Iowatch! Week 2
Intro:
Welcome to Iowatch!
Iowa is a fascinating team. The B1G Conference has seen historic offensive ineptitude and historic defensive greatness…but rarely on the same team at the same time. Yet Iowa has, recently, manifested both extremes.
But, for the record, I don’t think that Iowa is going to be the worst team in the B1G on offense this season. I’m guessing Northwestern, and I don’t think it’ll be close.
This probably won’t be an every-week thing. Depends on the reception, tbh: let me know if you find this interesting.
Anyway.
Iowa’s defense is so good that their offense basically DOES NOT MATTER:
They were spectacular at preventing scoring, giving up only 17 touchdowns on the season. Minnesota put up 400 yards of offense, but only scored 10 points. Ohio State accounted for roughly a THIRD of all the TDs that Iowa’s defense allowed. They also contributed to the scoring themselves, returning 4 INTs and 2 fumbles for touchdowns, and notching 2 safeties (I honestly expected more safeties). They are that good.
On offense, Old Friend (Frenemy?) Cade McNamara is tasked with turning around an offense that scored 19 touchdowns ALL YEAR in 2022. Iowa QBs threw TDs and INTs at a 1:1 ratio last season (7 of each), and, on a Points Per Drive basis, paired the #1 defense with the #120 offense. It was bad.
In the strive to be Not That, as we all know, “Offensive” “Coordinator” “Brian” Ferentz must average 25 points per game this season. But, hilariously, those 25 points can include defensive and special teams scores. So he might be in good shape!
Lots of places are tracking this 25 PPG average, but I want to dig a little bit deeper. I hypothesized that Iowa’s offense would take a big step forward under Cade (even though he might have to start calling plays himself…), and in the interests of intellectual honesty…I want to track just how wrong I was.
So What Are We Tracking
- Points Per Game: Macro level stat very relevant to the team’s future
- Offensive Points Per Game: let’s call this the “things that Brian Ferentz actually influences” stat. If he’s not going to be fired in reality, we can fire him spiritually. Extra points and 2-pt conversions after a defensive score count towards the defense here, sorry Brian.
- Cumulative # of 3-and-outs and 4-and-outs: I want to know how many drives fail to get a 1st down.
- Receptions and Receiving Yards by Running Backs: Cade was cash money taking ‘free’ yards in 2021 - I want to see if this continues. Fullbacks count here too! Justice for Khalid Hill!
- SP+ Defense to Offense Gap: Hypothesis: Iowa finds a modicum of offense, and the Gap doesn’t seems so bad by year end.
Week 2 Update
One-Sentence Summary:
Iowa 20-13 over Iowa State. Football happened, allegedly.
Saving Private Brian
Outlook: Not Good. Iowa’s defense already has a score on the season, and we can expect more. Hold on to your butts.
Futility Rate
This could actually be WORSE! I included two “end of half/game” drives in the Other section, and will continue to do so due to the remote possibility of a Hail Mary.
RB Receptions are Moneyball, Dammit
Got off to an ok start with 4 receptions in Game 1 for 31 yards, but then just sorta gave up on it in Game 2. We’ll be keeping an eye on this. Cade, this is what you’re supposed to be GOOD at.
One-Phase Football
Air Force is the only team with a larger gap between defense and offense rankings. Special Teams is ranked 18th, FWIW.
September 11th, 2023 at 7:45 PM ^
For the record, I LIKE Iowa. Their fans have been nothing but nice when I've talked to them, and they have the best tradition in college football, bar none, by waving at the Children's Hospital.
September 12th, 2023 at 8:56 PM ^
I also like Iowa, except when we play them at Kinnick at night.
The hospital wave is the best. Many years, their offense is a lot like ours (so I feel bad for them). They generally have a good defense, which I like. In other words, they are in a number of ways like Michigan.
So yeah, keep doing this, if you can!!
September 13th, 2023 at 11:15 AM ^
I, too have a soft spot in my heart for the Hawkeyes, and was happy when Cade and Erick picked them as their new home. I’m personally hoping they go 12-0, lose to UM in Indy, and then lose to UM again in Houston to finish the year 13-2.
September 11th, 2023 at 7:52 PM ^
They won that game with nine first downs. NINE. FOR A GAME.
September 11th, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
If I can't have a meteor at the ND/OSU game, can I PLEEEEEEEEZE have a situation in Iowa's final game where they have a choice to kick the field goal and save Brian's job but lose the game, or go for it to win the game.
September 12th, 2023 at 12:29 AM ^
Other things will happen before Brian Ferentz loses his job! Ain't happening.
September 11th, 2023 at 9:09 PM ^
How does that contract actually read? Is it that they will not renew his current contract if he does not reach the 25 ppg and 7 wins?
Is there anything that will stop Iowa from resigning him under another contract?
September 11th, 2023 at 9:33 PM ^
I assume Kirk Ferentz will go through whatever efforts he feels necessary to NOT fire his son. Likewise, the AD will go through whatever efforts he feels necessary to NOT piss off Kirk.
My $1 is on Brian Ferentz being with Iowa in 2024, in some capacity
September 12th, 2023 at 8:09 AM ^
I can't see any reason that Iowa can't simply change his job title and rehire him. They might even give him a raise.
September 12th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
This, they can just turn him into the QB Coach, let Kirk "call the plays" and then make him the OC a year later smh.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^
Gary Barta is retired and the new AD is a woman, Beth Goetz. She's very qualified and doing a great job so far. I don't know her but she seems to me to be someone truly interested in upholding the integrity of the athletic department and university as a whole.
That having been said, Kirk Ferentz rules the roost around here. He can and will keep his son Brian on staff if that is what he wants to do. Plus let's be honest, the contract is just for show, just like the fact that Brian reports to the AD and not to his dad. If Iowa wins 9+ games, which they very well might do, Brian won't be fired even if the team averages < 25 pts per game.
One other thing: Cade is very much himself so far. Reasonably accurate passer based on pre-snap reads but very immobile in the pocket. When he gets pressured he usually gets sacked. Plus he seems a bit physically fragile to me; there might have been some kind of quad/soft tissue injury during fall camp. And/or he is still recovering from his knee surgery last winter.
So in sum, while Cade is definitely an upgrade from putrid Spencer Petras, he himself is quite limited. Needless to say we (Michigan) chose the right QB for ourselves and let the right QB move on to greener pastures in the heartland.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:44 PM ^
My money is on them going 11-1 (losing to psu) and winning west. Their schedule is gold and Cade can probably make up 3 wins. Their average winning score will be 20-10. The Iowa fan base will be split on honoring the contract clause, but no one in the Athletic Department will have the nerve to carry it out. Iowa gets blitzed by UM in Indy, and then gets run by USC in bowl game.
September 14th, 2023 at 10:37 AM ^
That's exactly what it is, everyone is acting like he will be fired if they don't hit the 25 ppg mark but barring a total offensive disaster I think there's no way Brian gets fired. Especially if Iowa keeps winning games then Kirk and their AD aren't going to care. The worst that happens is that Brian gets a new contract with lower pay imo.
September 11th, 2023 at 9:54 PM ^
I like to think if the points per game metric as a deficit - they are 6 points short of where they need to be
September 13th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
It should be like the Thermometer metric they use for charity drives.
For a 12 game season, they need somewhere between 295 and 300 total points depending on the points per game is rounded. Can color code offense points vs. defensive points to track the true success, even though as I understand its only total points per game that matters, so somehow Brian gets credit for defensive and special teams points.
So they have 44 out of 300 points needed for the season. If you consider FGs/XPs as offensive points, they have 38 points scored by the offense and 6 points by the defense. and they are 256 points away from their goal
September 11th, 2023 at 11:11 PM ^
Yes I find this very interesting. Numbers, charts and graphs explaining the mind boggling thing we call Iowa football.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:01 PM ^
Mind-boggling? Nah, it's very much like Carr-era Michigan. Run the ball predictably, and have some success anyway. Throw to the running backs and the tight end. Embrace the waggle. Lean on an excellent defense.
Yes, Michigan had much more talent on offense, so we could try to catch up by throwing to the WRs, and it often worked. But all too often (and sometimes against Iowa), it didn't work.
I'd posit that Carr-era Michigan was often more mind-boggling.
September 13th, 2023 at 8:08 AM ^
The school one season passing yards record came from Lloyd ball (Navarre), and 5 of the top 6 single season passing yards. What he didn't have was a mobile qb. That's where he felt paleolithic considering what Syracuse, Oregon et al did to us.
September 13th, 2023 at 12:01 PM ^
Lloyd also didn’t have the #1 defense. He just game planned as if he did.
Harbaugh does this too. It’s infuriating in the rare occasions when we NEED to keep our foot on the gas for the whole game.
September 12th, 2023 at 2:24 AM ^
Great visuals and section titles. I'll keep reading this.
It would be sad but also hilarious if after 25+ years at Iowa, Ferentz senior was forced out bc he broke some rules/commitments in order to keep his son in staff. And all this bc Ferentz junior was (truly terrible at his job, but) only slightly worse at his job than most Iowa OC's in the last century.
September 12th, 2023 at 8:29 AM ^
So...is this 25 ppg thing an actual contract item for Brian Ferentz? I assumed (incorrectly?) that this was an MGoBlog created joke/meme.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^
This discussion absolutely extends beyond MGoBlog, and I have seen nothing to make me doubt its validity. From my understanding, he needs the team to score 325 points, and win seven games. This includes a potential bowl game. So the 25 ppg comes from averaging over 13 games. Were Iowa to make the B1G championship game the average drops to ~23.2 ppg. The team is currently behind even that number.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:51 AM ^
Last year the defense contributed 46 points (6TD's, 2 safeties, and yes they get credit for the XPs). Brian better hope the defense contributes >3 points/game again this year!
BTW, I endorse revisiting the progress on this throughout the season. Thanks OP for spotlighting this for us.
September 13th, 2023 at 8:28 AM ^
The fact that this has to be written into what is essentially a performance contract that is now very much public and the source of many jokes is really quite sad, even for Iowa.
This screams of mediocrity and I would bet scare off future OCs from applying to this job when the younger Ferentz inevitably fails to score enough points on their way to an 8-5 season. What's the old phrase about the definition of insanity again?
September 13th, 2023 at 10:47 AM ^
Side note: I HATE that that quote gets mis-attributed to Einstein, for two reasons
1. Einstein would have known about the Law of Very Large numbers: repeat an experiment enough times, you’ll get EVERY possible result
2. Einstein was an avid violinist. “Doing the same thing time and time again and expecting a different result” could also be called “practice”
I will DIE on this hill ;-)
September 12th, 2023 at 9:24 AM ^
I just can't wrap my head around how Iowa, and much of the B1G West, ended up in such a hole of mediocrity like this.
September 12th, 2023 at 9:54 AM ^
“Mediocrity” would be an improvement on offense for Iowa. They would absolutely dominate with a mediocre offense
September 12th, 2023 at 10:15 AM ^
Fair point.
September 12th, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^
But, overall, Iowa football is mediocre. Awful offense + great defense = mediocrity
September 12th, 2023 at 3:30 PM ^
Lack of a recruiting base is a lot of it.
September 12th, 2023 at 10:07 AM ^
Iowa's remaining schedule:
- Western Michigan
- @ Penn State
- MSU
- Purdue
- @ Wisc
- Minn
- @Northwestern
- Rutgers
- Illinois
- @Neb
I'm hoping Iowa gets to around 250 points by the end of the Minnesota game. That would really set up for some drama in those last four weeks.
Nice job on the diary!
September 12th, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
If you break this down for games where you'd expect their offense to muster 25 points or more....
WMU & NU - you'd sure hope so
@PSU, Rutgers, Purdue, @Nebraska - seems unlikely. PSU is good, Rutgers can Defense, Purdue has Ryan Walters now, and Matt Rhule seems to be able to coach a good D based on first two weeks.
The rest are all shruggies but seem unlikley based on recent events....MSU, Minn, Illinois, Wisc should all be good enough on D to hold them down, though Illinois and Wisky looked less good than last year.
Woof.
September 12th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
Wow. It's been clear the discrepancy between offense and defense is great but to see these numbers is wild.
September 12th, 2023 at 10:35 AM ^
Worse offense in the B1G? Have you seen this year's Nebraska team? They might go 0-12 this season.
September 12th, 2023 at 10:46 AM ^
Nebraska has a good coach. And players who WEREN’T so busy defending a toxic coach that they forgot to practice.
I expect Nebraska to improve significantly over the course of the year. I honestly don’t know about Northwestern.
Definitely willing to keep tracking it! I might add a “Hey, It Could Be Worse” section here if other B1G teams descend into the absolute abyss.
September 12th, 2023 at 2:57 PM ^
Nebraska needs a new QB or they will continue to lose winnable games. Jeff Sims is not the answer. Dude makes awful decisions.
September 12th, 2023 at 11:01 AM ^
Thank you for doing this. I'll keep reading throughout the season. Does that make me a bad person?
September 12th, 2023 at 11:24 AM ^
Potentially a masochist. Or maybe really into schadenfreude, depending on how you view this whole topic.
Speaking of schadenfreude; do we have any college football coverage akin to This Week in Schadenfreude, or The Main Character anymore?
September 12th, 2023 at 12:38 PM ^
I really enjoyed the weekly twitter/X recap with brian ferentz riding up a mountain to 325. Spencer Hall I think? I could it find it on the googles :(
September 12th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
The football happened, allegedly.
Excellent sir!
September 12th, 2023 at 1:53 PM ^
Great, now I have to pay attention to Iowa this season. No one should have to pay attention to Iowa. Is there a special Iowa Sickos community?
September 12th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
With their hospitality, I'd assume it's just Iowa message boards and they welcome sickos from afar
September 12th, 2023 at 11:51 PM ^
Iowa is like the Sickos Committee's mascot. They were the overwhelming winner of the Sickos team of the year last year.
They appear three times in the top thirty of the Sickos preseason top 30 (Iowa is #1, Brian Ferentz as an individual is #23, the Big Ten West is #24)
September 12th, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Love the initiative, and great commitment on a your post to the board, PL.
September 13th, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
Can't wait for the PSU game here. This is where we will find out about Drew Allar. If it were a home game for Iowa, I'd be tempted to look at that game as an Upset opportunity. Very interested to see how that plays out.
September 14th, 2023 at 9:50 AM ^
Calling Pope Lano. Will you take the over or the under?
Iowa hasn't yet cracked 25. Can they beat a team by 28.5+ without cracking 25? Will this be the big leap the Iowaffense has been hoping for, or are we looking at the D and Special teams paving the way? Stay tuned for the Pope's next post and possibly some answers to these cliffhanger questions.
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