Brief History of M FB Recruiting vs OSU
This will be the first time in the last TWELVE recruiting cycles that Michigan had the highest rated class* in the Big Ten.
*composite ranking of all the major services
OSU has had the highest rated class in the Big Ten the last EIGHT years straight years! (and 10 of the last 11 years!) What an incredible accomplishment, and it helps explain their recent dominance in the rivalry. Here are the last 13 composite national rankings for Mich and OSU (with B10 rank in parentheses):
Year Mich OSU
2007 11 (1) 72 (!)
2008 11 (2) 10 (1)
2009 10 (2) 5 (1)
2010 17 (2) 18 (3)
2011 30 (5) 6 (1)
2012 6 (2) 5 (1)
2013 4 (2) 2 (1)
2014 20 (2) 3 (1)
2015 37 (5) 7 (1)
2016 8 (2) 4 (1)
2017 5 (2) 2 (1)
2018 22 (3) 2 (1)
2019 8 (1) 12 (3)
And that 2007 class should have an asterisk because it got decimated by attrition due to the RR transition and turmoil. The 2019 class can (knock on wood) expect stability and success in the years to come!
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:11 PM ^
OK, but remember, most of the NFL is average 3* guys. If you have good talent identifiers, those "average" recruits could turn out to be special.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:30 PM ^
We've already been over this a few times the past few days.
When you rank our guys 1-27 and take the corresponding averages against OSU and PSU, we match up in talent. Then we also have an additional haul of lottery tickets which they do not have.
So yeah, I guess we don't have a "smaller but higher rated class." But we also don't have a "big class of average players" either. It isn't like our top talented kid is a low 4 star .90 type or something. Instead, we have a "smaller & on-par class compared to both OSU & PSU" and then in ADDITION to that we've got another 10-12 lottery pick kids that neither OSU nor PSU have.
December 22nd, 2018 at 1:58 PM ^
Okay, I will tell you what we accomplished: We landed the top rated class for the 1st time in 12 years.
If you’re going to nitpick and qualify our class maybe we need another post topic to nitpick and qualify OSU’s last 8 classes to see if they REALLY did have the best class in the conference?
December 22nd, 2018 at 4:52 PM ^
Is this what you're looking for?
It's not the cumulative rankings that maintains Ohio State's advantage over Michigan. It's Ohio State's Blue-Chip ratio, the ratio of Four Star recruits to Three Star recruits. (On 247, this roughly corresponds to the average team rating.) Of course, if a team maintains a high Blue-Chip ratio, it seems quite likely that their cumulative ranking will also be high.
How does this play out? Well,Ohio State has a 92.62 team average over the past 4 years (3.876 Blue-Chip ratio); Michigan 89.74 (3.567 Blue-Chip ratio). Accordingly, Ohio State recruited 10 Five Star, 65 Four Star and 22 Three Star players during that time, while Michigan recruited 3 Five Star, 45 Four Star and 42 Three Star players. Ohio State recruited 43 more Four Star than Three Star players, while Michigan recruited only 3 more Four Star than Three Star players. (Additionally, Ohio State recruited 10 Five Star players to Michigan's 3.) To match Ohio State's Blue-Chip ratio, Michigan would have had to recruit 28 fewer Three Star recruits, and 28 more Four Star recruits (an average of 7 Four Star players per year).
So how about this year's class (so far)? Ohio State has a team average of 92.16 (3.875 Blue-Chip ratio) to Michigan's 90.37 (3.600 Blue-Chip ratio). So we see that Ryan Day's first recruiting class matches Urban Meyer's output over the past four years. To match Ohio State's 2019 Class Blue-Chip ratio, Michigan needed to recruit 6 fewer Three Star recruits, and 6 more Four Star recruits.
December 22nd, 2018 at 4:06 PM ^
Beat Ohio
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Take the upper X number of recruits out of our class, for all X less than or equal to OSU’s class size. Calculate the average star ranking. Report back.
December 22nd, 2018 at 1:33 PM ^
All these years of losing The Game and we still have people obsessed with recruits. The key is to stop coaching like gimps in big games.
December 22nd, 2018 at 1:48 PM ^
Nice selective memory. The 2017 gameplan was brilliant.
M wins that game with Speight or Peters.
December 22nd, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^
Not selective at all. The 14-0 start was brilliant but they had no answer when the fast start wore off.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:02 PM ^
Ah, bullshit. One example: the great play where Evans was wide fucking open in the 4th quarter and our QB can’t hit a simple short pass.
Wide open TEs missed in the 2nd half. Many drives died because of one guy having a nightmare game. The coaches can’t throw the ball for him.
December 22nd, 2018 at 1:55 PM ^
Our class is great but Ohio State’s is very impressive as well. We got a huge bump because of our class size, Ohio State’s is smaller but still filled with top tier talent, not to mention they are more than likely to land Fields from OSU. I can confidently assume however, that Day will not even be close to the recruiter Meyer was nationally. Urban has massive presence in the talent rich states for YEARS. I didn’t even know who Ryan Day was before last year. They will still get good guys, but no where near the level they have been accustomed to.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:12 PM ^
Ohio State is going to be hurt more by the resurgence of the Texas duo (UT and A&M) more then anything. Urban was killing it down there on the back of outstanding name recognition.
A&M is going to be legit for a while now on the recruiting trail. They have Jimbo, they have money, a passionate fan base, etc.
I really want A&M to become bamas foil. That'd juice up college football.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
This is a great point--similar to one I've been making for the past 1-2 years w/ regard to Michigan.
Success doesn't happen in isolation. It also is partly dependent on how well your rival programs--either on the field or in the world of recruiting--are doing as well.
Yes, Michigan shot itself in the foot for 10 years, but part of the issue in the early-Harbaugh years is that IN AGGREGATE, the combination of OSU/MSU/PSU/ND/Stanford/Wisconsin were performing far higher than their program historic norms. That takes more oxygen out of the tent that would normally be available to Michigan in the form of 1 or 2 extra wins each season, another 3-4 solid recruits we get instead of another program, etc.
Over time, you're going to start to see at least 2-3 of these programs if not 4-5 of them fall back to their historical averages, which creates more operating room for Michigan to land those extra few top recruits & win that extra game or two each year.
Similarly, Ohio State can either benefit from when traditional rivals (on field or in recruiting battles) are down, or suffer when those same traditional rivals are strong. Not only did it help that OSU hit back to back home run coaching hires, but they've also had the benefit of Michigan being out of it, the state of Texas being wide open for recruitment, etc.
December 22nd, 2018 at 2:39 PM ^
In other words recruiting rankings matter and if we want to beat OSU we better out recruit them.
December 22nd, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^
Did MSU out recruit OSU? Did Iowa? Did Purdue?
There's a ton a parity in college football. And probably not much difference in whether you're ranked #5 in the recruiting rankings or #25.
Urban was always a great recruiter, and decent x's and o's coach. But let's not pretend like Michigan had a bunch of nobody's on the team. Michigan easily had the talent to compete over the last 7-8 years.
December 22nd, 2018 at 4:29 PM ^
"And probably not much difference in whether you're ranked #5 in the recruiting rankings or #25. "
Perhaps not much difference between #5 and #10, but there is a very significant difference between #5 and #25. Look at the number of top (say) 100 players that get distributed across the teams in ranked in the top ten and then look at how many are left to the next fifteen teams.
"Michigan easily had the talent to compete over the last 7-8 years."
Undeniably true.
December 22nd, 2018 at 7:54 PM ^
Look, I understand all of the reasons being given - in this thread recruiting - but the real reason for their domination since Tressel is that once Michigan week hits Ohio, it sets the population and especially their program off like a bunch of rabid dogs waiting for the kill. Plain and simple. I can attest to that since I live amongst these a-holes. Most just won't even think/talk about a loss to Michigan - just not in their dialogue.
December 22nd, 2018 at 8:36 PM ^
To add: Urban Meyer stated that he probably wouldn't have retired if OSU lost to Michigan. That's how serious it is in Ohio
December 23rd, 2018 at 4:16 PM ^
I get the same thought from my cousin who lives there as well. Sure that has an effect. But Michigan has had a shortcoming on the OL last few years. Its well documented. This years the OL is better but right side was lacking at OSU. Also the pressure wasn't there on the interior DL. Not in the Indiana game and nothing the last game. Pressure the interior line on D and Barrett can't step up in the pocket. Then catch some key passes and it could have been much closer. There is nothing super human about the Bucks. They have talent and much hate. Michigan is getting there.
December 23rd, 2018 at 8:53 AM ^
Beat Ohio the next two years and start this thread again