All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted for strength of opponent.  No 1AA games or stats are included.  For more detailed questions on how the numbers come about, click here.

Rushing Offense

Expectation: +8
Reality: -7

WOW.  This was really bad, worse than I expected even.  Even if exclude the 0-4 at the goal line, its still a -1 on the day for a matchup that should have been annihilation.  It turns out it was, just in the wrong direction.  Michigan's rushing performance on the day was the second worst (before adjusting for competition which won't help them much here) performance of the weekend.  This was a full 2 TD swing, one on the goal line and another TD throughout the rest of the game. 

Passing Offense

Expectation: +2
Reality:+4

Hey look a win! But not as much. The bomb to Roundtree on 3rd and 11 was worth 5.6 points by itself.  Beyond that single play, the passing offense was nearly -2, or 4 points below expectation.  If big plays are now back in the passing playbook than this is a slight reason for optimism, if it was just a single fluke (in so many ways) play then it signals that things are absolutely not progressing in the passing game.

Rushing Defense

Expectation: -1
Reality: -16

So let's add this up.  Michigan should have been +7 in the combined ground games but in the end they finished -23.  A full 30 point swing on the ground.  At half time, both Illinois and Michigan were right at +2 in the ground games.  A draw was a win for Illinois, but it wasn't yet a disaster.  Then the third quarter happened.  Michigan went -9 for the quarter while Illinois went +8.  This is just on the ground and this is without any turnovers!

Passing Defense

Expectation: +8
Reality: 0

In a game where black was white and up was down, the pass defense was no exception.  The line on Illinois coming was that their passing defense stats were meaningless because no one had to pass against them.  That's exactly what happened to Michigan on Saturday.  Illinois had very little need to push the ball through the air because they were getting what they wanted on the ground.


Pace/Field Position

The pace and field position lined up just where Michigan wanted it.  Michigan had a field position edge of 22 expected points vs Illinois' 20.  Michigan had 12 drives for the game which is right at their season average.  Everything in this game played out just as predicted but with the role of Illinois played by Michigan and the role of Michigan played by Illinois.

Special Teams

Special teams were a lone bright spot for Michigan on Saturday.  Olesnavage had another solid day and the blocked punt could have been a big play.

Predictions

My Michigan prediction looked very good if you switch the two teams.  Unfortunately my bookie wasn't too keen on that idea.

Iowa vs Indiana - The final spreads ended up matched up pretty well, just didn't see all the points and turnovers showing up.

Michigan St vs Minnesota - Didn't have Minnesota to pull this one out, but did have them to cover and the over.

NM St vs Ohio St - The sweatervest kept the foot on the gas a while longer than I though, going two TDs further and enough for the cover.

Penn St vs NW - Kind of like the Iowa/Indiana game.  I had the final spread reasonably close but it was a different route than expected to get there.

Purdue vs Wisconsin - Had Wisconsin as a slight cover and obviously they blew the doors off the Boilermakes for a big win.