A review of Harbaugh's (ranked) wins and (all) losses at Michigan
With another clickbait 'report' of Michigan's "tainted," "fraudulent" and "unprecedented" success over the past 2 seasons because of 'rampant cheating' I thought it'd be wise to review Harbaugh's entire tenure at Michigan. I posted part of this in the 'B1G coaches "urge action" from Tony Petitti thread.
2015
Wins: #22 BYU, #13 NW, #19 Florida (Citrus Bowl)
Losses: @ Utah, #7 MSU (trouble with the snap), #8 OSU
2016
Wins: #8 Wisconsin
Losses: @Iowa, @ #2 OSU, #11 FSU (Orange Bowl)
2017
Wins: #17 UF (neutral)
Losses: MSU, @ #2 PSU, @ #5 Wisconsin, #8 OSU, South Carolina (Outback Bowl)
2018
Wins: #15 Wisconsin, @ #24 MSU, #14 PSU
Losses: @ #12 ND, @ #10 OSU, #10 Florida (Peach Bowl)
2019
Wins: #14 Iowa, #8 ND
Losses: @ #13 Wisconsin, @ #7 PSU, #1 OSU, #13 Alabama (Citrus Bowl)
2020 (COVID)
Wins: @ #21 Minnesota
Losses: MSU, @ #13 Indiana, #13 Wisconsin, PSU
2021
Wins: #2 OSU, #13 Iowa (B1G Championship)
Losses: @ #8 MSU, #3 Georgia (CFP Semifinal)
2022
Wins: #10 PSU, @ #2 OSU
Losses: #3 TCU (CFP Semifinal)
A few points:
1. Harbaugh has really not had a 'inexcusable loss' since being the coach here. Rivalry games, road games against good opponents, and bowl games are the only games that he has lost. Excluding the 2020 COVID year, they have lost to an unranked opponent 4 times:
1. @ Utah 2015 (1st game of his tenure; Utah finished the season ranked 16)
2. @ Iowa 2016 (Kinnick night game on last second FG; Iowa was ranked in bowl game but lost and finished season receiving votes only)
3. MSU 2017 (MSU finished the season ranked 16)
4. SC 2017 (Outback Bowl- SC finished the season receiving votes only)
2. Michigan's 'meteoric rise' over 2021 and 2022 has seen them beat 2 ranked teams in each season respectively. The main difference is that they beat Ohio State in those years.
Michigan's record before The Game by season, overall record (B1G record), and what would happen if they won The Game:
2015: 9-2 (6-1); win over OSU = 3 way tie between Michigan, OSU, MSU
2016: 10-1 (7-1); win over OSU = 3 way tie between Michigan, OSU, PSU
2017: 8-3 (5-3); not great
2018: 10-1 (8-0); win over OSU = Michigan OUTRIGHT B1G East title
2019: 9-2 (6-2); win over OSU = OSU OUTRIGHT B1G East title
2020: 2-4; very not great- season cancelled (no MD, OSU, Iowa games played)
2021: 10-1 (7-1); BEAT OSU = Michigan OUTRIGHT B1G East title
2022: 11-0 (8-0); BEAT OSU = Michigan OUTRIGHT B1G East title
The thought that Michigan has has 'unprecedented' success over the past 2 seasons 'because of massive cheating' is absolutely INSANE. CS did something against the rules, deserves punishment, and Michigan by proxy will get something as well, though it should be minor. If the coaches truly knew about it, it makes things worse, including the punishment. There are plenty of examples of Harbaugh being an extremely honest person and plenty of former players/coaches vouch for that, so he deserves the benefit of the doubt until proven otherwise. If what he says is true and this was CS acting on his own, anybody suggesting wins taken away, bowl ban, show-cause for Harbaugh, or that this somehow affects the 'integrity of the game' has no credibility.
It just so happens that Michigan has had a dominant defensive line (2021), a very dominant offensive line (2021 and 2022), and their most talented quarterback in decades (and arguably the best to ever play, at least at the college level, in Michigan history). That's the reason they've improved. It's as simple as that. Dominate in the trenches = success.
Michigan wins The Game in 2016 (the spot on 4th down was never going to get overturned on video review based on the ruling on the field), wins the B1G Championship game, and makes the playoff, and all of these arguments about success attributable to 'cheating' go away, as well as the narrative for years that Harbaugh 'couldn't win the big game.'
The fact that these coaches stand behind anonymity to make these claims takes all credibility away from them. This is mob mentality at it's finest and there are plenty of examples to disprove this narrative. Take Jim Harbaugh's success at every single job he has ever had, for one.
Michigan better fight like hell against any severe sanctions. The outrage and 'scandal' originates from the media and opposing programs who have significant benefit from one of the top teams in college football being punished, not from the data itself.
November 2nd, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
I'm not yet convinced that CS did anything against the rules.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
That is getting to be a hard position to sustain. Based on the pictures, I for one believe that was him on the Central sideline and that would certainly be against several rules, including in-person scouting. I certainly don't think anybody from the Michigan staff knew he was insane and was going to go onto the CMU sideline is a disguise but that was certainly a rule violation.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
If it was him, I agree that would be against several rules. But at this point, the pictures of the guy on the CMU sidelines just look like pretty much every 25-30 year old male in the known universe. I'm not convinced it was him.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:17 PM ^
Agreed. The fact that 2 or 3 of CMU’s known staffers or coaches look very similar, especially if they were wearing a hat and sunglasses means that until it’s verifiable it’s not him, IMO. Heck, you put CMU gear and sunglasses on Hartline for OSU and if you squint you could say it was stalions.
And CMU not verifying that it’s one of their guys yet means nothing. I seriously doubt CMU wants to say either way who it is until they know absolutely for sure, otherwise the chance of egg on their face is highly possible.
November 2nd, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
You can believe whatever you want, but it needs to be proved that it was actually him.
November 2nd, 2023 at 6:24 PM ^
They still have yet to establish that that was indeed Conor Stalions...
I'm not saying it wasn't. But if your punishment is reliant on the CMU thing, you better damn well be sure you have evidence that it is Stalions before acting. And no, a picture of somebody who looks like him and whom CMU can't currently identify is not proof that it was Stalions.
November 2nd, 2023 at 8:55 PM ^
If CS is doing A-team type cons to get onto the sidelines of games where no one knows who he is, the guy is an effing legend. They're going to make a "Catch Me If You Can" movie about him.
November 3rd, 2023 at 11:16 AM ^
If it was him how would we not know about it by now? This private investigative firm seems to know CS every movement for several years. Every purchase he made. And someone is making everyone aware of all of it.
November 2nd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
we would have beaten OSU in 2020 too.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:07 PM ^
I would agree that he hasn't any real horrifying defeats at the hands of really bad competition. Personally, I do think the FSU loss in the Orange Bowl was kind of inexcusable. Michigan was a far better team that FSU and was not prepared to play that game.
November 2nd, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
Similar to TCU. Some of these bowl games just don't make any damn sense.
But this article highlights the fact that it's INSANE that anyone wanted him fired prior to the 2021 season (or during, IIRC).
As OP pointed out, if that 2016 osu game is officiated even 50% properly, EVERYTHING is different.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
The thought that Michigan has has 'unprecedented' success over the past 2 seasons 'because of massive cheating' is absolutely INSANE.
This is the part that was so annoying from that Feldman article - the idea that 2021 was so unprecedented because "look at 2020." It's like everyone forgot that A&M finished top 10and IU finished #13 in 2020. When you compare 2021 to 2019/18/16/15, the biggest difference is beating OSU. I guess we won a couple of close road games to unranked teams too...but that's not that out of the ordinary.
2022 WAS different, we smoked nearly everyone. With notable exceptions of Maryland and Illinois. And in every game the first half was slow. But we also were noticeably better on offense - at QB, at RB, and even at center - from a championship winning team. To say "it's sorta sticks out" is to ignore any other available evidence. It is a narrative and one that Michigan is legally unable to defend ourselves from.
November 2nd, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^
don't you understand?! They did so well in the 2nd half because they were able to calibrate the sign stealing from the video with the first half and THEN make adjustments from the sign stealing they did in person during the first half. It's all so clear!!!!!!!!!!!
November 2nd, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
What OSU fans are also missing or refusing to acknowledge from 2020 to 2021: Michigan pushed out Don Brown and COMPLETELY changed their defensive philosophy. The UM offense did fine against OSU in '18 and '19. They couldn't stop the Buckeyes' offense.
I'm sure it's much easier to just say, "nah, they cheated" than it is to actually look at the switch from Brown's spread-run-oriented defense to MacDonald's/Minter's approach as well as really looking in the mirror at Ryan Day's unwillingness to not kick FGs in key 4th down situations.
November 2nd, 2023 at 3:33 PM ^
It's possible that OSU couldn't decode Michigan's signals anymore and that bugs them no end.
November 2nd, 2023 at 6:12 PM ^
I hope they continue to believe that the only reason we beat them is because we stole their signs. (Even though they said they changed their signs????) The more time they devote to this nonsense, the less time they spend actually try to counter what Michigan has done to turn the tables on them.
November 2nd, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
Yeah I'm going to agree with this premise. I stated it similarly to an OSU fan the other day but you detailed this much better than I did. The last two years are not strikingly different than any other year save 2020 for Harbaugh. I think the biggest keys were firing Don Brown, and beating OSU in consecutive years. If you look at 2021 and 2022 in the same lens as all his previous years at Michigan (losing to OSU), EVERYTHING looks the same. What does that look like to me? OSU is salty and thinks they found a rat in the well.
November 2nd, 2023 at 2:05 PM ^
Really comes down to ALL OSU fans and their media worshippers needing to believe and convince others that there's no way they could have legitimately lost the UM not once but twice. No way...impossible.
This years game is lining up to be on another level of intensity
November 2nd, 2023 at 3:37 PM ^
Ohio State could win on Nov. 25th, but they're really taking the wrong approach to that end. What could motivate a team more than hearing week after week that you only beat us because you cheated? Lou Holtz used to disarm his opponents with excessive praise the week of the game. Ryan Day is sniping at a Grizzly Bear with a pellet gun.
November 2nd, 2023 at 4:08 PM ^
Good breakdown. It still boggles my mind that outside of the COVID year loss to PSU, Harbaugh has never lost a home game to a team that isnt MSU or OSU. Notre Dame, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern have come into Ann Arbor ranked in the top 15. Wisconsin game in twice. They all left with a loss.
Really the whole perception of Harbaugh being a disappointment prior to 2021 came down to one thing: His record against MSU and OSU. Outside of that, Michigan was having great success as a program, but the inability to beat rivals became a thing and it got so bad that Harbaugh was almost fired for it.
I 100% understand why losing to rivals should be counted more than losing to other teams. But those losses ended up giving a negative perception of the Michigan program, leading to this idea that Michigan's success the last 3 seasons is because of illegal sign stealing. The reality, as you've illustrated, is much different. The funny thing is, even with the massive success the last 3 years, Michigan's only non-CFP loss during that timespan is to.....a rival.
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:14 PM ^
Our record in bowls/CFP has also been disappointing, but Bo went 0-7 in bowls before a 5-5 run to finish. JH is now 1-6. We should have definitely beat FSU and South Caro. The UGA and Florida and even TCU losses (TCU played well above they're norm) were legit. But I think JH has a fire lit under him after Ohio alums paid for PI firm(s) to dig up dirt
November 3rd, 2023 at 8:07 AM ^
I just don’t get why we have such persistent problems with our bowl games. It’s just weird.
November 2nd, 2023 at 6:05 PM ^
Well stated
November 2nd, 2023 at 9:10 PM ^
The MSU losses are interesting fodder.
2015 - thou shalt sayeth no moreth
2017 - terrible QB play, monsoon, etc. We were not the better team over the course of the season
2020 - what???? we played FB in 2020??? At least it led to the staffing changes that catapulted the team to 33-3
2021 - one-time portal gift (KW3)
The most frustrating loss was how badly we got smoked in 2019 at UW. Perhaps the ugliest non-Ohio loss since 2014 at ND (at least 2017 at PSU they had Barkley).
The bowl loss to South Caro (terrible QB play) was not as annoying to be as the complete meltdown the next year vs. Florida (2nd bad loss in a bowl to Dan Mullen).
What's different with JH at the helm, when we fall behind at home to Rutgers or IU 7-0 in the 1st quarter, my reaction isn't ut-oh????
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