The 12 team playoff - How it might have looked this season - thoughts and conversation.
As we all know - the CFP format expands to a twelve (12) team format next season. My view has been an 8 team structure would have been preferable - however, my view doesn't mean anything - and, the system is - as it is. In the 12 team format - a few teams that played in their CCG and lost - would be seeded "5 through 12" for the CFP. In this scenario - two CCG losers made it in. And, no team reached the 12 team CFP with more than two losses.
So, what would a twelve team format looked like this season? I viewed the CFP rankings after the CCG weekend - and, came up with the following. Because of the G5 presense (Liberty, this season) - the team that was "left out" was Oklahoma which was ranked 12th.
By conference - the participation would have been as follows. I think the conference seeding should be such that two conference teams don't meet each other until "as late" in the CFP schedule as possible. So - you could have an "all B1G" or "all SEC" final based on which teams win.
- G5 - one team - Liberty
- ACC - one team - FSU
- Big 12 - one team - Texas
- Pac 12 - two teams - Washington and Oregon
- B1G - three teams - Michigan, OSU, and Penn State
- SEC - four teams - Bama, Georgia, Ole Miss, and Mizzou
IMO - the P5 CCGs are essentially Week 0 of the CFP. Two conferences - the Pac 12 and SEC would place both teams in.
- Oregon vs Washington - both in the CFP
- Georgia vs Bama - both in the CFP
- Louisville vs FSU - FSU in the CFP
- Texas vs Oklahoma State - Texas in the CFP
- Michigan vs Iowa - Michigan in the CFP
In week one of the CFP - on campus games - seeds 5 through 12
- Liberty (12) at FSU (5)
- Penn State (11) at Georgia (6)
- Ole Miss (10) at Ohio State (7)
- Mizzou (9) at Oregon (8)
Week two - the quarterfinals - at major bowl sites - all P5 conferences are represented. And - each "half" of the bracket has teams from four different P5 conferences.
- Michigan (1) vs Oregon (8)
- Bama (4) vs FSU (5)
- Washington (2) vs Ohio State (7)
- Texas (3) vs Georgia (6)
Week three - the semifinals: again, four different P5 conferences are represented.
- Michigan (1) vs Bama (4)
- Washington (2) vs Texas (3)
And, week four - the final
- Michigan (1) vs Washington (2)
I will just enjoy the "NC hangover" for about seven more months - and, really get focused on the '24 season in mid August when tailgate planning for the opener begins.
What do you think of the 12 team format? Are there things you're hoping the CFP Selection Committee will - or won't - do? If so, what are they?
Enjoy being a fan of the National Championship team. Go Blue!
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:31 PM ^
If the 12 team existed this season the final four would have been:
1. Michigan - Oregon game would not have been a gimmie
4. Alabama - Beats FSU easily w/out Travis
6. UGA - Blasts PSU and beats Texas handily
7. OSU - Beat Washington probably about as comfortably as Michigan
Semifinal 1 is Michigan/Bama and we obviously win and Semifinal 2 is a war between UGA/OSU and the title game is probably Mich/UGA
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:13 PM ^
A) agree (though I think M-Ore would have been pretty much the same as M-UW turned out to be)
B) that would have been an incredible playoff (despite UW-TX being a classic)
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:54 PM ^
UM was the most consistent team all year, but very happy we didn't have to play UGA.
We played rather poorly on offense against Bama, and I think UGA could have beat us that day.
My thoughts are, it's now really even more like the NFL, where you make the playoff and hope to be peaking and healthy at the right time.
January 22nd, 2024 at 4:34 PM ^
I think I agree with you on 1 out of 4.. :) Michigan vs Oregon is, of course, not a gimme. I think Michigan wins, but gimme? No.
I think FSU/Alabama with FSU's second string guy is a very serious game. Florida State had a great D, and would have made life very hard for Alabama to score much. This might have been 14-9 FSU.
I didn't see Georgia "blast" much of anyone, and IMO, Penn States defense is way too good for that. I think Georgia wins because Penn State can't score enough. But...21-13 is not "blast".
The one I think you're just crazy wrong on is Washington/OSU. I just don't think Ohio State had enough offense to win "comfortably" or even at all against Washington. OSU is a good defensive team, but I don't think they shut down UW like we did. I think 31-17 Washington.
All in all, I think some of those non-top 4 teams had a real chance to be in at the end, especially Georgia, FSU, and Penn State. Oregon is in there, but runs up against the Michigan buzz saw defense.
January 22nd, 2024 at 5:21 PM ^
4. Alabama - Beats FSU easily w/out Travis
I don't think this matchup would happen. In a 12-team playoff there would have been no reason to drop FSU. It was done to accommodate the SEC, which wouldn't be an issue here.
As one of the three undefeated P5 teams, they would have been #3. Texas would have been #4 and Bama #5.
January 22nd, 2024 at 8:00 PM ^
This touches upon a really important consideration - how would teams have been seeded by the committee if they knew a 12-team playoff was happening?
This year would have worked out well as the conferences were well dispersed, avoiding potential rematches.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:34 PM ^
The "first four out" this year would have made a really tough bracket by itself:
FSU
UGA
OSU
Oregon
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:35 PM ^
- Ole Miss (10) at Ohio State (7)
Ah, yes. The NIL Tampering Bowl Presented By Uncle T and Connor Stallions!
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:37 PM ^
I wonder if Catapult woud have tried be be a sponsor as well...
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:35 PM ^
Yeah, I would have worried much more about playing Oregon in such a scenario. Fortunately, Oregon made this impossible in the Pac-12 Championship game, and by some extension in the now-defunct four-team format.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:11 PM ^
I think the media pushed Oregon so much all season long we all kind of fell for it. Losing to Washington 2x is no fluke. Washington is a much better team and in the case we stuffed them in a locker. Maybe Oregon doesnt go straight 1st quarter coma but I think it ends close to the same way. Maybe OSU 22ish.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:29 PM ^
Oregon outplayed Washington in their first matchup. They would have won with some slightly less aggressive red zone play calling (or better red zone execution). If I remember correctly, they had three separate red zone trips that ended inside the ten yard line that resulted in no points.
Washington thoroughly outplayed them the second time, but not the first.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:54 PM ^
U W beat them twice. Why some of you want to keep twisting yourself into believing Oregon was better baffles me.
In fact, U W was so obviously a step down from Alabama in my eyes, except for Penix, I wasn't really even worried about that game by midway through the 2nd quarter. And again, that team beat Oregon. Twice.
January 22nd, 2024 at 6:50 PM ^
Did you watch the first Oregon/Washington game? I did. Oregon looked the better team.
They had 25% more all purpose yardage, had more passing and rushing yards, more first downs, more time of possession, fewer turnovers, better third down conversion rate... They were superior in every facet of the game.
They didn't look as good in the second matchup, but they were the better team statistically and by the eye test in the first game. That's why they were favored by almost everyone going into the PAC 12 title game - because anyone who watched the first matchup or paid attention to how the two teams performed down the stretch should have expected an Oregon victory.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:45 PM ^
Did they have less turnovers once you factor in missing four 4th down conversions? That’s why they lost. Punting is winning, analytics is for losing to Washington.
Also, which do you think gives a better representation of a team’s true quality- a game at the beginning of the year or the end? Would you have bet on Texas to beat Bama at the end of the year?
January 23rd, 2024 at 9:57 AM ^
Yes, failed fourth down conversions were the difference in the game. I guess those are also turnovers. But because several of them were in the red zone and would have been chip shot field goals, I put the blame more on the coach than on the team, as the margin of victory was only three points. In his post game press conference, Dan laning said he fucked up and took all the blame on himself. He said he regretted his decisions and would employ different strategies in the future. Maybe that's just what college coaches are supposed to say, but it seemed spot on in this case.
And yes, late games should be more heavily weighted than early games... But going into the PAC12 title game, Oregon looked to be playing better ball than Washington. Their last couple of games before that were much more convincing. Washington struggled a lot down the stretch, even if they won all their games, while Oregon looked dominant. Obviously they lost the final. Washington earned it. But I still would have put money on Oregon if I was betting, and I would do the same next year in a similar situation. At the very least, it's really hard to beat the same team twice.
Would I have bet on Texas over Alabama at the end of the season? Probably not after they beat Georgia. But the game before the SEC championship was Alabama vs an Auburn team that was .500 going into the game. Yes, that's a heated rivalry, but Alabama only won by scoring an improbable and likely unrepeatable last second hail Mary touchdown on fourth and thirty. If the Texas game had come right after the iron bowl, I for sure would have bet on Texas to win.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:57 PM ^
Much of the narrative was between the 2 losses Oregon took with the second being much more emphatic. I think we recycle the ESPN eye test a bit too much around here even when we dont know it. The blogs less popular but still vocal crowd backing the "Undefeated FSU doesnt deserve a shot" eating up the ESPN/SEC rhetoric is a great example. Hell Texas was in only because they specifically beat Bama and became a package deal. They beat Oregon instead and go on to be 12-1 and they are behind FSU.
January 22nd, 2024 at 6:57 PM ^
I don't disagree. You have to win the games to get to the playoff. Oregon had two losses, Washington was undefeated. Obviously Washington deserved to be there, earned it, and proved they were the better team. I think Michigan would have unquestionably beaten Oregon, and I'm not sure Oregon would have been as competitive against Texas as Washington was. Aside from FSU, the deserving teams were the ones that made the playoffs. I don't think there is any case to be made that Oregon should have been there. I'm just pointing out that Oregon played a hell of a game against Washington in October, and it's a fluke that they lost it, because the statistics show they should have won.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:41 PM ^
If I were in a position to choose an outcome for 2024, I think I'm 100% sold on losing to NILU ohio state in the regular season only to ruin their 13 million dollar season in the playoff. As people have lamented already, beating them in the regular season only changes their playoff seed now.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:08 PM ^
Thing is, in the 18-team Big Ten I don't think it's given that both teams will make the playoff. Of the 5 top15 teams to end last year, UW looks very much to be in a "year 1" and PSU's only other top opponent is OSU. Oregon, OSU and UM all play each other. It's not crazy to think there are 4 1-loss teams sitting atop the Big Ten standings, with tiebreakers deciding who goes to the title game and who goes to the playoff.
Besides, beating OSU in C-bus next year really would break them. Next year feels like THE YEAR to them. After the game they may say "we still have all these goals" but they looked pretty broken in the Cotton on NYD - last year they ddi recover nicely for the CFP. But beating them in C-Bus just offers such an opportunity to end their era with finality. It's not our year, and we beat them in their year - just perfect.
January 22nd, 2024 at 4:43 PM ^
I'm really struggling to envision Michigan not having 2 losses at the end of the season next year. Out of Oregon, Texas, OSU (road) (all top 15 teams at worst), plus USC and Washington (on the road)...Losing 2 of those 5 is a pretty good outcome for a team that's going to struggle to score points. The Texas game is so dang early that I don't see how we have an offense, plus having to adjust to a new defensive coordinator who might not actually come directly from the Ravens.
I'd be thrilled with 10-2 in the regular season as it looks right now..
Obviously if JH is back, he's pulled off the miracles before, so..
Rob
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:21 PM ^
10-2 is the ceiling IMO.
January 22nd, 2024 at 9:48 PM ^
10-2 with that schedule will probably make the playoffs. 9-3 won’t.
January 23rd, 2024 at 2:03 PM ^
10-2 - if one of the losses is Texas - may mean a trip to Indy
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:42 PM ^
The thought have having to vanquish Ohio 3 times in a season:
Regular Season
B1G Championship
NCAA Playoff
Has tremendous upside but is it worth the risk of winning first two and losing in the Finals of a playoff?
I am not a gambler (though I will wager) so I do not like the latter possibility.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:58 PM ^
I think if you win the first 2, they will be left out, to specifically avoid that situation. But you never know ...
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:18 PM ^
Oregon would have gotten an invite this season even though Washington beat them twice.
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:59 PM ^
If those are OSU's only 2 losses (or M's if roles are reversed), I don't see them getting left out of a 12 team playoff where the only 2 losses are to a top 5 team.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:08 PM ^
If you are CFP committe you do everything to make Georgia/Bama or OSU/UM only be a thing in the final.
If OSU/UM made it through that gauntlet then I dont think anyone would have issues with it. Its honestly a chance in a thousand unless you read MGBLOG then its a 50/50.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:33 PM ^
The hockey team repeatedly got screwed by a similar scenario back in the nineties. There were at least two seasons where they had an early round NCAA tournament rematch with an opponent that they beat in the ccha tournament and won the regular season series against.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:53 PM ^
IMO, in a 12 team CFP this year, FSU likely stays at #4 since their inclusion wouldn't exclude Alabama. Also there's a good chance that OSU makes it in as high as #5 or #6.
However, no matter what folks say the conference CGs ARE NOT a first round of the CFP or recognized as such by the CFP.
So I believe that a UGA going into this SECCG as #1 (or Michigan as #2 playing Iowa) would be very likely to announce before that (meaningless) game that they'd be intentionally sitting key starters or other banged up guys to prepare for the CFP. Strategically it makes a ton of sense. One, obviously keeps team healthy for a CFP run. But it essentially inoculates you from the committee knocking you out from the top 4 with a close loss precisely because of the politics of publicly acknowledeing the supremacy of all things CFP.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:04 PM ^
#1 Georgia fell to #6 in the CFP after a championship loss. Im confused because people keep saying this. Why exactly would you take a chance to give up a bye week? I honestly dont think they will reward you for "Eh we didnt try to win" in fact I can see the CFP committee sending a loud message about taking games off. Im not sure people are thinking this through.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:25 PM ^
I personally don't trust the CFP to not fall prey to the sort of politicing and sole focus on CFP over CGs I see as inevitable.
But I l do love the speculation and hearing other ideas. However, I'm still stubborn enough to say that maybe we won't see sitting out CGs in '24, but when a top favorite team or two loses key players to injury in that year's CGs, IMO we will see players and teams doing the NFL thing and resting starters in '25.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:27 PM ^
Remember that the top 4 seeds--the byes--are all reserved for teams that won CCGs. The 4 best Conference Champions of the 9 conferences (there are only 9 now, right?) will be seeds #1, #2, #3 and #4. The 5th and 6th best CCG winners are also guaranteed to be in the #5 to #12 seed group--almost certainly as #11 and #12.
So if you play your "junior varsity" in the CCG, that just means you have to win 4 more games to win the CFP, instead of 3.
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:03 PM ^
Shit I forgot about that. Yeah aint nobody sitting out. Ill still go back to a team falling behind two teams in a win (FSU) and another falling 5 places in a loss. Good luck playing with that kind of fire.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:54 PM ^
The best thing about the 12 team playoff is the possibility of an Ole Miss at OSU in December, or whenever they get played late in the year.
Better yet, any of those "warm weather" schools playing at the "cold weather" school. Maybe Georgia at Michigan, or Miami at Penn St, somebody at a Wisconsin potentially in the future.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^
Ill say a warm weather team stepping on a frozen field will happen as much as a NCAA investigator stepping on a top 5 SEC programs campus. Ah ah ah not so fast Florida/Tennessee.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:24 PM ^
I seriously think the committee would make sure the rankings allow as few Up North games as possibly. They manipulate so many other things right now, this will just become another.
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:05 PM ^
Agreed. Like our last 37 of 38 bowl games being played in the SEC footprint vs SEC teams. Bring you asses up to a random Big Ten stadium for 93% of your bowl games and see how the SEC does.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:55 PM ^
I think OSU would have beat Washington. Not like we did, but won the game. OSU was arguably the best opponent we faced.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:59 PM ^
I agree. This is why it's funny they cased off McCord. He would likely have led them to a win next year at home. Now, they are rolling the dice. In the meta-game Brian always talks about, sometimes you overreact and make the wrong move.
January 22nd, 2024 at 3:06 PM ^
OSU has such a low threshold for pain that in a year where they were probably a top 4 team they still chased off their QB because he wasn't "good enough". Hearing OSU fans further expound on why 'no really he wasn't good enough' shows how little bad football they've ever seen in Columbus
god willing their band of mercenaries will start turning out the same as the band of mercenaries in College Station. I'm not sure Ryan Day has the leadership to control a locker room full of guys just there because of the paycheck. That's managing an NFL locker room. Can you picture Ryan Day trying to lead a bunch of professionals? Nope
January 22nd, 2024 at 4:09 PM ^
I think OSU is dangerous next year, and did an admirable job of bringing back some stars...AND, I feel like their additions didn't give them the missing pieces to their puzzle. Maybe I'm overrating McCord but it seems destined to be a downgrade at QB unless whomever takes the role is JJ level. Losing MHJ was unavoidable, keeping Egbuka was a major coup, but I'd be surprised if their passing game is as productive next year. Their OL was what held them back against Michigan, and I know they fired their OL coach, and have a nice addition in the backfield. I'm cautiously skeptical of Bill O'Brien gelling with Day - it feels a bit like a Gattis/Harbaugh marriage.
Their defense will be legit. But it looks like their O may take a step back. As long as they can beat everyone but like Oregon before the game, they'll be ready. Ryan Day hasn't had trouble taking care of lesser opponents. But yea, I think they could just shatter if something goes wrong in Happy Valley or somewhere else - and especially in The Game.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:01 PM ^
I never felt like Michigan was really threatened by Ohio State. They were seriously threatened by Alabama, however. Does that make Bama "better?" Not sure. But it certainly looked and felt like a more physically and mentally challenging game.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:10 PM ^
And JJ was still obviously gimpy for OSU and we lost our best CB and OL for the 2nd half.
I think the score reflects those things, but also if we can get a 1st down late in the 4th because Zinter was still in, then we "only" win by 3. But there's also no last second sphincter tightening drive by OSU with a chance to win it.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:35 PM ^
I don't know how you can say that. We're like one toss up to MHJr from losing that game at the end. OSU played us very tight on the road. Bama played us very tight in a neutral field.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:41 PM ^
You're right, of course. I'm not hating on OSU here. I mean, I am, but not like that. It was a close game.
I don't know. I can only speak for myself and say that I did not feel threatened by OSU one time after the Johnson pick. I did feel threatened while watching them play 2.85 full quarters of scoreless football against Bama.
January 22nd, 2024 at 4:06 PM ^
OSU was down 6 driving to win the game (or take a 1 point lead with a minute or so to go). How were they never threatening to win?
JJ led a late TD-scoring drive against Bama to send it to OT, definitely threatening no doubt. But those bowl games are a totally different story. 4 weeks for each to to heal up and scheme new things, a totally different comparison to playing a week after your last game.
January 22nd, 2024 at 1:59 PM ^
Ive heard a lot of "8 teams seems like the sweet spot" and I would agree if it wasnt for the fact that we lose 4 on campus games. This will be my favorite part of the playoff. And also anything that gets us farther away from ESPN/SEC deciding with their GD eye test the better.
ESPN thinks (INSERT SEC TEAM HERE) is so much better? Great prove it on the field no more eye test bullshit.
January 22nd, 2024 at 2:32 PM ^
I completely understand why folks like on-campus games in the playoffs but I, personally, hate them. When you are deciding the national champion, I want the playing field to be as level as possible, thus I am opposed to having one team get the massive advantage of playing at home.
Additionally, I think in most years there are only about 5-6 teams who could legitimately make a viable claim to be the "best team" in the nation. This year may have been an exception as maybe 8 teams could have made a reasonable argument. Thus, I think 8 teams would have been the correct number.
EDIT: I forgot to mention vis a vis the "fairness" point that I hate having teams get "byes" as well. I really hate the 12 team format.