Brian's 2015 Record vs the Spread
As most folks on this blog know, Brian tends to pick a goofy score in his game preview for each game. I have always took this as a Brian's pick against the spread even though he does not explicitly come out and say it. I am in a gambling pool where we pick 5 games against the spread and I will sometimes steal Brian's pick for the UM game given how much analysis he has done for the game.
I was curious how the season turned out for Brian and if he was better than 50% on his record vs the spread for UM games. I went back through all 12 game previews, took the spread from the Essentials in preview, and compared it against Brian's "pick." 12 games is a small sample size, it needed to be stated.
| Opponent | Spread 4 UM | Brian's Pick | Brian's Pick vs Spread | Actual |
| Utah* | +4.5 | 26-18 | UM | Utah |
| OSU (NTOSU) | -15 | 31-15 | UM | UM |
| UNLV | -34 | 43-0 | UM | UNLV |
| BYU | -6.5 | 25-17 | UM | UM |
| Maryland | -15.5 | 29-0 | UM | UM |
| Northwestern | -7.5 | 18-0 | UM | UM |
| MSU | -7 | 25-11 | UM | MSU |
| Minnesota | -13.5 | 22-0 | UM | Minnesota |
| Rutgers | -24.5 | 29-7 | Rutgers | UM |
| Indiana | -13 | 39-19 | UM | IU |
| PSU | -3.5 | 18-13 | UM | UM |
| OSU | +1 | 26-25 | UM | OSU |
*Utah's pick was Ace, but I am including it in Brian's record.
Brian's Record: 5-7
Observations
- I am an idiot. Brian picked UM to exceed Vegas's expectations 11 out of 12 times. That convinces me that Brian is more likely to be capturing the feelings of the fanbase with his pick rather than giving his true thoughts on the spread I actually think if Brian shared his actual pick against the spread, he would not have given UM the edge 11 times. One example is OSU, which I think he was pessimistic about our chances in his writing & podcasts, yet picked UM.
- UM was favored in 10 of 12 games and never a dog by more than 5 points. Harbaugh!
- We finished 6-6 against the spread, man those guys in Vegas know what they are doing.
December 21st, 2015 at 8:52 AM ^
I thought this was going to make a push for Brian to be a defensive assistant.
December 21st, 2015 at 8:56 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 9:08 AM ^
gotta be a little cautious when using the word 'spread' around here
December 21st, 2015 at 8:37 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 8:41 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 8:42 AM ^
Even at 5-7 he did better than Lee Corso this year.......but Brian we have come to expect more from you......next year do better
December 21st, 2015 at 9:18 AM ^
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December 21st, 2015 at 10:23 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 8:44 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 8:48 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 8:49 AM ^
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December 21st, 2015 at 8:55 AM ^
Brian's only pick against Michigan (when accounting for the spread) was Rutgers. That tells you all you need to know.
December 21st, 2015 at 9:14 AM ^
No, it doesn't actually.
December 21st, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 9:16 AM ^
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December 21st, 2015 at 9:05 AM ^
He picks the most improbable team totals so that if he ever gets it right it will look amazing. Could you imagine being on record and accurately predicting an 18-4 win? Bragging rights forever.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:15 AM ^
That way, you can look like you know what you are talking about if the score ends up anywhere from 17 to 21 for us to 3 to 7 for the opponents. If it's 17-3, hey look, I was only off by a couple points. But if you pick 17-3 and it's 21-7, that's still a reasonable prediction, but it's not as accurate as an 18-4 prediction.
December 21st, 2015 at 9:08 AM ^
Not gonnna lie, I totally read this as "Brown's 2015 Record vs the Spread". Needless to say, I was a little disappointed when I opened the thread.
December 21st, 2015 at 9:34 AM ^
- I realize that Brian thinks predicting scores is ridiculous and that his zany numbers are in response to that. However, I had a hunch that Brian based the margin of score on the spread and went up or down on that as a kind of proxy pick against the spread. So I was placing some meaning to his numbers in regards to my own purposes.
- This was meant to be fun. It is Brian's blog and he can do whatever he wants. I am not demanding accountability for Brian in regards to his 5-7 record. I do not want Brian to move to Nashville because of whackos in the Michigan fan community. That is more of an OSU thing.
December 21st, 2015 at 9:42 AM ^
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December 21st, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
He's consciously making ridiculous number combinations and I think he basically picks in four categories: big loss, small loss, small win, big win. and then tacks a goofy score onto it
December 21st, 2015 at 10:33 AM ^
and then almost always picks Michigan to win. He's not actually trying to pick the spread. He's making fun of people who do.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:06 AM ^
I've always thought he was voicing all of his cautionary notes in the body, going with a sentimental pick for UM in his summation--unless we were really obviously going to get massacreed.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:09 AM ^
If I'm reading this correctly, by your own chart.... Rutgers was a 24.5 point underdog. They lost by 22. They actually beat the spread. Brian was correct. Therefore, not 5-7 but 6-6.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
Rutgers did not beat the spread. 49-16 > 22.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:28 AM ^
stop da spreadz?
December 21st, 2015 at 12:35 PM ^
I've noticed, going back a few years now, that Brian's score predictions tend to be very optimistic regarding our defense. Michigan would basically have a top 5 scoring defense every year if the D could live up to his score predictions. This year it came fairly close to doing that awhile, but from Minnesota onward the disparity was sizeable.
December 21st, 2015 at 5:50 PM ^
Brain's 2015 Record vs the Spread?