M FB 2014: Now featuring talent and depth, part 2.
Now that I had the table of talent and depth for 2014, I was curious how this compared to the 2013 team and a projected 2015 team. Here’s the table of 2013, 2014 and 2015. For 2015, I assume no attrition which is optimistic but for Brady Hoke’s tenure at Michigan not far off (mentally subtract 2-3 if you like).
|
2013 Total 4*+, JR> |
2014 Total 4*+, JR> |
2015 Total 4*+, JR> |
CB |
1 |
3 |
3 |
Safety |
0 |
1 |
3 |
LB |
0 |
3 |
4 |
DT |
1 |
1 |
3 |
DE |
2 |
2 |
3 |
|
|
|
|
QB |
1 |
1 |
1 |
RB |
1 |
1 |
4 |
T |
2 |
0 |
1 |
G |
0 |
0 |
3 |
C |
0 |
0 |
0 |
WR |
1 |
2 |
3 |
TE |
0 |
0 |
1 |
Total |
9 |
14 |
30 |
At the top level, this matches my perception that the overall team should be better in 2014 and much better in 2015. In 2014, we’ll have 50% more 4*+ JRs and SRs then in 2013. By 2015, we’ll have double the 4*+ JRs and SRs from 2014 for a total of around 30.
The good news for 2014 from this table is CB and LB play should be better and maybe safety. That sounds to me like an improved defense. The bad news is the OL loses two 4* SRs and has no 4*+ JRs/SRs to replace them with. There are three 4* players in their third year at Michigan (Magnuson, Kalis and Bars). This gets a lot better in 2015 with four 4*+ JRs on the OL.
Individual Players
Now, let’s look at indivual players as a check on the usefulness of the criteria. Here’s the list of 2013 and 2014 players who met or will meet the criteria.
2013 |
2014 |
Jibreel Black |
Raymon Taylor |
Q Washington |
Brennen Beyer |
Taylor Lewan |
Devin Gardner |
Michael Schofield |
Blake Countess |
Jeremy Gallon |
Terry Richardson |
Fitz Touissant |
Jarrod Wilson |
Raymon Taylor |
Joe Bolden |
Devin Gardner |
James Ross |
Brennen Beyer |
Jenkins-Stone |
|
Ondre Pipkins |
|
Mario Ojemudia |
|
Justice Hayes |
|
Devin Funchess |
|
Dennis Norfleet |
For 2013, of the 6 who graduated, 3 were NFL draft picks and all 9 of the players were starters and significant contributors. Going into 2014, 9 of the 14 have already been starters and two more (Bolden and Ojemudia) have played significant snaps and have 2 years left to make a larger impact. Of the remaining 3, Jenkins-Stone and Justice Hayes may both make a contribution this year. This leaves only Terry Richardson as an unlikely starter/significant contributor, and he might be in line for playing time if we didn’t have such a logjam of talented CBs.
It would be nice if there were more stars on this list, but 11 of these players still have their two best years ahead of them so that could change. Come 2015, there will be close to 30 players of this caliber on the roster. If the recruiting and attrition stays the same as the last few years, we should have 30 or more players of this caliber every single year going forward.
Looks to me like a step forward in 2014 and the sky’s the limit from 2015 on out.
If somebody could collect the players' names for 2015, that would be nice, too.
11-1 this year followed by 15-0 next year.....
I've always thought that 2014 would have a really good defense and that the offense should have really good skill players, but the o-line is still a year away. But, 2015 looks poised to finally be UM's "breakout year" where they get back to pummelling the bottom of the league and beating our rivals. I almost wish they played OSU/MSU on the road in 2015 just to stick it to them....that and they could use the help of getting them at home this year :)
I wonder what conclusions the same analysis would have drawn in 2008-2011. Hypothesis: the future always looks bright.
I wish we were not breaking in a new QB in 2015. It nullifies some of the progress that is made by then.
Hopefully we can lead some games by enough points to get Shane some meaningful game-situation reps.
This is an awesome big-picture summary. Thanks for taking the time!
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What I hope for, in the future, is that we can take the next step in this process and level out the classes. More specifically, with a huge recruiting class that we had, fills up the slots with an overabundance of freshmen...they travel thru the program until there is an overabundance of seniors...very cool for one season as the planets are theoretically aligned (OSU's nearly all-senior OL of last year comes to mind) for a good run. But come the next season the vicious circle can begin once again.
Hopefully there are plans in place to slowly level this out so there isn't a 4 year cycle of bust and boom to the point where we are "simply reloading" every year and there's a near-even distribution of Fr-So-Jr-Sr in the program with almost every Fr being a RS. Ultimately that's where we have to go to maintain our historical status in CFB.
Depth has been a killer for Michigan the last few years and it's nice to finally have some.
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