5% of NBA players tested on Tues are positive for COVID
https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29369877/16-302-nba-players-test-positive-coronavirus
302 NBA players were tested on Tuesday, and 16 tested positive, just over 5%. Those players will be isolated.
Count me as 1 that would love to see the NBA not happen. Just cancel it. Whiny babies....most of them anyways.
The world is dangerous place, just stay home LeBron.
Racking up Mgopoints since 2011!
Good work calling the NBA players whiny babies in a post where you're a whiny baby yourself.
Nah the NBA is much needed. This country needs a distraction. Hopefully the NBA can provide.
I'm afraid the NBA bubble thing in Orlando will not work out. In a state that has sky rocketing new cases? How does the whole hotel bubble thing work when you have all sorts of people from the outside doing cleaning, cooking, etc.
And while I'm thinking of it, the states where cases are skyrocketing is smack in the middle of SEC country. No way the SEC plays this fall. And if they don't the pressure will be on other colleges to do the same.
I mean, you expect the governments to shut things back down in those states? Hell they haven't even mandated face masks yet. At least Orange Co FL's mayor mandated facemasks in the orlando area.
Mandate is one thing,who is going to enforce it. Do you expect the police to enforce it?
One week ago it was defund the police.
Police are so yesterday. Unarmed citizen militias who will go around yelling at people until they acquiesce. Shaming will be back.
Freddy, here in florida, infections have gone up as has testing. Hospitalization's and deaths keep trending down. That tells me some of these new positives are either asymptomatic or people that have had it already and have the immunities. Otherwise hospitalizations and deaths would be going up. The busiest hospital is at 70% capacity, that includes elective surgeries. Everything was heading in the right direction till we had millions 18-34 year olds ignoring ppe and social distancing to protest. AND NO ONE WARNED THEM THEY WERE PUTTING THEMSELVES AND OTHERS IN DANGER. that is some real hypocrisy at work. But we still need herd immunity.
I could be wrong, but isn't the whole point of the bubble that the support staff also stay in the bubble? Such as cleaners, cooks, etc.
Bill Simmons discussed this on his podcast. Apparently, Disney employees will be providing the ancillary services (cooking, cleaning, etc). They’re part of a union that will restrict what they are required to do including staying inside the bubble. Sounds like those workers will be coming and going from their homes.
Feels like they’re violating the circle of trust.
You don't think the SEC will play? I bet they will. The spike is happening now when it's so hot in the south that everyone comes inside in air conditioning so it's somewhat weather induced spread like it was in the north in March-April. Those states will probably be in solid decline come Sept.
And we know what lengths they'll go to make sure they play college football.
Hey buddy, thanks for your input...noted.
That seems about right in terms of percentages. It doesn't say in the article but I assume this is the antibody test and not the nasal one.
EDIT: Yeah, the antibody test wouldn't make sense here. I thought the nasal swap wasn't particularly accurate, but I guess it's the best we've got.
If it is the antibody test why would they be isolated?
Yeah, you're right.
No, it's both tests, starting Tuesday (23rd). I found an earlier article & posted below in response to someone else. From https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/29321006/in-documents-nba-details-coronavirus-testing-process-orlando-campus-life:
"Phase 2, which starts June 23, will have players being tested every other day, as well as the two days prior to when teams are scheduled to leave for Florida. Players' first test will be both a test for COVID-19 done via a shallow nasal swab and oral swab and an antibody test done via a blood draw. The COVID-19 test will be repeated every other day, and the antibody test will be repeated only if a player tests positive."
i thought it was the other way around.
PCR test is accurate, antibody test is not.
Nasal swab is accurate for positive results, it's the negative results that aren't as accurate (80%).
The positive tests will also have inaccurate results too. No test is perfect. I'm not sure what the false positive rate is for that test, but my initial reaction was 'huh 5% positive for a decent sample is probably around it's error rate'. I think the NSWL orlando team didn't do there tourneydue to a bunch of asymptomatic players testing positive that were tested the next day and a whole bunch of them were then negative on a second test.
I think you should look that one up. What I read (I'm not going back to dig it up, sorry) was that it has a 100% accuracy for positive samples, and about 80% for negative.
Here’s a handy template:
How anyone could _________ is beyond me. What a bunch of ________. People are such _______. Don’t even get me started on ______.
This whole year seems like a MadLib gone awry.
This does not surprise me. As of today, the total number of confirmed Covid-19 cases in the U.S. is just under 2.5 million. The CDC released a study that suggests this represents just 1/10th of all cases in the population to date. That means about 8% of the country has been infected, and its much higher in the most populated states and cities.
A couple of things to remember, however. It's taken the U.S. about 4 months to go from a handful of cases to 2.5 million. Although the daily case rate is starting to accelerate, let's assume for the moment that it remains about the same over time. In one year, about 25% of the U.S. will be or will have been infected. That's a high number, and it means a lot of deaths; but it doesn't mean that even a majority of the country will be infected in any given year.
That buys researchers and pharma companies time to develop a vaccine before the number of deaths reaches the levels of a biblical calamity. It's actually a hopeful sign.
On the other hand, if the acceleration continues, then all bets are off.
Saw something last night that given current course and speed, the percentage of Americans infected could be 50% by the end of the year. Will it happen? Who knows given our current behavior. Of course, that means hospitals would be overwhelmed in many places and deaths would be at a higher level because people can't get care. I'm hoping that's not how this plays out. We are the food for the virus. We can withdraw the food, tamp the infection rate down, and then manage and trace the cases. Other countries are managing to do this. Would be nice if we could behave well enough to give it a try.
Unfortunately I have a feeling this is exactly what will happen. People are done being quarantined or sheltering in place. Each person will determine their own risk of dying from the virus and adjust their life accordingly. Just get those advanced directives filled out first so we can decide who gets a vent.
Our current behavior, though not ideal, is still way better than it was in mid-late March when this thing was first spreading and almost no one was wearing a mask or social distancing. Hell, I was riding a packed commuter train in a major city up until the day before the governor shut our state down, I didn't see a single person taking any precautions then.
Given how many more people take it seriously now (even if it's not everyone), I doubt we hit any apocalypse scenarios or infect over half the country.
For what it's worth, this model (one of the models cited by the CDC) estimates that a total of 5% of the population of the US has been infected as of today, and based on *current* data, its guess is that ~30 million will be infected by October 1st. What I like about this model is that it's purely data driven and offers a range of predicted infection rates. The link for the US portion is https://covid19-projections.com/us
we're so woefully behind on testing no one, including the CDC, has any idea how many people have it or have had it. there are models showing as much as 80x the current estimates could actually have had or have it. We know it's highly transmissible, but everything is still a guess, because despite improvements it's still very difficult to test most Americans. I know zero people who have been tested, and several people who believe firmly they've had it. Given the little bit we know about asymptomatic carriers, I probably know lots of people who have had it and don't know it. The truth is, in this country, we still don't know more than we know about this thing.
I’m pretty sure nobody is suggesting that there are 80x confirmed cases. That would be 200 million in the US. That doesn’t seem possible on so may levels as it would imply over 60% of the US have had Covid-19.
80x is incorrect...right now some experts believe it is 10x...So about 20M people actually have Corona based on 2M actual positive tests.
One problem though with that is a year from now a lot of people who got in early on may no longer have the antibodies to fight it and could get infected again
But as Sopwith has pointed out, immunity isn’t just about the IgG and IgM antibodies. Memory B-cells are the “mugshots” (to use his term) taken by the immune system that it uses the next time the virus comes to town to tear shit up. It’s unclear at this stage whether or if B-cells are retained, and there is no way to know at this point. If at some point the virus is in decline after a large enough percentage of the population has either been infected or immunized, then we will know.
@Sopwith: Did I get that right?
Don't listen to the media for anything related to covid. Stick with the numbers.
cdc.gov/covid
Stick to the math,you'll feel much better about things vs relying on the media.
Haha! Long time, (nearly) first time.
Very perceptive of you Fun Guy!
I don't have a good feeling about all of this. I think the players' Kryptonite in all sports, both collegiate and professional, will be the fairer sex. I just don't see thousands of males living in these bubbles and staying away from women that are not living in the same bubbles.
You're getting down-voted, but I think it is because of your wording ("fairer sex" is, at best, a dated term). To say that players and athletes at all levels might abstain from sports for a bit because of pressure from family members is actually a good point. A lot of the players have bills to pay, yes, but many of them are in a financially secure position and don't need to take an extra risk.
i downvoted because I think it's hilariously delusional when people promote abstinence.
well then you might want to re-read my post, especially this sentence.
" I just don't see thousands of males living in these bubbles and staying away from women that are not living in the same bubbles."
Go ahead and point out where I'm promoting abstinence. My whole post is based on players NOT abstaining from having sex.
The players will do whatever they have to do to get paid. People in the military deploy for months and months. People who work on offshore platforms or in the merchant marine, same same. And those are just working schlubbs, not millionaires.
We’ll see....
also, most collegiate players do not get paid.
I downvoted because it's Kryptonite, man.
Ha, ok I had to edit that embarrassment and should have been downvoted based on that. think i've had crypto currencies on my mind. not understanding the other reasons, but it is what it is.
It's not part of the story - bet I'd bet the majority are asymptomatic. That's what we've seen in a number of cases where an entire population (prison, meat packing plant, etc) are tested.
Also, 302 isn't exactly the largest sample size (I'm too lazy to do the statistical test right now, to get any sort of error range or probabilities) - but if one extrapolates that 5% out to America as a whole, that means about 16.5MM of us are infected right now.
I got in this debate last time. They clearly only got tested because ot was mandated, so even if theyre labeled symptomatic, at the very least they werent symptomatic enough to get tested.
"Phase 2, which starts June 23, will have players being tested every other day, as well as the two days prior to when teams are scheduled to leave for Florida. Players' first test will be both a test for COVID-19 done via a shallow nasal swab and oral swab and an antibody test done via a blood draw. The COVID-19 test will be repeated every other day, and the antibody test will be repeated only if a player tests positive."
It's not in the first article I posted, so I had to look it up, because it would be unbelievably stupid to only test symptomatic players. Thankfully, that's not the case. The first article I posted said positive for the virus, so I don't believe that includes antibodies, but it may.
That's not what Im saying.
Im saying these players were only tested because it was mandated so I would consider them asymptomatic.
Edited mine, thanks.
Does that distinction matter? I think the point is that 5% of 302 are positive (which, to NittanyFan's point, I believe is a significant enough sample to say something about the potential for CFB), and that the protocol currently says they are to be isolated.
If we expect anywhere near 5% of football players to be positive (and ruled temporary ineligible) at any given time between late August & November, is that really a decent setting for playing legitimate games? I haven't looked up injury rates, but I wonder how something like that compares. And if the 5% average means 20% for a single team, asymptomatic or not, you're not playing a game or two, right?
Yeah, I agree that's what will happen, and asymptomatic wouldnt matter in that context. Just interesting that so many people have it and dont get sick at all.
I dont know. Ive just accepted we're all going to get it, so it's good to see it not affecting so many people.