Third Down...of DOOM!
(Warning, I am a historian by trade, not a statistician,
so I may have made some incorrect conclusions, which is why I included
all of the data.)
Michigan's fatal flaw Saturday, literally, was third down
defense. While there were some positives, including two Brandon Graham
sacks, the big plays on third down were the difference in the game.
I've made a chart, because, well, I needed a chart. Basically, I wanted to see if the stats backed up up on this, and certainly, they bore me out. I also hope the formatting remains.
Quarter | To Go | Result | Pos. Yards | Neg. Yards | Play | Notes |
1st | 16 | Converted | 23 | 23 yard pass | ||
1st | 5 | Converted | 61 | 61 yard pass | TOUCHDOWN | |
1st | 6 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
1st | 9 | Converted | 12 | 12 yard pass | ||
2nd | 1 | Converted | 2 | 2 yard rush | ||
2nd | 1 | Not Converted | -3 | (3 yard rush) | ||
2nd | 10 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
2nd | 8 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
3rd | 12 | Not Converted | -7 | (7 yard sack) | ||
3rd | 6 | Converted | 50 | 50 yard pass | ||
3rd | 6 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
3rd | 6 | Converted | 12 | 12 yard pass | ||
3rd | 12 | Converted | 44 | 44 yard pass | ||
4th | 19 | Not Converted | -8 | (8 yard sack) | ||
4th | 6 | Converted | 17 | 17 yard pass | ||
4th | 1 | Not Converted | 0 | 0 yard rush | Converted on 4th | |
4th | 7 | Converted | 7 | 7 yard pass | TOUCHDOWN | |
4th | 14 | Not Converted | -2 | (2 yard rush) | Clock Drain | |
8.06 | 20.73 | 11.56 |
Basically, Michigan had MSU in an
average of 3rd and 8 and allowed an average of 11.56 yards on all plays,
or 20.73 yards on the positive plays. Two of these plays were actual
touchdowns.
So, to show this was not a fluke, I went back and looked at Penn State and Illinois. (I could have looked at Toledo, but that portended doom)
Penn State numbers, average to go 5.93, average gain on all plays 9.75, average gain on positive plays, 18.29 yards.
Quarter | To Go | Result | Pos. Yards | Neg. Yards | Play | Notes |
1st | 11 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
2nd | 7 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
2nd | 2 | Converted | 2 | 2 yard rush | ||
2nd | 1 | Not Converted | -1 | Fumble, -1 yard | ||
2nd | 7 | Not Converted | 6 | 6 yard pass | ||
2nd | 3 | Converted | 3 | 3 yard pass | TOUCHDOWN | |
3rd | 6 | Converted | 9 | 9 yard rush | ||
3rd | 10 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
3rd | 2 | Not Converted | 1 | 1 yard rush | ||
3rd | 7 | Converted | 15 | 15 yard pass | ||
4th | 10 | Converted | 11 | 11 yard pass | ||
4th | 6 | Converted | 8 | 8 yard pass | ||
4th | 1 | Not Converted | 0 | 0 yard rush | ||
4th | 10 | Converted | 80 | 80 yard pass | TOUCHDOWN | |
5.93 | 18.29 |
9.57 |
Illinois: Average to go: 7.28. Average yards on all third down plays (including penalty yards): 10.94. Average yards gained on conversions: 20.22
Quarter | To Go | Result | Pos. Yards | Neg. Yards | Play | Notes |
1st | 10 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
1st | 6 | Not Converted | 6 | 6 yard pass | After ILL holding | |
2nd | 2 | Converted | 3 | 3 yard rush | ||
2nd | 3 | Converted | 9 | 9 yard pass | ||
2nd | 1 | Not Converted | -1 | (1 yard rush) | ||
2nd | 10 | Not Converted | 4 | 4 yard rush | ||
2nd | 16 | Not Converted | -6 | (6 yard rush) | ||
3rd | 9 | Converted | 9 | 9 yard pass | ILL Hold Accepted | |
3rd | 10 | Converted | 77 | 77 yard pass | TOUCHDOWN | |
3rd | 8 | Converted | 15 | 15 yard penalty | PI on Harrison | |
3rd | 15 | Not Converted | 4 | 4 yard pass | ||
3rd | 12 | Converted | 14 | 14 yard pass | ||
3rd | 6 | Not Converted | 0 | Inc. Pass | ||
4th | 5 | Converted | 4 | 4 yard penalty | PI on Ezeh | |
4th | 2 | Converted | 50 | 50 yard rush | ||
4th | 1 | Converted | 1 | 1 yard rush | TOUCHDOWN | |
4th | 8 | Not Converted | 3 | 3 yard rush | ||
4th | 7 | Not Converted | 5 | 5 yard rush | ||
7.28 | 20.22 | 10.94 |
October 27th, 2008 at 2:12 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 2:31 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 2:38 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 2:49 PM ^
The three-man fronts on third downs probably have something to do with it.
October 27th, 2008 at 8:55 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 2:50 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 3:12 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 3:16 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 5:24 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 3:39 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 3:45 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 3:54 PM ^
October 27th, 2008 at 4:59 PM ^
2007 UofM vs MSU 3rd down stats without the pretty formatting
MSU was 7-19 on 3rd down against us.
Ave Yards to go on 3rd down: 7.68
Ave Yards gained on 3rd down: 2.89
# of 3rd down TDs: 1
# of 3rd down turnovers: 1
October 28th, 2008 at 12:25 AM ^
October 28th, 2008 at 5:28 PM ^
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