UM -1 over ND!
Those following my diaries know that I am more than a little interested in the point spreads of these games we follow. And, I have been tracking some of UM's lines for their future games.
It is with great shock that I report UM is being installed as slight favorite in South Bend.
At Carib Sports--the only place where I am registered that I could find where you could bet tonight on Saturday's game--UM is -1. Lets think about this line:
Summer line: ND -3.5
Adjusted line after Week 1: ND -8.5
Actual line of Game Week: UM -1
I have not seen such a turnaround before. Surprisingly (or not so when you really think about it), most of those summer lines stay true to form.....its scary how accurate those are to the actual line months in advance.....anyway, yeah, you'll see a 1 or 2 point swing over the course of the season, but this line movement is unreal. A five point swing after the first week of games. Then, a 9.5 point swing in the other direction after the 2008 ND team unveiled itself.
To me, it seems that the public and oddsmakers remain confused as what to expect out of both of these outfits. We'll see how this line moves as money begins pouring in now that game week is here. I believe we'll see Irish money come in and eventually the line will be ND -1 or -2. Not sure how anybody can expect anything for sure out of either team. But, it is basically the same ND offense vs the same UM defense as last year and that did not go well for ND. UM got 8 sacks last year and come into this game with 9 sacks and as many TFLs in two games. Also, in three seasons, Weis has only generated three leigt TDs against UM's stop troops. Maybe the experts feel people will remember that and to get even money on both sides have to make UM a small favorite? I dont know.
Think about it: There are savvy betters out there with UM +8.5 tickets in their pocket while all other UM backers would have to lay a single point. I am sure Go Blue Toledo is one of those shrewd betters. Just busting your chops, buddy.....lol.
Also, USC is favored by 10.5 over Ohio State, a line shift up from +4.5 when the line first came out in July. In the other important Big 10 OOC Saturday, Wisconsin is -1.5 at Fresno, after opening at Wisco -3.5.
Thoughts?!?!?! Lets hear them.
September 7th, 2008 at 10:38 PM ^
September 7th, 2008 at 11:12 PM ^
September 7th, 2008 at 11:00 PM ^
September 7th, 2008 at 11:08 PM ^
September 7th, 2008 at 11:28 PM ^
I really think that UM that should beat ND - but strange things always seem to happen in South Bend (the 2002 Carlyle Holiday phantom touchdown and the 2004 How did we lose to Tryone Willingham again game come to mind).
You never know what can happen in South Bend with all the echos being awakened and returning to glory happening.
We have a better coaching staff, a better defense and I think our offense at this point is time is probably equivalent to NDs (I think we have a better run game but the EMU looked alright throwing a deep ball) - based I this I think we should win.
Also - I'd say bet the house on USC (especially if Beanie can't go) - they have consistently destroyed non-conference competition under Carroll.
September 7th, 2008 at 11:32 PM ^
....because each of our stud WRs--Edwards, Breston and Avant--lost a fumble during a second half collapse. Henne's first road game as a starter. I mean what could possibly go wrong in Sheridan and/or Threet's first start in South Bend?!?!
Effing Echoes. Strange things have been happening to us in this entire series with ND. And, we'll get a chance to see each one again on ESPN Classic throughout the week. On a related note, I may end up drinking more than usual this week.
How come these guys never show, say, the 1985 game? It was a signature game of your namesake!
I am officially off any possible OSU bet. Thanks for piping up.....still lamenting that I did not heed your warnings for weeks about that Rose Bowl.
September 7th, 2008 at 11:48 PM ^
September 7th, 2008 at 11:58 PM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 9:55 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 12:32 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 7:09 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 9:44 AM ^
I have to agree with you cbus. I watched that game, their O-Line is awful. Almost as bad as ours. I think this game could be 0-0 going into the 4th quarter.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:42 PM ^
Did any of you fools watch the ND game? If the SDSU doesnt fumble the ball into the end zone from one inch away then they would have been up two scores and had a death grip on the game... instead ND caught a break and rode ( is rode a word?) the momentum down the field to a victory. SDSU lost the CAL FUCKING POLY in the opening week! They are in the bottom 10 of D-1A schools.
Again I found myself screaming at the TV during the Michigan game, "RUN THE FUCKING BALL." We cant pass, lets just face it... So lets put in two TE's and two RB's and run. Even if it is out of the shotgun it will still be more effective than they shitty pass game we have been trying. And give Minor some carries, he is the only one that runs with an attitude and is a good tone setter.
September 8th, 2008 at 7:48 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 9:24 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 9:49 AM ^
Pretty sure neither team was ranked last year either. But, lets not go there....still trying to forget last year's start.
But, otherwise, yes I agree with what you said. NBC will get better ratings just re-runing Phelps and Bolt's races from the Olympics......after the Canadian Special Oylmpics Dressage ends, of course....too funny.
September 8th, 2008 at 9:44 AM ^
OSU/USC: if Wells can’t go then USC is a pretty easy bet. I suspect Wells will play but he may not be 100%. So, we won’t know until he starts running. The scary thing for OSU is the defense was giving up 5+ YPC to OU. If you can’t stop the run the otherwise easy Big Ten schedule will be tough. Much of that running was the QB which leads me to believe OSU has not solved their troubles with the spread. I still like Illinois against them.
M/ND: Cripple Fight II is just as inscrutable as the original iteration.
I can’t believe the line moved like that. Just how bad is SDSU? It may be they are north of 75 or so out of the 110+ Div I teams. ND’s offensive line was fine in pass blocking but that may mean very little. In run blocking ND looked less well off. That may just be Weis’ inability to actually call running plays (or have someone else do it) despite his desire to ‘pound it.’ ND will have a hard time running against Michigan. Much as I hate to admit it, Claussen looked much better this season. He also made plenty of mistakes. Michigan will need those.
On defense, I don’t know what to think. SDSU had plenty of opportunities. But, their QB much like Michigan’s is not that accurate. Tenuta’s much heralded incessant blitzing was incessantly ineffective. Since Michigan only runs short patterns I expect that same result. It would be nice if the Michigan QB can get the ball around the blitzers for those screens unlike SDSU. If ND is going to walk their safeties up, I expect we will see several sideline fly routes that can be thrown quickly. ND had some problems containing SDSU when they did run but it was so rare it’s hard to know what to think.
Utah is much better than ND. Miami may be just a tad worse. SDSU is probably the worst team in the equation.
If either team can get a 2 score lead they will squat on it like a hen and hope to hatch a victory.
September 8th, 2008 at 10:14 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 11:47 AM ^
September 11th, 2008 at 10:03 AM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 11:58 AM ^
Clausen looked good because he didn't get pressured or sacked. This week he will get pressured and sacked.
And let's not forget that ND Defense has been pretty terrible under Weis. Our offense will improve on the execution front with every game this season. This could be the breakout game we were all hoping Miami would be.
Intangibles scare me the most. Especially it being the first road game for the young guys. We need to get a good lead early. The disappointment-familiar ND crowd will get real quiet really fast.
September 8th, 2008 at 12:29 PM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 12:52 PM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 8:03 PM ^
September 8th, 2008 at 8:11 PM ^
" I was 2-0 with my picks last week, the ones that I published that is."
LOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOLOL.
September 10th, 2008 at 12:51 AM ^
September 10th, 2008 at 12:54 AM ^
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