Bracket Update from Lunardi / Rooting Interests for Tonight

I think we want SDSU to win and all other bubble teams to lose.  If it really came down to the two of us fighting for a spot the head to head likely factors in.  Otherwise having them finish strong gives us that extra Q1 win, another win against a tournament team, and boosts our weak non-conference schedule.  

a.)  thank you for putting these together.  interesting and informative.

b.)  who knew that illinois could seemingly shoot over 100% from 3?   

c.)  caitlin clark just canned another 3 against our girls.  launch point for this one is calculated to have been somewhere in northern missouri

d.)  its nice that with our crummy record (but tough schedule) that lunardi still has us in the bracket.  that said, we need to win two in a row starting tomorrow.  our NCAA chances are like this guy below, but we don't have chalk or a safety line....

I don’t know if all of this means that much. I still think that nothing is changed and we need to have 11 wins in conference. So we still need to win two of the last three. Not going to be easy.

MSU and Iowa are must win games. 
 

I think it is pretty simple.  Winning any combination of 2 out of the next 3 and we are safely in.  Losing 2 out of the next 3 will put us out and we would have to win the BIG Ten Tourney to get in.  

The thing I keep reminding myself of is that they have to find 68 teams to put in the bracket. While that is obvious, it does mean that just losing isn't necessarily going to bump UM out if there's no one to take their place. Agree with the other posters who have said that UM needs to get to 11-9 and not lose the Thursday game of the BTT. Pulling that off adds two more quality wins and no bad losses. Knocking someone off to make the BTT semis would likely keep UM safe from the play in. 

I know the committee says "we look at teams and pick who is most deserving, regardless of conference."

But BYU and SDSU are interesting cases - short of a total unexpected team winning their tournament, I have a hard time seeing the WCC or MWC getting 4 teams in (much less both of them).  

A SDSU loss tonight (in a very tough place to play, way up high in the sky) probably drops them to "win the MWC tournament or out" status.

Syracuse is frequently a really interesting case study in the craziness of the tournament. How many times, especially in recent years, have they had a very average to underwhelming year, sneak into the tournament, and then go on a run and/or score at least one major upset before bowing out? 

Wonder how much of that is due to the 2-3 zone they play. I don't follow scheme frequency at all, but what I remember the media constantly talking about when Michigan played them in the Final Four was that it was so hard to play against because very few teams employed it. Or at least employed it with the degree of success that Syracuse had. I remember Indiana and Marquette had absolutely no answers for that defense in the tournament that year. 

The rest of the ACC seems to know how to play them, though. Guess its like if you have to play the service academies every year, generally you fare better against their triple option because you literally see and play against it every year. But if they're only on the schedule every so often or every 5-10 years, you're going deep into the second half on upset alert.

Michigan needs 18 wins to feel good about getting in. That could be winning 2 out of 3 to end the season plus winning the first BTT game to avoid a bad loss or it could means winning 1 of 3 regular season games and needing a run to the conference final to get in, given that would include beating one of Wisconsin, Purdue, or Illinois at least. Either way its doable but tough. This team has clung to the bubble for a while, winning these last two home games would be huge.

I think beating Michigan State is highly unlikely.  They just pulled themselves out a slump with a game winner against Purdue and have an extra day of rest.  They are going to be riding high and we coming off a disappointing defeat and one day turnaround.  Hate to say it but I have an L penciled in there.  It is not in permanent marker, but I pressed down pretty hard with the pencil.

I think we are going to have to beat OSU on the road or make it to the BTT final.

This may be the first time I've ever said this, but being Michigan helps us big time here. The committee wants us in the dance. The B1G wants us in the dance. Hell, TruTV wants us in!

We'll win a coinflip if it comes down to that. But beat L'il  and Iowa and we're a lock. 

And how sweet to beat January, February, Izzo on March 1!

We'll go as far as our 3-pt shooting will take us. We're not depending on our defense.

In our 15 victories, we're a pretty decent 118/299 for 39.4%.

In our 12 losses, we're a miserable 51/209 for 24.4%.

Based on this, I'm hopeful but not optimistic.

Neg me but I don't see how getting into the tournament matters much. I don't think there is much chance they make it past the first weekend. Experience for the freshmen is the only thing of value I can see.

Big 14 tournament otoh. I'm hoping for a M W rematch.

2 reasons why making it matter.

1 - this isn't like college football.  Teams are so close in skill and have the ability to get hot.  Oregon State did nothing all year last year, won the Pac-12 tournament, and then made the Elite 8.  Getting in means you can go on a run.

2 - Perception.  Between Juwan's suspension, top 10 pre-season, and not making the tournament.  We'll get an entire offseason of "what's wrong with Michigan"

Thanks for this.  Appreciate the time you put in.  

As Don says, it really comes down to our 3-point shooting.  Our defense is not good.  Our 2-point shooting is pretty good.  If we can hit 3-pointers we can outscore people.  If we can't then our defense can't keep us in games against good teams.  

This team has a small chance of making it to the 2nd weekend of the tournament if they get hot, but best-case is more likely a 2nd-round loss against a 1 or 2 seed. 

One hope is that Dickinson can draw a lot more fouls once we get away from Big Ten refs.  But he will have to be careful not to pick up ticky-tack fouls on defense.

Win for Juwan.....

Root for Northwestern to beat Iowa to move back into the top 75 so that game becomes Q2 for us (Iowa is in no danger of dropping out of the top 30 so a loss is fine).  Our q2 record is looking suspect so would be nice to get them and Rutgers back in the top 75.  If both happened, Michigan's q2 record would go from a meh 2-3, to a solid 4-2.

Kansas St is well off the bubble at this point but a big loss from them would help the above two move back into the top 75 (they're currently 69th, nice).

All of this is moot if Michigan wins two more because they'll be locked in, but there is definitely a chance Michigan squeezes in with just one more win and a win in the BTT and for that to happen all this stuff does matter.  That's the nice thing about all these Q1 games.  Losses don't hurt much.

In the most-recent Bracket Project Bracket Matrix, updated as of February 28, 99 of the 119 listed bracketologists have Michigan in the NCAA Tournament with a projected 11-seed. Indiana has been listed by 96 of those bracketologists and a projected 12-seed. Rutgers, sinking fast, has been listed by only 30 of the listed bracketologists and projected as the third team out.

In games mentioned by True Blue 9:

Syracuse played at UNC for its NIT life and they took the Tar Heels to overtime, thanks to the great play of their senior transfer from Villanova, Cole Swider who scored a career high 36 points, before losing 88-79 on Senior Night at the Dean Dome. LINK They’re 15-15 overall and 9-10 in the weakened ACC. They can finish no worse than 9th in the ACC.

UNC is now 22-8 and 14-5 in third place in the ACC. They finish the regular season at Duke on Saturday in Coach K's final game at Cameron Indoor Stadium.

The Syracuse loss means that they’d have to beat Miami (20-9 and 12-6 in the league; playing for an NCAA bid) in the regular-season finale at the Dome in order to guarantee an NIT bid with a .500 record. A loss to Miami would require them to do no worse than 2-1 in the ACC tournament to be considered for the NIT.

NOTE: Except for two seasons when ‘Cuse was ineligible due to NCAA violations and the 2019-20 season when the post-season was canceled, this could be the first season when a Syracuse team coached by Jim Boeheim does NOT play in the post-season.

Texas Tech at home beat Kansas State 73-68, so it’s probably safe to say that Kansas State (14-15 and 6-11 in the Big XII) might have a hard time qualifying for the NIT. LINK

San Diego State won at Wyoming 73-66. Moving San Diego State closer to securing their NCAA bid. They’re listed by 114 of those bracketologists and a projected 11-seed. LINK

FUN FACT: The Bracket Matrix of February 28 lists San Diego State, Miami, North Carolina and Michigan as the 11-seeds in that order. The Wolverines lost at UNC 72-51 on December 1 before beating San Diego State in Ann Arbor 72-58 on December 4. If Michigan were to play Miami for an 11-seed in the First Four, would Vegas offer a prop bet that the winning team would score 72 points in that game?

Well based off True Blue 9's thoughts it was not a great night:

UNC beat Syracuse in OT

And S.D. St. beat Wyoming

At least K. State lost to Texas Tech.

Go Blue! Beat State!