Let's Talk About Grass (NNTG)

Submitted by M Squared on October 20th, 2023 at 10:07 AM

We are surprisingly terrible playing football on natural grass (not unlike if we smoked it - presumably).  No, I am not suggesting that we are going to lose tomorrow.  Let's be real - that program in East Lansing can't put together right now any decent football on any surface .  The curious thing, however, is that Michigan has put together an elite football program crushing opponents week after week but playing on grass remains a perplexing struggle.  Consider the following facts (apologies if I missed a fact here or there).

We have had victory after victory in the last few years, but the last Big Ten game loss?  At Michigan State, on grass.  Last loss of any kind?  At State Farm Stadium, on grass.  

Starting with the 2021 season to now, Michigan is a sizzling 32-3.  All three losses came on natural grass.  31-0 on artificial turf, all 3 losses on natural grass.  Now, you may point out that we did in fact play on natural grass one other time in the last 3 seasons and we won.  That is true - at Penn State.  But the die-hards will remember this: we were down 14-17 with 3 minutes and change left in the game before we squeaked that one out.  The All-Iowa connection, McNamara to All, for almost 50 yards - good times.  Be honest - is that the way we've been winning our games on artificial turf?

We don't play on natural grass often, we don't practice on natural grass often (I noticed that Harbaugh made it a point to state specifically that we did practice this week on natural grass), and we don't play games well on natural grass.  

Given the homer that I am, I've convinced myself that the fact that, in this season, we have an easy grass game first and then a difficult one will set us up perfectly to first acclimate in East Lansing then win convincingly in State College.  But that is a homer take because we had the same schedule in 2021, and we lost one of them and barely eked out the other.  Obviously, Coach Harbaugh has more football knowledge in a fart that he releases than I could ever hope to obtain in multiple lifetimes but we are all human and we all have blindspots/weaknesses and it is my belief that we have vastly under-performed on natural grass.  

Maybe the Fiesta Bowl loss was the proverbial straw.  No one will ever convince me that we were not significantly superior to that TCU team and we would have put up a much better fight against Georgia.  Maybe the coaches think this too and now a stark focus will be imposed on preparation for natural grass games for this season.  I don't know; we shall see.

Last, I'll end with this outlook.  The playoff semi-finals are held this year at the Rose Bowl and at the Sugar Bowl.  If we have the pick, I presume many on here will want the Rose Bowl.  I do not.  I went to both of our last two Rose Bowls.  As you know, the Rose Bowl is played on grass, and we lost both of them.  The Sugar Bowl is played on artificial turf - let's go to New Orleans.  (If you are wondering, the championship game this season will be played in Houston at NRG Stadium.  Stars are aligned - that stadium uses artificial turf.)

Comments

NeverPunt

October 20th, 2023 at 10:38 AM ^

to this point...Is it possible that most of the B1G is trash, almost no one has grass, we played a tough PSU team (one of the only good teams) on grass and barely won, a major rival who was decent and fired up for the game in MSU on grass and barely lost (thanks refs), and a couple of playoff teams, one of which we should have beaten?

 

M Squared

October 20th, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^

Understood.  I didn't want to make the diary even longer but here are my thoughts on this point.  To me, 31-0 on artificial turf is not a small sample size.  That is a national championship team on artificial turf and yet we haven't even played in one during such period, notwithstanding the 31-0 record.  1-3 on natural grass (compared to 31-0) is telling to me.  

The problem w going further back is that the COVID year is the immediately prior year and it was such a weird year, to say the least.  We generally were terrible that year, and we played zero games on natural grass.  

If we look at the year immediately prior to COVID, we were 9-2 on artificial turf (conference contender level) and 0-2 on natural grass (conference bottom feeder level).  The reality is that we are just worse on natural grass.

As an indication of the lack of experience we acquire playing on natural grass, last year we played ZERO games on natural grass until the game against TCU.  TCU played all of its home games on natural grass.

I'm not an expert on the artificial turf to grass distinction by any stretch but others more knowledgeable than I have noted that traction, timing of routes, and even the crown of the field can all be different and create problems.  That comports with my personal experience but that obviously doesn't mean I'm correct.

blueheron

October 20th, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^

See the JHumich remark on correlated variables.

Additionally, I'll be more specific on my original point: I think your grass sample size is too small. Get more numbers and similar mixes of degree of difficulty (ideally, about ten games against the same opponents on both surfaces) and you might be able to draw some conclusions.

M-GO-Beek

October 20th, 2023 at 10:21 AM ^

Interesting take.  I wonder if the fact that so much of our offensive game is based on the O-Line gaining leverage and it is more difficult, or at least different, on grass than turf making it harder to bash people the way we often do on turf. 

On the other hand, the teams we played likely had a lot to do with how those games ended.  Walker had no problem cutting through our D on a grass turf, UGA would likely have beat us on any and all surfaces and grass didn't make us fumble on the 1 or throw 2 pick 6's against TCU.

M Squared

October 20th, 2023 at 11:54 AM ^

I respect your view but I would say that there were also blown calls by college refs in the 31 games on artificial turf.  When we win, it's not just because of favorable calls, and when we lose, it's not just because of unfavorable calls.  I think there's more going on.  

Most of the advanced metrics and Vegas had us winning the TCU game by a touchdown or more.  It wasn't just the calls.  In my opinion, we underperformed. 

lastofthedogmen

October 20th, 2023 at 11:28 AM ^

Footing is definitely an issue going from artificial turf to grass, and depending on consistency of the field (amount of moisture in the sod, length of grass etc) getting the right cleat length can be tricky. A team whose home field is grass will always have an advantage in footing over a turf team when playing on a grass field.

I’m assuming we’ve done our due diligence on this so no significant in-game adjustments are needed. 

k1400

October 20th, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^

Isn't Sparty's turf management program allegedly good?

Allegedly.  I did not go calling other B1G schools saying Sparty's turf school is trash and their field is trash.  I do remember seeing a trash tornado there a few years back though.

KBLOW

October 20th, 2023 at 1:11 PM ^

This ultra silly concern trolling. In 2021 ar MSU natural grass vs turf didn't make the refs reverse the fumble for a TD or cause Corum to run the wrong play and miss the handoff and fumble or make the refs refuse to call the obvious DPI on our last-gasp drive or make Walker break tackles and run like the All-American he was.  Anyway, both PSU and MSU were really good teams that year. Also, a close game on grass that we won proves nothing. Michigan had close games/relatively close games on turf that we won, too, like Rutgers and Nebraska in 2021 and Maryland and Illinois last year.

matty blue

October 20th, 2023 at 2:14 PM ^

this was an ongoing discussion back in the 70s. 

if i recall correctly, at that time, minnesota and purdue may have been the only grass fields in the big ten.  weird things seemed to happen at minnesota (that reputation lives on to this day), and when we lost as #1 at purdue in 1976 it became a thing.  plus, we tended to suck at the rose bowl, so voila - bad grass team.

Eng1980

October 20th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^

Home teams can leave the grass longer to slow down faster teams.  Team has to select the right cleats to avoid injuries or slipping.  I think Michigan is familiar with State’s grass field. 

cheesheadwolverine

October 20th, 2023 at 6:18 PM ^

2 of the 3 were in the national semifinal!  If you want to build a narrative it’s that we’ve had bowl game problems since time immemorial.  Bowls are usually in warm places, such as Miami and Phoenix, and grass grows better in warm places.

OldManJim

October 20th, 2023 at 6:26 PM ^

I think a much larger sample size exists, or could be constructed.

This issue was often raised back in the Bo era.  If we lost a regular season game to someone other than the Bucknuts, it would be Purdue (a grass field) or Sparty (ditto).  And we lost a lot of Rose Bowls.  In fact, after the original Tartan Turf field was pulled up, there was an effort to install natural turf.  The 1997 Natty team played on a grass field in the Big House.  Alas, the effort to maintain the grass was, in the long run, a losing game, and in the early aughties the shift was made to today's Field Turf.  (Came up for my 25th reunion in 2000 and watched us beat Antwaan Randle-El; there was a lot of slipping and sliding as the turf often slid out under a strong cut.)

I think this is an issue for a lot of teams that have artificial home fields, but not as much of one with the Field Turf kind of surface. 

tybert

October 21st, 2023 at 1:18 AM ^

I was at UM 1981-85 and remember this very argument even back then, starting in the late 70s with losses at Purdue 1976, 1979, three RB losses, etc.. For starters, I don't buy it. We won at Purdue 1981 26-10. The loss at ND in 82 was because Steve Smith played a pathetic game and ran into his RB and fumbled the ball away. We lost a Purdue in 84 with Bo's worst team in 21 years at UM. We won handily at South Carolina on grass 34-3 in 85. We won at Ohio to deny them B1G title in 1990 when they switched back to grass. 

The loss at MSU was mostly due to three things: (1) KWIII was a generational talent and got hands-on Mel 95 million till it didn't, (2) overturned strip sack TD was a huge momentum shift, and (3) 4th and 7 turned to 4th and 2 due to an offsides helped Sparty score down 30-14 (cut lead to 30 22). We stop that play and we win.

TCU game was just UM playing like Bo's 1970s teams in bowl games. This was a repeat of the 1978 RB loss to UW and Warren Moon but more points. This is 100% on JH to have an aggressive starts and finish to his next playoff game. UGA was just way better team. 

 

M-Dog

October 22nd, 2023 at 11:41 AM ^

I 100% agree with you. 

I was thinking of posting something like this, but you beat me to it and I like what you did.

We do not play well on grass (at least in comparison to how we play on turf), especially in our running game. 

We saw it again last night at MSU.  They were keying on the run, but if the game was on turf I don't think they would have been nearly as successful as they were in slowing down our run. 

The grass surface takes away, in particular, the micro-cuts that Corum makes that lets him escape the phonebooth.  I would have been curious to see what Mullings what have looked like out there.

There is nothing about Penn State that scares me except one thing . . . the grass surface.

One thing that does help mitigate it a little bit is that the game is in November at noon.  Why does this help?  Because the weather in the hills of Happy Valley, especially the overnight weather, is quite cold then.  This firms up the ground underneath the grass, making it more turf-like.  And a noon game does not give it much time to warm up.

I do wonder if the PSU groundskeepers will fool with the grass the way they do in pro sports to make it longer and moister/softer so that it will play slower and looser.  Especially after what PSU saw Corum do to them on turf last year.  

 

 

M-Dog

October 22nd, 2023 at 11:59 AM ^

I am replying to my own post to keep it from getting too long.

If we made the CFP, I would NOT want to play on the Rose Bowl surface in a CFP semi-final game if I had a choice.  Unless I had to face an SEC team, I would pick the Sugar Bowl surface.

There is no question in my mind that we would have won the CFP semi-final game last year against TCU with the exact same game plan and play calling, if it was on turf.  Because our running game would have been more effective.  Much more effective.  That de-facto ice that we played on completely nullified our running game.

M Squared

October 23rd, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^

M-Dog, I appreciate your thoughtful response.  You make an excellent point that I had not considered in that the November grass is different than September grass.  

I have the kind of commitment to this program that I don't even use the word "fan" to describe myself.  I consider myself a supporter and a donor.  Nevermind entire games, I don't even miss snaps (I don't live in Michigan so watch most games on TV - many on DVR because of kids' schedules).  As I've noted, I've been to each of the last 2 Rose Bowls and last year's Fiesta Bowl, and you catch a lot more in person when it comes to viewing action away from the ball.  The length of grass, the nature of the sodding, type of grass, etc. all create issues w traction, timing of routes, leverage, crown of field, etc.  I get to see in person a very high proportion of our games on natural grass, and we do not play the same on natural grass. 

A better statistician than I could better prove that than I, starting with the data that outside of the COVID year, we are 40-2 on artificial turf, and even including Saturday's game against a team that lost to Rutgers, 2-5 on natural grass - one of those wins barely against PSU and the other against a fired head coach MSU).  People will claim that a win is a win but that's not the point; the point is - do we play worse on natural grass?

Even against a SEC team, I want the playoff game to be at the Sugar Bowl.  We can win there against anyone.  I can't stomach another trip out to Pasadena and watch us lose on that field yet again.  I honestly haven't fully gotten over the Fiesta Bowl loss, haha, what a gut punch (and an unbelievable amount of money too for a family of 5).  I believe advanced metrics had us near 80% likelihood of winning by kickoff.  I am thinking about making the trip to Happy Valley in a couple of weeks though.