DT / Top 10 Recruiting
I know it's gameday (whatever that's worth), but I got an itch after reading the Defense UFR yesterday to see why we're so short-staffed at DT. And then I went down a rabbit hole to see whether or not the top quality guys that Harbaugh has brought in matched up with OSU. So, this is going to be two parts.
DT Recruiting - 2015 to Present
With the -18 put up last week by the DL, I was curious where Michigan fell short in bringing in talent. So here's a list of everyone who was listed as a DT or could slide to DT that has been recruited so far by Jim Harbaugh and staff.
2020: None
2019: Chris Hinton (31) / Mazi Smith (105)
2018: None
2017: Aubrey Solomon (23) / James Hudson (231) / Deron Irving-Bey (249) / Donovan Jeter (289) / Phil Paea (459)
2016: Rashan Gary (1) / Carlo Kemp (310) / Mike Dwumfour (947)
2015: None
Pretty self-explanatory. The transition class isn't totally his fault given how it went done so I'm giving 2015 a pass. 2016 looks okay given the fact that Kemp and Dwumfour are serviceable and Kemp is probably a little out of position (best guess is they saw the future at DT and had Kemp switch).
That 2017 DT haul goes down with the 2013 OL class as something that could submarine a coaching tenure. They got zero contributors. The top three guys are no longer with the program and the other two aren't even guys at this point. Following that up with a zero in 2018 is how you end up with Ben Mason paying major snaps.
I don't think it can be overstated how badly Aubrey Solomon not working out has been. If Solomon is a 5* talent in the middle, Kemp can shift to 3T and be decent and even be a rotation guy if Dwumfour is healthy. Instead, it's zilch. They might need to process some guys and go after some DT fliers in 2020.
Top 10 Prospects - 2015 to Now vs. Ohio State
So, the gap behind OSU has never looked wider. I was curious if they've just done a better job recruiting over the past 5 years (they've gotten higher ranked talent for sure) or if it's the utilization of the talent. Honestly, what I found is sort of neither.
2015
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Brian Cole - Transferred
Zach Gentry - NFL
Tyree Kinnel - NFL
Grant Newsome - Retired
Alex Malzone - Transferred
Ty Wheatley Jr. - Transferred
Shelton Johnson - Transferred
Karan Higdon - NFL
Reuben Jones - Transferred
Grant Perry - Graduated / Started
Justin Hillard - Bench
Jerome Baker - NFL
Mike Weber - NFL
Torrance Gibson - Graduated
Jashon Cornell - Starting
Eric Glover-Williams - Transferred
Isaiah Prince - NFL
Matt Burrell - Transferred
Dre'Mont Jones - NFL
KJ Hill - Starting
2016
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Rashan Gary - NFL
Ben Bredeson - Starting
Brandon Peters - Transferred
David Long - NFL
Devin Asiasi - Transferred
Mike Onwenu - Starting
Kareem Walker - Transferred
Kekoa Crawford - Transferred
Lavert Hill - Starting
Ron Johnson - Transferred
Nick Bosa - NFL
Jonathan Cooper - Starting
DeMario McCall - Rotation
Austin Mack - Graduated
Dwayne Haskins - NFL
Binjimen Victor - Starting
Keandre Jones - Transferred
Jake Hausmann - Bench
Michael Jordan - NFL
Jordan Fuller - Starting
2017
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DPJ - Starting
Aubrey Solomon - Transferred
Cesar Ruiz - Starting
Luiji Vilain - Bench
Drew Singleton - Transferred
Ambry Thomas - Starting
Jordan Anthony - Bench
Chuck Filiaga - Bench
Tarik Black - Starting
Dylan McCaffrey - Rotation
Chase Young - Starting
Jeff Okudah - Starting
Baron Browning - Rotation
Shaun Wade - Starting
Wyatt Davis - Starting
Trevon Grimes - Transferred
JK Dobbins - Starting
Josh Myers - Starting
Tate Martell - Transferred
Isaiah Pryor - Transferred
2018
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Aidan Hutchinson - Starting
Cam McGrone - Bench
Mustapha Muhammad - Bench
Myles Sims - Transferred
Joe Milton - Bench
Jalen Mayfield - Starting
Ryan Hayes - Bench
Gemon Green - Bench
Christian Turner - Rotation
Taylor Upshaw - Bench
Nicholas Petit-Frere - Bench
Taron Vincent - Injured
Tyreke Johnson - Not on 2 Deep
Jaelen Gill - Bench
Tyreke Smith - Not on 2 Deep
Jeremy Ruckert - Bench
Teradja Mitchell - Not on 2 Deep
Tommy Togiai - Bench
Matt Jones - Bench
Josh Proctor - Bench
2015 and 2017 seems to be where the gulf stems from. Outside of those Top 10, Ohio State has a number of RS SRs playing major roles for this year's team. Michigan doesn't really have anybody. In 2017, Michigan landed their WRs (which they don't use), Ruiz, and Thomas. Meanwhile, the Top 7 guys in OSU's class are all major contributors / All Big 10 guys or good pieces.
Anyways, food for thought. Also, look at OSU's depth chart this year. They are going to lose a ton next year and based on the 2018 class, it might be a dropoff in talent from where they've been the past few years.
September 28th, 2019 at 9:49 AM ^
The 2017 defensive line class fail will set this defense back several years. Kemp and Dwomfor are gone after this year. The line will be bad again next year. You simply can not survive with 5 guys not contributing. Then not to take anyone in 2018?! That’s coaching malpractice. We better hope Mazi Smith and Chris Hinton are big time hits or this shit defense may linger for several seasons.
September 28th, 2019 at 11:16 AM ^
The state of the DL is the same as the state of the OL when Harbaugh took over. Program cripplingly bad with a "fixed" date several seasons off in the future.
You flat out cannot compete at a high level in CFB without DTs. Michigan's DT recruiting is going to keep them capped at 9 to 10 win seasons for the foreseeable future.
Michigan's best case scenario is that they come up with a Big 12 level high-scoring offense to go with their Big 12 level defense.
September 28th, 2019 at 4:39 PM ^
I would argue the d-line would be better next year if he would actually play Hinton and mazi, those 2 guys need to start next year and they need to be playing this year more to prepare for next year
September 28th, 2019 at 9:23 PM ^
I would argue that the d-line would be even better next year if they had decent coaching
Can we stop with all the recruiting nonsense? Teams that have lower rated classes do much better. JH is a bona fide celeb- he can get good kids and did- its what happens after that sucks
September 30th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
We have no idea how good Nua is at this point considering the tools he has to work with. This year's struggles seem to be 100% talent/guys playing out of position. Teams that have lower-rated classes also generally have competition at positions and have guys whose bodies have spent several years in a S&C program for that specific position. Kemp is playing nose because he's the only non-freshman who can play nose. It's not because he's built to be a nose tackle. Jeter is starting at the other DT position because the alternative is a 270 pound converted fullback. In past years we've also rotated defensive linemen frequently. We don't have the bodies for that this year. Recruiting 100 percent matters.
October 1st, 2019 at 7:00 AM ^
I don't understand why we have zero DT recruits in the 2020 class. I understand a class being a bust, but not doing anything about it in 2020 seems insane. What is going on there?? There are three Michigan HS players in the 247 top 100 DTs nationally. They are going to Kentucky (Justin Rogers), Purdue, and Minnesota: https://247sports.com/Season/2020-Football/RecruitRankings/?InstitutionGroup=highschool&Position=DT
September 29th, 2019 at 10:00 AM ^
I mean we’re 4 games in. There’s 8 regular season games left for Mazi and/or Hinton to get playing time. If they’re absolutely not ready at this point, putting them on the field doesn’t benefit them. Get them to do the right things in practice, then get them on the field doing the right things. Going out and being overmatched doesn’t do a young player any good.
September 30th, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
There was no better time to get them in than against Rutgers. How many snaps did they get? This is coaching malpractice at this point.
September 29th, 2019 at 11:41 AM ^
Dwumfour will be back. He'll get a medical redshirt for his freshman year.
You are repeating the OP's mistake in counting the DT recruits. Lots of future DTs are listed at SDE by recruiting services. In fact, they list about as many prospects at SDE as they do at DT. Obviously a lot of them bulk up and move inside, not just at Michigan.
We've taken 5 SDEs in the last two classes and 2 DTs. Some of those SDEs were clearly targeted to play DT,
The 2017 class does hurt. I don't think anyone expected Michigan to make DTs a priority in the 2018 class.
September 28th, 2019 at 9:56 AM ^
Losing solomon hurts the most but missing out on tyler friday looms large. He was one of 3(!) top 10 DTs that OSU took. We could've used that to win him over but guess not.
September 28th, 2019 at 10:25 AM ^
Very sobering look at the recruiting.
I would bring up the caveat that OSU has been a juggernaut since the early aughts while we have not and they had a top 3 coach (in the modern era) the past 7 years so the momentum they've had is way ahead of where Harbaugh is.
Tressel had them a perennial top 10 program for over a decade and then Urban Meyer takes over with his two rings and almost other-worldly track record. Harbaugh was preceded by an aging Carr with things not trending upward and then arguably the two worst coaches in program history.
NOT making excuses, because I expected Harbaugh to get a lot more elite talent than he has but the programs were not on equal footing, and haven't been for almost 20 years. So that plays into it, quite a bit. In Rags to Roses - the story of the rise of Stanford from Harbaugh to Shaw, Harbaugh has a quote about the old school flour mills and flywheels. Paraphrasing, they are heavy and take a while to get going but once they get going they are tough to stop. OSU has been barrelling along while we've had to stop and restart ours several times, even under Harbaugh it seems like they've gotten some momentum and then paused and let it stop (like this new offensive system).
I doubt anyone of us expected Harbaugh and Co. to miss out on so many guys - on both sides of the line. Seems like a lot of fliers were taken, intentionally.
Which is funny when you think of landing future 1st rounders like Bush and Gary.. those guys were both elite recruits (Bush less so, but he wasn't a generic 3-star at all). Clearly the staff can close on elite talent, just not every year for some reason.
How much of a factor were guys like Drevno and Pep in our ability to reel in top talent? Partridge can't be the lead recruiter for everyone.
CB gives me concern too - after this year we just have Ambry and some guys. At least DT has Smith/Hinton.
September 29th, 2019 at 4:18 PM ^
Agree, just my opinion is consistency. The 2017 class is also Mattison's dline class as he and Brown both had to target them. It's a little hit and miss but the holes with no dt's taken and a bust like 2017 is why this mess happens.
This season is Dwumfor or bust tbh. Either he is a difference maker or we are in trouble. Smith/Hinton, Idk if you want to lose the redshirt on these guys because they aren't ready yet and it's obvious. I like the 4 games but Hinton has now played two games and Smith, has at least played one game. Jeter, I don't get it, he has everything. Maybe football just isn't his thing because the staff emphasized him all off season and he gets in a game and gives up leverage when the ball snaps.
Recruiting the DT position has to become a priority. 2016 and 2018 where we had a rotation we had strong defenses. 2017 just didn't have a rotation. Mo Hurst was awesome but we needed others behind him and they weren't ready.
September 28th, 2019 at 10:36 AM ^
Lots of hard work there...but this has already been covered ad nauseam. We are all very aware of the years of recruiting shortfalls, transfers, injuries, and guys underperforming. We need a FIX, not another review of “why”.
September 29th, 2019 at 10:53 PM ^
Agree, however the review will come continually till it's fixed. When we win big ten titles and beat osu, i'm sure the topics in which RR and Hoke get brought up and all the things under harbaugh will begin to really disappear for long stretches. Better days, big ten titles, beating Osu, Go Blue!
September 28th, 2019 at 10:44 AM ^
Given the way the roster and recruiting line up, if Smith and Hinton are not multiple year stalwarts in the middle the defense is going to go down the toilet. You can't have a good defense and be soft in the middle. They are finding that out this season.
It looks like they are dead set on redshirting both Smith and Hinton in the hopes of keeping them longer than 3 years.
September 28th, 2019 at 10:51 AM ^
Winning is the cure.
September 29th, 2019 at 4:20 PM ^
You can't win in the big ten if you are weak up the middle on defense.
September 28th, 2019 at 11:33 AM ^
I just don't understand how Brown and Harbaugh could not have foreseen how dire the DT situation was once Solomon left.
There is no excuse for not getting Mazi and Hinton ready to play immediately once it was apparent Dwumfour was a lost cause due to injury.
And at minimum, they should've moved Onwenu to DT for fall camp for emergency scenarios like Wisconsin.
It just feels like the coaching staff has no ability to adapt within game or season whatsoever.
September 28th, 2019 at 4:32 PM ^
Or re-injury Dwumfour just for Wisconsin wasn't worth it.
If Michigan wins the division (beating Rutgers, IU, MD, MSU, PSU, OSU), then they face Wisonsin again regardless (or whoever wins the West).
Wisky wasn't a must-win, but injuring your recovering DT, or breaking the chemistry of your O-Line with Onwenu, or Mazi, or Hinton, early in the season in a non-deterministic game they might have decided wasn't worth it.
What's more likely? That Harbaugh and Brown are pure idiots who didn't see this coming, or, they made a conscious decision not to risk re-injury/chemistry for a game that determines nothing?
September 29th, 2019 at 12:07 PM ^
I'd be lying if I said I didn't consider that a 50/50 proposition.
September 28th, 2019 at 5:56 PM ^
Ohio State currently has a top 5 class for '20. If they don't fall apart this year, there's no reason to suspect that they won't finish there. The only hole in their class is at RB, which might very well wind up costing Alford his job-- both Bijan Robinson and Jaylon Knighton had told the staff they were going to commit, and changed their mind just a couple of days before announcing.
I mean, it's not unreasonable to hope that their recruiting will fall off, but at least this year (and very early 2021), there's no evidence of it yet.
September 30th, 2019 at 5:13 PM ^
I haven't heard anything about Alford being on the hot seat if he doesn't get a 4-star RB this cycle. Yes, we missed on all the top targets (add Kendall Milton to the list, because we led for him for a while too), but there's talk the Knighton is still a potential flip (FSU is terrible and could potentially see a coaching change) and we're leading in the crystal balls for 4-star Kevontre Bradford out of TX. We're also still in for guys like E.J. Smith, Michael Drennen, and Miyan Willaims. With Teague playing well and Crowley already having his redshirt burned, there isn't nearly as much hand-wringing as there was when both Robinson and Knighton committed elsewhere.
September 28th, 2019 at 10:35 PM ^
I have another question, DL related, but not the DT's in particular.
Where on earth is Luiji Vilain? This is his 3rd year in the program. Is he injured again? If so, it's getting really late, really early for him.
September 29th, 2019 at 4:28 PM ^
He saw action at the end of the Rutgers game. I think he's just rusty since he hadn't played for two full seasons.
September 29th, 2019 at 4:27 PM ^
I don't think it can be overstated how badly Aubrey Solomon not working out has been.
Without a snap yet, I'm concerned Mazi Smith may be the next Solomon. I can't believe we can't get this guy in, even in a blowout like Rutgers.
September 29th, 2019 at 8:21 PM ^
We were recruiting kickers
October 1st, 2019 at 1:21 PM ^
Kemp was recruited as a DE, and is predictably still undersized for a P5 DT. Gary could have moved inside, but was also recruited with the intent of using him as a DE. Jeter was a DE, and Irving-Bey was a tweener. The number of actual, playable DTs we’ve signed over the past five years is even fewer than you list.
The deliberate practice of over-recruiting DEs and hoping some of them beef up is overall a loser, even if it works out in a few cases. Even if a 250 lb DE recruit can put on 40-50 lbs, there is no guarantee that he’ll be the same player you recruited, and even if he is, you can count on losing at least one scholarship year when they’re in the tweener stage.
Rule of thumb: Sign two true DTs every class. Let the DEs take care of themselves. If one or two are eventually able to slide inside, that’s gravy, but it shouldn’t be a plan.
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