a .500 team this year, and that makes the MSU game tricky. I could also see Rutgers being better than MSU...they beat them last year!
August 13th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
MSU is so weird to me. They weren't good last year of course and it was infuriating to lose to them but they should have beaten Rutgers in week 1. Then they hit the transfer portal hard so who knows if any of those players will work out. I could see them being bad again but not as bad as some are thinking.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:32 AM ^
I think they are going to be better honestly. Not good, but they will look competent and just won't have the firepower or athletes to beat better teams.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:18 PM ^
We actually have some pretty good athletes at WR and RB. The problem is they can’t do anything if the line can’t block and the QB can’t get them the ball, and those have been the main problems in recent years. And then there are major question marks at almost every position in the back 7 on defense which is never ideal. Some good athletes there as well but a lot of them are new and will take time to adjust. Should be a very interesting season - depending on how the transfers work out, this team could wind up anywhere from 3-9 to 8-4.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:17 PM ^
My big futures bet is MSU under 5.5 wins. I also bet on Michigan under 7.5 so I win some money if the season sucks. Sprinkled a little on UNC under 9.5. That one is dicey but found good odds.
I haven’t looked at any individual games yet. I enjoyed gambling on the spring FCS games and made enough to give me a little bankroll for the fall. I did pretty well last year in college football. I gave it all back with college hoops and NBA. Dabble a bit in MLB and up a little there. I have to stay away from the NBA next season.
August 13th, 2021 at 5:12 PM ^
OSU is breaking a new QB. could go awry. I'd take the under.
PSU is 8.5. I'd take the under there too.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:16 AM ^
I don't gamble.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
I didn't until this past wee when I finally opened account. The endless advertising finally paid off for them. I've learned in the first week that betting on baseball sucks. Parlays are enticing but tough to win. I'm looking forward to betting on football. I'll keep the bets very small though.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
Start betting the under dogs in baseball. See how that works out for you. Parlays are a suckers bet. Bet 2 dogs a day. You win one......you win money.
August 13th, 2021 at 3:12 PM ^
I wouldn't call parlays sucker bets. If you're only betting parlays, sure that's a fast way to lose money. However, if you place a parlay bet AND bet them all straight you'll come out on top more often than not. I make a few bets a day at $5 a piece, then parlay them with another $5, and have built quite a decent bankroll.
August 13th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
I've won plenty of 2, 3, 4 and 5 way parlays. I even won a few 6 way and one 7 way parlay in my betting "career". They are sucker bets if you put big money down on them. That's just dumb and you will quickly lose your bankroll doing stuff like that. But if you feel confident in a handful of bets then I think it's wise betting to put a small amount down on the parlay. For example, if I bet $5 each on four different spreads or over/unders I will typically put $1 on the parlay and maybe $2 on a teaser. Teasers are a good hedge in case you just miss on one or two of your spread bets, which happens a lot (to me anyway).
August 13th, 2021 at 10:17 AM ^
I don't think I'll make any of those bets. Here are my first of the season thus far.
San Jose State +17.5 (bought it up from +16) - I think USC is terribly overrated per usual. SJS returns a ton from a team that won it's conference last season. Their stud quarterback decided to come back as did most of their starters. I could actually see them pull off the upset in the Coliseum, might throw a few bucks on that ML which should be north of +550.
Mississippi State over 6 regular season wins. Wins over LaTech, Memphis, Vandy, Arkansas, TN State gets them to 5. Then just need one of the following for a push or two to cover, NC State, Kentucky, Auburn, Ole Miss. Mike Leach is fucking crazy and I think he might have something brewing in Starkvegas.
I'll reply to your posts every week with some of my picks. My favorite bets though usually involve NFL teams favorited by around a TD. I like to tease that down to a pickem along with the over/under.
(by the way, love that I'm considered "new" all of a sudden, makes me feel young again)
August 13th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
Mississippi State looks good...I can def see a path to 7 wins.
That is a big number for SJSU...and USC isn't terribly explosive. Good not great athletes with what seems to be poor coaching. Unfortunately sounds familiar and it's why I almost never take Michigan and the over when it's double digits. Then again, I rarely bet Michigan unless it's for them to not cover.
August 13th, 2021 at 5:52 PM ^
I don't know what to make of all of the "they bring back a lot of starters" analysis this offseason. Doesn't hold the same weight to me that it normally does because it applies to pretty much every team because no one had to leave due to the weird COVID eligibility rule in place last season. Only players that left are ones that went pro.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
I have a few futures bets:
Oklahoma winning CFBP +750
Clemson, Bama, OSU conf champs +262
Clem, Bama, OSU, Wisc Div champs +429
WMU/ULL parlay upsets week 1 +2675
August 13th, 2021 at 10:23 AM ^
Did you do WMU to win or to cover?
August 13th, 2021 at 10:29 AM ^
at +2675 they definitely took them to both win.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
Took both to win outright. Far more likely that ULL beats Texas, but just in case we lose, I needed some silver lining.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:38 AM ^
Only have one that I put in early. OSU to cover -13.5 at Minnesota week 1. Saw it was under 2TDs and decided to pull the trigger (currently at -14.5 on DraftKings).
Yeah I know, none of their QB's have thrown a college pass before but they're highly recruited players with possibly the best WR tandem in the country. Even if their defense has a couple holes, I don't see Minnesota being able to keep up and since it's a conference game, I don't know that they will necessarily call off the dogs early.
My next bets are going to be G5 or bad P5 teams that have a bunch of returning production against good teams to cover. The COVID year will help those teams more than teams that put out NFL talent every year so I could definitely see some closer than expected games or even some straight up wins (looking at you ULL at Texas).
August 13th, 2021 at 5:50 PM ^
OSU -13.5 seems like a really easy win. I'd have to imagine that line will be in the high teens by game time.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
I really enjoyed the college football pick em pool Bo Harbaugh used to do.
August 13th, 2021 at 10:51 AM ^
Bet with your head, not over it.
August 13th, 2021 at 11:02 AM ^
I don't have a problem with gambling a bit for fun, but something like 5% of bankrolls stay profitable in sports gambling. Calls and puts on meme or high beta stocks are probably more likely to make you any money since there's no vig.
On actual topic, OSU -14 against Minnesota seems like a slam dunk, which of course means it probably won't be. I know OSU has QB questions but this isn't 2019 Minnesota they're playing. I'd probably take WMU +17 before taking Minn +14.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^
lol, everyone I've ever met is in that 5%
August 13th, 2021 at 11:46 AM ^
Fellow degenerates - what are your favorite apps / sites for CFB betting?
August 13th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
I've always used bovada and never had any complaints
August 13th, 2021 at 5:56 PM ^
I also use Bovada. I recently started using the Bitcoin deposit/withdrawal option. It's a lot cheaper and easier than credit card deposits and check/wire transfer withdrawals. The bad thing is you need to put your money in a Bitcoin trading account such as Coinbase. And crypto is friggin volatile as hell. So that $500 you had earmarked for Bovada could be $400 the day after you deposit into the trading account. It could go higher as well but who knows? I just don't trust cryptocurrency so I I typically use my Coinbase account only as the go between with Bovada and try not to keep the money in Coinbase longer than a few hours.
August 13th, 2021 at 12:12 PM ^
My question:
How do we feel about M O/U 7.5 wins?
Personally I have a hard time seeing us get to 8.
OSU/@UW/@PSU I have as our three "guaranteed" losses, which means we could only afford to drop 1 of Northwestern/IU/Wash/@MSU (not to mention the rest of the schedule which could easily have an L hidden in there).
Maybe I'm betting as too much of a pessimist but there it is. Thoughts?
August 13th, 2021 at 12:34 PM ^
never bet on anything you're remotely emotionally attached to. that's my thought.
August 13th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^
Or if you're emotionally attached to it, bet the negative outcome. Then you'll be (kinda) happy either way.
August 13th, 2021 at 5:21 PM ^
I think we get to ten. I'm of same enthusiasm as the initial hire. Might bet on them 50 to 1 for natty and hedge if we beat OSU
August 13th, 2021 at 6:00 PM ^
I'll bite: what do you see with this roster and staff that makes you think they go from 2 wins to 2 losses on a season?
August 13th, 2021 at 12:25 PM ^
I don't gamble because I'd rather blow money on other stuff, but I totally get the excitement. make game you'd otherwise not give a shit about suddenly become very interesting.
August 13th, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
Misery betting for the average Michigan fan.
Pt. 1 - $100 moneyline on every game OSU plays until they lose or until you double your money. You will either get double your money or OSU gets uspet. People say winning 10 on 100 isnt worth betting but if your investments made you 10% a week you wouldnt be happy? Kind of a win win.
Pt. 2 - When Michigan is in big games (especially as underdogs) bet on the other team what you would pay to ensure a win. Money line of course. We win your insurance policy paid off, we lose and you get paid for your grief.
Im not proud to say I used Pt. 2 and made $500 off the revenge tour game vs OSU. Why so many people thought we were the better team was beyond me.
Its what we are left with. Prosper from your suffering!
August 13th, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
The day of the M vs. Army game in 2019, I was supposed to meet a friend at the newly opened local casino to watch. Kids' activities interfered, but the friend texted me that they had "futures" lines on games of the year, and that Michigan was, at that time, -3.5 vs. OSU.
At halftime, I broke every speed limit known to man getting to that casino before they could close/change that line. Paid for the kids' Christmas gifts with the profits.
Two of my biggest wins of all-time were going against Michigan football (the game above, plus Florida +6.5 in the 2018 Peach Bowl.) I like to joke that it's an emotional hedge, but I also think you can develop a good read on a team's emotion/motivation, etc. Or in the case above, you can simply recognize an oddsmaker's mistake.
August 14th, 2021 at 12:57 AM ^
There was a misery index at one time where Notre Dame, Msu, and OSu werent losing. I said if you put $100 for those 2-3 seasons on each game they all played you couldve won thousands. Hedge your happiness. Test the U of M hating gods that also hate your pocketbook.
August 13th, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
Wife got upset about me gambling on the basketball tournament despite coming out way ahead, so unfortunately that's it for me for the foreseeable future
August 13th, 2021 at 4:04 PM ^
I’m hoping my wife doesn’t see the PayPal gaming funds line in our bank account. I also hope I don’t have to go back to the well very often.
August 13th, 2021 at 8:06 PM ^
We budget for a little gambling money for me each sport season and something my wife wants. She comes out way ahead. I could probably get away with putting more in but I am not one of the 5% noted above so I stay within my budget. I normally “reinvest” any winnings which is not an investment at all. I made money on college football and I am doing even better with golf. A little profit in MLB. Everything else has been a loser for me. It is just something I do for entertainment and is included in the entertainment budget.
August 13th, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
I forsee myself losing a lot of money on "sure thing" MGO blog picks this coming year...