2010: What teams' Luck is Turning / Running Out?
Saw this this a.m. One writer's take on teams living on the edge that can be expected to fall, and those that have been losing close games but may turn it around. Typical off season speculation, but what else are you going to do ...
Of slight note, Michigan plays three "Luck is turning" teams and one "Luck is Running Out."
So here's the question to the community: do you have other teams not on Rivals list in either category (or in a broader sense, teams you think that may outperform or underperform expectations this year)?
Here are a few of mine:
Improved.
I like EMU to win 4-5 (yes, even without Johnny Sears.) Considering they O'fered last year, this shouldn't be too tough, and they were competitive in some games in 09.
Miami. Canes will get a lot of pub over the summer, I would expect—they're not really off the radar. But I like them for a national title run, if they can make it through the first week in October going 3-1 or 4-0. No small feat, though, going to OSU, Pitt and Clemson.
Moving on Down.
Georgia. They're coming off a mediocre year. The SEC East is a bit down, so that may be one of the few things going for them. New DC coming in to help a unit that struggled last year. No QB on roster with a meaningful snap. Status quo or worse for the Dawgs.
CMU. Losing LaFevour obviously hurts (maybe more than Florida losing Tebow). Who knows what kind of HC Enos will make. Lots of questions.
Luck is running out: Penn State
Losing Clark is going to hurt them significantly. Their quarterback play is going to be really subpar this year. They always have a decent defense and they have a couple good runners, but the most important offensive positions (QB and OL) are depleted.
Luck is running out: West Virginia
Not having an experienced quarterback is going to hurt them. They have a couple talented runners, but I think they're headed downhill. I'm expecting them to be 6-6, give or take a game.
Luck is running out: Oregon
Too many issues/suspensions to deal with.
in 2010, but I suspect that they might not experience a big drop-off in terms of W's. Both have pretty favorable schedules next season...
WVU in 2010
Coastal Carolina, Marshall, Maryland, UNLV, Syracuse and Louisville should all be pretty easy wins. They have USF, Cincy and Rutgers in Morgantown so I think they will win probably win 2 of those. The likely losses are road games at LSU, UConn and Pitt. Best guess: WVU goes 8-4 next season.
PSU in 2010
YSU, Kent St., Temple, Illinois, Minnesota and Indiana should all be easy wins. They get Michigan, N'Western and MSU all in Happy Valley so, again, I think they will win 2 of those games (quite possibly all three.) Likely losses are road games at Bama, Iowa and OSU. Best guess: PSU goes 8-4 or 9-3 next season.
Bill Stewart is around another few years at WVU see we can graph the decline in Morgantown vs. the uptick in Ann Arbor. Not that I want bad things to happen to coach Stew, as he seems like a stand up guy, but I imagine 2010 is the year Michigan and W. Virginia's trajectories cross paths.
PSU - If Paul Jones wins the starting job (which isn't all that crazy of a thought at this point, apparently), how long before Kevin Newsome to transfer rumors start?
Every time I see his name, I want to put a "John" in front of "Paul Jones."
When did northwestern ever have luck? besides last year, they have been average to below average for quite sometime
They're the luckiest team in the nation 2 years running. Just think how bad they could have been WITHOUT that luck.
... all relative, I guess, but since Barnett, Walker, and now Fitzgeraldo, NU has been pretty respectable. Granted they have had the odd year of being bad.
I don't have then numbers in front of me, but since Barnett, it's my recollection they've been better than Michigan State, Illinois, Indiana on whole, and probably on par with Minny (in the Mason-era) and Purdue and maybe Iowa.
In the last 15 years (starting in 1995 season), Northwestern has 1 Rose Bowl, 2 Big Ten championships, and 7 bowl appearances.
MSU: 0 Rose Bowls, 0 Big Ten titles, 8 bowl appearances
Iowa: 2 BCS games, 2 Big Ten Titles, 10 bowl appearanes
Illinois: 2 BCS games, 1 Big Ten title, 3 bowl games
Penn St: 2 Big Ten Titles, 3 BCS games, 10 bowl games
Wisconsin: 2 Big Ten Titles, 2 BCS games, 13 bowl games
Purdue: 1 Big Ten title, 1 BCS game, 10 bowl games
You could make the argument that NW is one of the top 5 programs in the Big Ten (only Michigan, OSU, Penn St, and Wiscy have demonstrably better performance in that span-- Iowa is a legitimately arguable) over the last 15 years. Factor in that they lost a very successful coach in his prime due to cancer and had to turn a untested, extremely young, rookie head coach in a time of program upheaval and that's a substantial body of work. By no means would I call NW "below average".
In the last 15 years [snip] MSU: 0 Rose Bowls, 0 Big Ten titles
Thanks, this will be useful if my coworkers keep up the pro-MSU spew. I knew they'd not accomplished much in the past decade but, wow.
Make that 20 years.
'95 Outright
'96 shared with OSU
'00 shared with Purdue and UM
I sure as hell hope Michigan's luck turns around this year or it's going to get ugly.
Northwestern is the obvious choice since they have way overschieved in the past two years. I guess Michigan St. isn't a bad choice considering the way the lost a few of their games last year, but I would appreciate it if the writer laid it all out on the table and mentioned that the wins over Michigan and Purdue were either in OT or on game winning drives. In the latter MSU came back from down 23-34 in the 4th. I just hate it when writers look at a set of data and pick the points that make their argument while ignoring the ones that go against what they are trying to say, and yes I understand that is precisely what happens in 90% of journalism.
a team with any luck, I think. If they do better than 5-7 any year that is a success. FWIW, Pat Fitzgerald would be my choice for head coach here if Brandon needs to make a selection.
According to this study: http://www.teamspeedkills.com/2010/2/10/1302389/college-footballs-biggest-under NU is the "most over achieving" team of the decade.
The Wildcats from Chicago take this one and it's really not even close. Northwestern had a difference of more than one in a whopping six of the last ten seasons, and they just missed out on a seventh with a +0.99 in 2006. It's popular among some to label these differences as "luck," but if it happens this often, there's something more going on.
Randy Walker and Pat Fitzgerald consistently coaxed an extra win a year out of their teams than the number say they should have been able to, a sure sign of good coaching. When it comes to getting the most out of what you've got, Northwestern wins that contest easily.
However, even assuming continued "luck" Northwestern loses two starting safeties, a corner, and Corey Wooten, so the defense may be a disaster this year. The offense on the other hand returns the entire line, and seems to me to have reached a kind of Texas Tech level of producing big numbers no matter which unheralded QB steps in. Forecast: shootouts, a step back in terms of wins, but an upset or two along the way.
PS: I've said it many times before: Fitzgerald will never willingly leave Northwestern.
Thank you. I can't believe all the knuckleheads who think he's a realistic possibility to replace RR if doom happens.
Guys leave jobs like Northwestern for greener pastures all the time, even when the school is their alma mater. Coaches always say they love their current job. I don't know what is going on in Pat Fitzgerald's mind and neither do you Don. Maybe he is purple for life. Maybe he wants a chance to win a national championship. I just know he is a damn good coach. And anyone filling a first tier college coaching job should at least inquire, don't you think?
USC's luck ran out last year, with young players not being up to snuff and a few losses, as well as being in the sights of the NCAA.
Stanford's Luck ran USC out last year...
Ohio State University. I'm detecting cracks in the armor. Not unlike the late Carr years. I think in today's game it is hard to keep something going for more than 10 years. There is so much money and celebrity nowadays that I think coaches get a bit complacent after a good run and need new challenges. Leaving out Paterno (the ultimate outlier) and maybe Mack Brown, I think there are a bunch of veteran coaches with programs beginning to slide. I've mentioned Tressel, but watch Richt at Georgia and Pinckel at Missouri and Stoops at Oklahoma.
Dude, they are a legit MNC contender this year and in 2011. The only crack in the armor I see in OSU's program is that Tress is 58 or 59 (IIRC) and there is some thought that he may hang 'em up at the end of his current contract in 2013.
I would be very interested to read a detailed response from you regarding your viewpoint on OSU's vulnerability, because, quite frankly, I just can't see it.
Sorry if this came off sort of "dick-ish", but I think this might be a case of you seeing what you want to see through a maize-and-blue prism.
OSU's draft production this year? Four players - one 4th rounder (Gibson) and three 7th rounders (Spitler, Worthington, Coleman). That's pretty paltry for OSU.
I would argue that is what is so scary. The won the Rose Bowl with a QB still adjusting to being a college starter and the only lose a handful of low round NFL picks. If you start getting consecutive years without any high draft picks, then that probably speaks to a decline in the quality of players leaving your school, but I don't think one year is enough to draw any conclusions on.
potential though, does it?
Perhaps all of their good players are young or decided to return for a MNC run in 2010? And shouldn't we be scared that OSU went 11-2 with such a "weak" senior class from last year?
Well, that senior class wasn't that weak. Just because they weren't high draft prospects does not mean they weren't solid college football players. And any senior class that has 4 guys drafted is a good class, regardless of where they were drafted.
guys like Heyward, Chekwa could have gone early. Certainly Heyward would have gone in the earlier rounds. Chekwa, who knows, given what happened to D. Warren, but he was projected as a draftable CB. J. Boren (without the transfer) would have been in that class as well, though who knows if he would have played right away had he gone to OSU as a freshman. Anyway, it's not like they lacked NFL-ready talent on the roster last year.
It doesn't necessarily speak to their future potential, but it could be considered a chink in their armor. I expect OSU to produce at least one player higher than a 4th round pick every year.
FWIW, I'm not saying they're going to slide. I'm just offering up evidence that could be used.
The fact the Pryor is overhyped. The defense carries that team and they did lose a couple starters. So yeah, they may have a chink in their armor. Its definitely possible that they will lose a couple more games this year.
The likelihood of OSU winning fewer than 10 games this year is about the same as UM's chance of winning more than 10 this year. I agree with your general premise, but you know what they say about generalizations. Besides, this year's Buckeyes are likely to be better than last year or the year before. I'm not sure to what "cracks" you're referring.
They make a general out of you and me?
But isn't what they say about generalizations also a generalization?
generally speaking, yes.
At worst, I'd see OSU having a moderately disappointing season like 2009 - 10-3. Sad to say, 12-1 is more likely than 10-3 for them just based on the returning starters and talent.
As for luck running out, I'm guessing 8-9 wins for Penn State - think the Morelli years, except with an inferior quarterback. I can't rule out a suprise title run, but it's exceedingly unlikely, and PSU fans should take off the something-colored glasses (white-colored?).
FWIW, I think our (Michigan's) luck is turning. You can't get much unluckier than us over the past two years, other than every player on our team being diagnosed with cholera on the eve of the UConn game.
Miami's trajectory is similar to ours:
Most people won't like me saying this, but I really like Miami this year (and last.) They remind me a lot of our team in that they are young, have had some defections, and have a stellar offensive lineup. They haven't won like they're used to recently, but a lot of those L's came from youth. I also really like Jacory Harris as a QB - I watched them play a lot last year and can see why Shannon was so favorable to him over Marve. Him and his receivers have great rhythm and chemistry.
I see their trajectory being much like ours - this is the year for them and next year will be our year.
They finished 9-4 with a Bowl Loss in a pretty tough schedule, which is pretty acheivable for us this year. Heck, I'd be happy with 9-4 this year as an appetizer to a 20111 national championship season,
I'm not willing to wait that long for a NC, sorry.
Agreed. Eighteen-thousand years is too long!
If Rich Rod can't get it done by 20090, fire his ass.
You're not allowing enough time for players to learn his system.
way about Miami as being on a kind of on a similar path as UofM, playing a lot of young young guys the last couple of years, and I think you're right they're a year ahead of us.
Desmond Howard was talking about Miami in 2008 (on Game Day when they played Florida IIRC) back when guys like Shane Spence were playing as true freshman. He made the prediciton then that this year, if kids stayed healthy and progressed, they would be pretty lethal and to look out for a NC run. Desmond's never wrong, is he?
Only when he wears black and gold on the day we play Purdue.
You can't say things like that about Michigan and cholera on this board! People are gonna think that is a Rabacked predicton and start freaking out! WHERE IS MY PANIC BUTTON!! IT WAS JUST HERE FOR CHRIST'S SAKE!!! HELP ME FIND IT!!!!!
Sarcastic post has been removed due to fervent negging.
Way to stick to your guns.
Alas, I suppose the "pushing peoples buttons" sarcasm must wait until I can afford the occasional -1 without it interrupting my ability to use features of the site. I'm still to much of a NOOB.
I think The Mathlete has already illustrated definatively that Northwestern has been one of the luckiest teams of the past couple of seasons, where we have had less than our share. Here's hoping that we improve in most of our metrics this season.
http://mgoblog.com/diaries/luckiest-teams-2009-updated-michigan-2008
I think the writer picked the wrong team from Michigan as its "luck is turning" team. I think this will be a quantum leap year for UM. As for some of the others mentioned:
MSU: Right where they belong. Another 6-7 or 7-6 season sounds about right. Also, there is a chance that last year's obvious rift concerning the Frathouse Beatdown will cause a collapse in the chemistry of the team. In that case, they are "luck running out in a big way."
OSU: Luck could run out there, but they will more than likely win 10 again unless Pryor is injured. But there is no way they will win the MNC, as so many of their fans think. What Tressel is doing to Pryor in his offense is like putting a restrictor plate on a Sprint Cup car in a race that doesn't require them. In a related development, I saw a nice fan article on why Pryor's "improvement" in the Rose Bowl is a mirage. Sorry, no link.
Iowa: This team is a lot more beatable than a lot think, and they could easily lose to Michigan this year.
PSU: I agree with the commenter here. They don't have much at QB yet, and it could cost them in crucial games.
AFAIC , the Big Ten is only a year away from regaining Big Three/little eight status. If PSU and Iowa do turn out to be "luck running out" teams this year, it will make OSU's road to the Rose Bowl that much easier. But I still think they will lose to someone they shouldn't, and this could be the year that Michigan turns the "streak" back around.
I can't wait for September to be here.
Not to plug my own stuff, but I wrote an article on that topic (re: Pryor's Rose Bowl performance): http://holdintherope.blogspot.com/2010/05/terrelle-pryor-2010-rose-bowl.html
Perhaps you were referring to that?
Penn State will have some struggles early on in the season; however, I think they will be a decent time by the end of the year. Iowa honestly might be better, but their record might not end up reflecting that. Wisconsin will be Wisconsin and State will be State. Unfortunately, I think OSU has a legitimate shot at having a shot at another BCS title this year. Hopefully this is the final year of OSU being head and shoulders above the rest of the Big Ten.
Florida, I got a feeling your whole family is going down. But for now, I gotta study. Seriously though. they lost the messiah.
now that they've hired Kiffen. There's no program I despise more across the country than USC, and I admit the beatdowns we've suffered in our last two games against them is a big part of it. I'd rather listen to Across the Field or the ND fight song than that damn USC band.
the mind numbing monotony of that the march they play after every fricking first down. Act like you've been there before, pep band! C'mon.
I'm not bitter about the losses they put on us in those Rose Bowls. The Navarre-led team in 03-04 was simply not as talented as SC. The 06-07 team was as talented, I thought, but the Michigan coaching staff had no answer when SC decided to throw it on every single down in the 2nd half. Annoying.
My hatred (read "jealousy") is more because SC has been such a machine on the recruiting trail (and typically on the field) than anything else. Time for some wealth redistribution.