10 man basketball rotation?
So at this point it’s clear that Barnes, Tschetter, and Jace will not be part of the rotation, which leaves 10 players with the return of Zeb (also when Diabate is healthy). Could we see a 10 man rotation? It’s not common, but some schools do it. MSU played 11 last year. Here are my thoughts.
PG: There is a healthy debate about Jones vs Frankie. Frankie has tons of potential but probably isn’t quite ready to take over the spot completely. We have all probably been a little harsh on Jones as he is adjusting to this level. His stats across the board are better than Frankie’s, including assist-turnover ratio. With that being said, I think Jones should be closer to splitting time with Frankie and not playing 30 minutes a game. Juwan will probably play both and go with whoever is playing better at the time.
Minutes: Jones 22 Collins 16 Brooks 2
SG: This is Eli’s spot and we need him, but we have to give him rest. He will never last the season playing 36 minutes a game.
Minutes: Brooks 30 Bufkin 5 Zeb 5
SF: Same situation here. Houstan is the man but needs to play a reasonable amount of minutes. We have some versatile players like Zeb, Bufkin and Williams that can slide into this spot for a few minutes.
Minutes: Houstan 30 Zeb 4 Bufkin 4 Williams 2
PF: Should be Diabate when he is healthy but he will also be the center when Hunter is off the court. Johns and Williams provide spark off the bench.
Minutes: Diabate 14 Johns 14 Williams 12
Center:
Minutes: Dickinson 30 Diabate 10
Totals:
Eli 32
Dickinson 30
Houstan 30
Diabate 24
Jones 22
BENCH:
Collins 16
Johns 14
Williams 14
Zeb 9
Bufkin 9
Is this reasonable? I like the idea of a deep team and I have a hard time thinking we couldn’t use the length of Zeb and the scoring ability of Bufkin so I don’t think either should be left out of the rotation. Of course it’s up to the staff to make all this work but I think it could.
December 8th, 2021 at 10:57 AM ^
Can't Zeb play PG ? I think he should be starting.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:07 AM ^
i dont know but at times last night, NOBODY WAS PLAYING PG. I know its nebraska, but against better teams, having johns and hunter bringing the ball up - go look, it happened 2x, with not a single guard on the screen - is bad.
Another time, johns brought it up and was looking to offload and none of the guards came to get it.
Frankie plays with great energy but is still learning/figuring things out. I still - unpopularly - like him off the bench because he brings great energy and it keeps the pressure off a true freshman who is not a 1 and done type. Maybe as we get further they swap, but right now, I think its a good balance.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:10 AM ^
It's how they move into position to score once whoever gets the ball across the timeline that's the issue. The bigger guys handle the ball so much better than they used to--viz. the NBA. Juwan clearly does not have a problem with it when the other team is not pressing.
December 8th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^
Big men bringing the ball up the floor does not mean no one is playing PG. This isn't 1985.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:01 PM ^
Modern basketball positions are less about what a guy does on offense than who a guy guards on defense.
The "PG" needs to be able to guard an opposing player that is smallish/quickish, usually brings the ball up and is primarily a creator (for himself and/or others).
Doesn't really matter if you have your biggest guy bring the ball up. You need a guy that can guard Verge-types. Unfortunately, neither Jones nor Collins had much success defending last night but that's what defines their role even moreso than bringing the ball up themselves.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
Based on what exactly?
December 8th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^
Zeb can't shoot well enough yet, but hopefully that improves; is not an elite ball-handler. I was shocked by T Will's shooting last night, hope that can continue to some extent. O/W, he can't ball-handle and is too short to play major minutes at the 4 against BIG teams.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:08 AM ^
I have laughed a little the last two seasons as fans expressed unhappiness with the rotation, honing their player hierarchies in post after post. Dylan at UMhoops got upset that Juwan was playing Austin Davis too much and there was heated back and forth between posters for a while last season. It undermined perceptions of Juwan's ability that he kept playing that guy! The stats dictated this and that, you don't know anything about hoops, etc. . .
And Juwan stubbornly kept playing all kinds of guys, coaxing better and better from them when the stats said they sucked, shouldn't be in, etc.
All of which underlines that there's a difference between coaching and armchair analysis, even if it's fancy stats. The coach--who after all spends 100s of hours more with the players than any fan can--has the job of seeing what his players can do, what they're capable of. It's not his job to be limited by what they've done to date.
I enjoyed Juwan playing so many guys last night, getting so much out of Brandon Johns, Jr. when just about everybody had written him off for good (this time), and DeVante Jones, finally looking like he was getting it. . .
Suddenly Dickinson is hitting threes and stretching the court with passing from high and low; Houstan is asserting himself with real boldness; we have three strong options at the four, emerging players of promise at guard, Zeb to generate energy when The Professor needs a blow.
There's a long way to go, but I just love Juwan's encouragement of the kids, the way he's building the team. Irrespective of fan dictates.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^
This 100%.
I would also add that the vast majority of the people second-guessing Howard here are only thinking short term and not at all about the arc/trajectory of the whole team and where he wants it to be come tournament time at the end of the season. Knowing how certain line-ups play together and how you can apply them to different teams and situations is important and developing all the players to function in those scenarios is absolutely necessary.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:32 PM ^
OF COURSE "there's a difference between coaching and armchair analysis."
Armchair analysis is obviously better. Game watching and blog reading are like a survey, quick glimpses that provide an overall picture, leading to satisfying sweeping judgments.
Meanwhile, a coach is constantly bombarded with data points, making it difficult to understand anything.
P.S. I'd be happy to serve as a consultant. For sufficient remuneration, of course.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
Look at Eli Brooks. Before Coach Howard, I had written him off as unplayable. Now he's one of our best players.
December 9th, 2021 at 5:44 PM ^
Well, wasn't he the Pennsylvania player of the year when he came out? Don't think many people ever thought he was 'unplayable,' TBH. A large portion of kids don't contribute much their freshman year.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
I think you can play a large rotation early in the season when you’re trying to figure out who your guys are but you want to get that down to 8 by the time you’re in the tourney. Good teams aren’t playing more than 8 in March. If you’ve got 10 guys playing late in the season, I think that means you have guys at certain positions you aren’t comfortable playing 35+ minutes in tourney games which is worrying
December 8th, 2021 at 12:43 PM ^
I agree with this for the most part. Playing 10 guys makes sense now as you figure out who are the best players, especially at the PG and SG positions other than Brooks but should taper once this is figured out. However, the fact that Jones, Collins, Bufkin and Zeb are such different players makes me think all of them could find at least spot roles.
Jones: Most potential this year if he can adapt to higher level of play. Needs to improve defense and flow of offense.
Collins: Sparkplug, runs offense well, good defender in general. Needs to improve FT shooting but can't fix "get tall".
Bufkin: Good scorer, TBD beyond that. How fast can he become a high end college player.
Jackson: Probably best defender, particularly against bigger guards. Difficult to judge shooting, point guard ability, etc. due to lack of consistent minutes. Potential to be either elite or not a guy you want playing.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:14 AM ^
I would hate that. As we saw with MSU last year, playing a bunch of average players 5-10 minutes a game does not lead to success.
We had 9 guys play vs SDSU, which was a competitive game unlike Nebraska, and that was with only 3 minutes for Zeb and 7 for Moussa due to illness. I think in reality the starting 5 plus Frankie, Johns and Williams are locked in. Then ideally you can have one of Bufkin/Zeb emerge as a backup 2/3 (ideally Kobe since I don't think Zeb is going to be a long term piece at Michigan), but hopefully that corresponds with a decrease in minutes for either Williams or Johns since we have a log jam at the 4/5 already.
At this point I think you want to see 9 guys playing a game with one guy maybe at 5 or so minutes a game (who it is will vary based on matchup and who's playing well), so functionally more of an 8 man rotation.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
The problem with a big rotation is that it isn't evenly distributed; Brooks is still playing 30 minutes a game (and likely more) while he doesn't really have a natural replacement. At least with Dickinson you've got Diabate and even Johns if they want to go super-small ball. At this point I think figuring out a backcourt rotation that works, even if it's not optimal in terms of positions, should be the goal.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:26 AM ^
As the season goes on I hope your minutes for point go to more Zeb or Frankie and less to Jones. I’d like to put him more in the 9-10 end of the rotation. Bufkin will most likely be in that 9-10 area as well. I absolutely think we will have a baseline 8 but can play 10 without much of a drop off. We are bringing in elite talent and they need to play. Kids aren’t gonna come here and sit 11-13 on the bench for their junior years.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:29 AM ^
I think it'll probably tighten to 9 guys as the season progresses
either Bufkin or Zeb will earn the majority of backup SG minutes at some point I would expect
December 8th, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
Great post, OP. Two issues/comments:
1) A rotation of 10 during the BIG season might seem logical if we had a good split between positions. But there are 5 pure guards listed in this 10. My guess is that in 2022 during tight, competitive BIG games either Jackson or Bufkin will be in the rotation, the other out, bringing the rotations to 9.
2) At this stage, I would prefer to see us go back to Johns starting, Diabate off the bench. Johns looks good if he can get in the flow early, and love having Diabate bring energy off the bench.
Nice to have this problem of so many capable players! Go Blue!!!
December 8th, 2021 at 1:35 PM ^
I agree - great post and insightful follow up.
1. Best case is one of Jackson of Bufkin emerge as a primary rotational player. I think there's a strong possibility of that happening. Kinda liked how Jackson looked last night.
2. I feel like Johns and Williams bring a lot of the same positives to the team. With Johns you can almost see when he has it on any given night. I can see some games where he plays 5-8 minutes. Others where he plays 20.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^
Exactly. This is probably how things get whittled down.
1. Zeb or Bufkin would need to emerge as the third wing/2/3.
2. Johns or Williams would ideally emerge as the consistently better option at the stretch big/4 but right now both are very up and down.
Like MSU last year, if you're playing 10 or 11 and you're not an up-tempo pressing team, you have a problem.
Michigan's biggest problem is that a second guard/first PG hasn't really taken hold of the job. I don't I think Jones and Collins will both get minutes all year but neither are playing great. Ideally one asserts himself and settles in at 30-32 min a game with the other providing backup.
Secondarily Michigan needs a third guard and a third wing (defining Houstan and Diabate as the two established wings) to separate from the pack.
It's early though, need to tinker and let guys seize their spots.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:42 AM ^
Zeb and Kobe are very similar players, I see one of them emerging over the other to soak up the backup 2 and maybe some minutes at the 3. I will say, watching the game in person last night in Lincoln, the athleticism of those two and Frankie absolutely pops in comparison to our starting guards. The potential is there if they can reign it in.
Edit: The two posts above beat me to this exact point.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
eli, HD and houstan are getting many more minutes than that now, unless foul trouble, and we aren't to big ten season yet.
December 8th, 2021 at 11:58 AM ^
If Johns brings what he brought last night he'll be getting a solid 20 minutes.
December 8th, 2021 at 2:33 PM ^
Agree but that's like the biggest IF ever. I really doubt we are going to consistently see high-energy, 20pt games from Johns. I would really love to be wrong about that because he can, maybe more than any other player, raise the ceiling of this team.
December 8th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
Yeah, that's been the IF with Johns for 3+ years.
I'm not sure him hitting his ceiling is what elevates the teams ceiling the most this year though, because Williams and Diabate exist such that the different between them and Johns ceiling isn't huge.
What this team needs most is a PG. Jones playing better (taking care of the ball, playing better defense) or Collins emerging probably raises the ceiling the most because there's a big gap between good PG play and what we've had so far.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:19 PM ^
I think the coaching staff knew they had a PG problem coming into the season which is why they went and got Jones and I think they know Jones is not Smith but haven't figured out what to do about it. There may not be a good answer but rather a choice of various evils.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^
It will be a constantly evolving thing but here's how I see it by the end of the season
PG- Collins 25, Jones 10 , 5 Brooks. This is being optimistic of Jones, Collins has the talent to bump him to the Jaaron Simmons role. Jones' stats looked better last night and it was nice to see him hit a 3 but he doesn't look to be in the same stratosphere as Collins in terms of ballhandling, quickness, or decision-making.
SG- Brooks 30, Bufkin 10.
SF- Houstan 30, Zeb 10. Zeb's offense has a ways to go but he has the athletic ability to fill something like the Chaundee role on D. Not many guys Michigan has that can guard those big shooting guards who can hit pull-ups over them, but Zeb is one.
PF- Diabate 15, Johns 15, Williams 10. This is going to vary depending on who has the hot hand. On nights when Johns is playing with confidence, he can push for 30. On nights when Williams is hot from 3, he can push for more. Most of the time, however, they'll be fighting each other for minutes. Diabate is pretty safe.
C- Dickinson 30, Diabate 10. I could see Diabate taking more minutes from this given his talent, wanting to keep Dickinson fresh, and potential foul trouble.
That gives us the following distribution:
Brooks 35
Dickinson 30
Houstan 30
Diabate 25
Collins 25
Johns 15
Williams 10
Jones 10
Bufkin 10
Zeb 10
Realistically, unless Zeb or Kobe displays enough PG ability to push Jones out of the rotation, those two are likely fighting each other with one guy taking all of the 20 minutes I've allocated to them. (From a talent perspective, I'd prefer the two of them stick and take Jones' minutes).
A similar dynamic likely exists between Johns and Williams, though if Williams continues to shoot like he did yesterday there's a chance he can carve out a role at the 3.
So my distribution underlines that uncertainty. You have a 10-man rotation with 3 guys getting over 30 minutes and 5 guys getting over 25, so it's not that bad. Ideally, Zeb or Kobe takes the Jones minutes and we can slide T-Will to the 3 a bit more.
December 8th, 2021 at 12:22 PM ^
Agree with other posts, there's still evolution and will continue to be, with it funneling down to 7-8 with serious minutes by year's end.
The difference is development, guys who can contribute and continue that contribution to deserve extended minutes. BJJ really is the next man up, who has flashed but hasn't been able to sustain his production, really pulling hard for him bc his emergence changes a lot. T-Will is emerging and could do that too.
I think Houstan and Diabate aren't there yet but pretty confident they will get there by late season, based on what we've seen. Optimistic about Frankie as well but I think he will get more minutes just based on Devante's deficiencies; in other words he will be an improvement but he'll be a legit Big PG next year.
December 8th, 2021 at 1:51 PM ^
I really like the energy Collins brings off the bench, but I dont think he should start until he can make some FTs consistently
I know this is a snowflake 'hot take" but still
December 8th, 2021 at 2:04 PM ^
Not going to happen.
December 8th, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
What is up with Nunez? Was he even on the bench last night? I assumed he would get in at the end when the result was a given?
December 8th, 2021 at 2:34 PM ^
For a team to be tournament ready, I think the rotation likely has to functionally work its way down to 8 or so over the course of the season, and maybe that fluctuates depending on the matchup and situation. The unknown to me at this point is what happens with Jackson, Bufkin, and Collins, which I don't think even Juwan has a good feel for yet and explains the deeper rotation early in the season. The upside of this team is higher if one or two of those guys breaks out and fills a a meaningful part of the rotation (which I think will happen), and then that would ripple across to others.
December 8th, 2021 at 2:36 PM ^
Maybe I’m wrong, but I feel Bufkin may well be getting over 9 minutes come season’s end. This team needs shooters
December 8th, 2021 at 3:40 PM ^
He's a major x-factor, IMO. Has a ton of skill and athleticism. Potential to be a star. Questions for him revolve around the mental aspect of the game and having the physical strength to push for more minutes at this level.
Probably poised for a breakout next year with another year of learning and strength training but it would be a huge bonus if he had a semi breakout at some point this season.
December 8th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
The answer to the two questions posed in the OP are a simple, not open for discussion "No".
That's all.