2-point conversion rates in expected situations
In the Indiana game column, Brian appears to be stating that 2-point conversions have a 47% chance of success. That's a little higher than I thought it was (I had read that it was around 42-43%), but regardless, I'm curious to know if there is any data out there for 2-point attempts that are a surprise to the defense (i.e., the swinging gate attempts that teams like Oregon like to run) compared to the conventional ones, where the offense lines up normally so the defense knows it's coming. I would assume that the conventional rate is lower than the surprise ones (it seems like Oregon always converts on those swinging-gate tries), but I'd be curious to see what the numbers actually say.
Purely anecdotally, it seems to me like teams fail significantly more than they succeed on conventional attempts. Is the conversion rate of 40-whatever percent being inflated by those swinging-gate attempts? If the numbers on conventional attempts are significantly lower than surprise attempts, maybe coaches are going for 2 (conventionally) too often - or maybe the swinging gate is underused.
October 21st, 2013 at 8:51 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 9:02 PM ^
I mean it's a surprise in the sense that the defense is caught off-guard by not having enough men there in position. The defense does not know a 2-point try is going to be attempted in that case, whereas it obviously does if the offense just lines up and runs a play.
October 21st, 2013 at 10:25 PM ^
October 21st, 2013 at 9:25 PM ^
http://fs.ncaa.org/Docs/stats/football_records/2013/fbs.pdf
Page 123. It varies from year to year. For 2012, there were 108 makes on 261 attempts - 41.4%.
Interestingly on page 122 - statistically speaking you are more likely to make a 50 yard FG in college than a 2 point conversion attempt (though the FG number has a larger problem with selection bias).
October 21st, 2013 at 9:44 PM ^
Out of curiousity, I'm wondering how many of the 200 or so 2-pt attempts per year are from muffed holds/snaps on the 5000+ PAT attempts.