Communist Football's Rooting Guide for Championship Weekend 2023
What are the most favorable scenarios for Michigan in the CFP? I postulate that they involve the following characteristics:
- Michigan actually making the CFP (beat Iowa!)
- OSU not backdooring its way in like last year (unlikely, but possible)
- Not having to face Georgia (the strongest non-Michigan team), by Alabama winning
- (Bonus) Washington defeating Oregon, as Oregon is on balance the stronger of the two.
Tl;dr: Root for Washington, Alabama, Texas, and Florida State.
This helpful graphic from Nick Trig, to which I have added green and cyan rectangles, highlights the most favorable scenarios for Michigan. Basically, I eliminated any scenario in which Michigan doesn't make the CFP, along with any scenario in which Georgia or Ohio State does make the CFP.
As you can see, the green rectangles involve a Washington victory in the Pac-12 championship on Friday night, and the cyan rectangles involve an Oregon victory.
Then comes the Big XII championship at noon on Saturday. Four of the six best scenarios involve Texas winning, while two involve OSU winning.
All six scenarios involve Alabama beating Georgia, which would knock Georgia out of the CFP if...
...Florida State defeats Louisville. By Trig's scenarios, a Louisville victory over FSU in the prime-time game could still work out if Texas and Alabama win.
The Committee could choose four teams in a different way than this graphic represents, but these represent the most likely scenarios.
If Georgia defeats Alabama, Michigan will be the 2 seed in every scenario where we beat Iowa, in which case our likely opponent is the Pac-12 champ or Texas (if it defeats NTOSU).
Do you agree or disagree?
November 30th, 2023 at 9:04 PM ^
I should add that in this paragraph
Then comes the Big XII championship at noon on Saturday. Four of the six best scenarios involve Texas winning, while two involve OSU winning.
I mean Oklahoma State (NTOSU)!
December 2nd, 2023 at 12:30 AM ^
Updated graphic now that Washington has defeated Oregon. The eyes of Texas are upon us!
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:05 AM ^
Texas winning eliminates (yt)OSU… I think I know who I’m rooting for.
I also agreed with the assumption in the original tree that a 1-loss Wash would&should get in over OSU. Wash would have had a victory over a conference champ and a loss in a 13th game in that scenario, neither of which OSU could claim.
December 2nd, 2023 at 5:56 PM ^
Texas winning a huge deal; as you say it eliminates YTOSU. Alabama leading at the half as I type this. Things are looking good!
November 30th, 2023 at 9:28 PM ^
Go, Blue!
Beat Iowa.
December 1st, 2023 at 7:56 PM ^
And meh on all the other games.
November 30th, 2023 at 9:48 PM ^
Just win, baby
November 30th, 2023 at 11:40 PM ^
I predict the playoff will be:
1. UGA vs 4. Texas
2. Mich vs 3. UW
UGA vs Michigan final
December 1st, 2023 at 12:55 AM ^
Those Duck's quack louder than the Huskys bite.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:32 AM ^
Here is my wishful thinking prediction.
1. Michigan
2. Washington
3. Texas
4. Florida State
And my unfavorable outcome.
1. Georgia
2. Michigan
3. Oregon
4. Texas
December 1st, 2023 at 1:16 AM ^
There is actually an interesting scenario where we could have a CFP with no SEC team in it.
Here is that "no SEC in the CFP" scenario:
- Michigan wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Washington wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- FSU wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
That gives you three undefeated conference champions with convincing and dominant wins in their championship games. You can't make a reasonable case to leave them out of the CFP.
To continue:
- Texas wins big, a convincing and dominant win.
- Alabama beats Georgia in an ugly win that makes both teams look bad, ala the 6 to 3 LSU - Alabama game several years ago.
That gives you three one-loss teams for one remaining CFP slot: Texas and Alabama who won their conferences, and Georgia who did not win their conference.
Who do you pick for that one slot?
The CFP committee has clearly stated that they value a conference championship. They are not going to pick Georgia over Alabama.
So it's down to Texas and Alabama. Texas has already beaten Alabama head-to-head, at Alabama, by double digits. That matters. That's why you play the games. Alabama may counter by saying "Well we beat #1 Georgia, that proves how good we are." But Texas can counter by saying "Well we beat YOU, that proves how good WE are."
It would be very hard to make a case to leave Texas out in favor of Alabama. So, this would result in a scenario of a CFP with no SEC team.
Of course the reality is that SEC bias is indeed a real thing, and the CFP committee will manufacture some BS reason to make sure an SEC team is not left out, no matter what. (Probably to the detriment of undefeated Florida State that would get shut out to make way for an SEC team. The talking heads at ESPN are already trashing FSU to pave the way for this scenario.)
December 1st, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^
That would be the worst day in Dixie since sometime in 1865.
December 1st, 2023 at 8:03 AM ^
Underrated comment. And that outcome would be taken harder than Sherman’s march to the sea.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:31 PM ^
Dont forget Mizzou. Much like OSU last year their biggest win was a Georgia loss.
December 1st, 2023 at 7:44 AM ^
Well, for all intents and purposes, after that Big 12 title game Texas is in the SEC. Maybe they could deliver justice to your scenario and still keep to their bias.
December 1st, 2023 at 5:00 AM ^
Roll Tide!
December 1st, 2023 at 7:33 AM ^
Michigan just needs to win. Also, I don’t believe they take SEC out of the Sugar Bowl. If by chance the scenario where SEC is not in CFP, it’ll be FSU v Texas. Rankings will be manipulated to be such.
my predictions:
FSU > Louisville (comeback)
Georgia > Alabama (close)
Texas > OkieSt (not close unfortunately)
Oregon > Washington
Michigan wins
in my CFP predictions: Texas odd team out of CFP. Michigan gets a tough Oregon team in Rose; Georgia v FSU in Sugar.
but we’re talking about rooting… all I care about is Michigan!
December 1st, 2023 at 7:46 AM ^
Yes I agree:
1) MICHIGAN
2) FSU AND Texas
3) Washington
4) Alabama
December 1st, 2023 at 9:22 AM ^
For everyone rooting for Washington because they think Oregon is better/stronger, it's kind of a self-defeating argument if Washington beats them twice in the same year. Playing either in the Rose Bowl on grass is not my ideal scenario.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:58 AM ^
They are both outstanding teams. But Oregon presents the tougher matchup for Michigan.
Washington is built pretty similarly to Ohio State, which is favorable for Michigan because M has been preparing its defense to take on that kind of attack all season. UW does have a better QB and Odunze is comparable to MH2, but OSU has a much tougher defense. Still a tough game, but one that is well within M's wheelhouse.
Oregon's offense is structured more like Maryland's or last year's Purdue team, which are schemes that have given M more difficulty, except Oregon has better athletes. Plus they have a more formidable defense than UW. So this would a bigger challenge that requires M to cope with a style of play they have been less comfortable against.
December 2nd, 2023 at 9:06 AM ^
So, this part is settled. Next.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:23 AM ^
I think the overall chart is plausible. It basically says to me that even if Michigan somehow loses to Iowa, they're a bit above a 50% chance to get into the playoff anyway. And if we win, we're never less than the 2 seed. Seems right.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^
I think Nick Trig's graphic there is interesting, but take some of these outcomes with a grain of salt. Let me point out the most egregious example--
1. Oregon - Texas - Alabama - FSU - Michigan win: he has 1-Michigan, 2-Oregon, 3-Texas, 4-Alabama. Interesting, Florida State is out. I think this is plausible...BUT compare with a scenario where the only change is Michigan loses--
2. Oregon - Texas - Alabama - FSU - Iowa win: he has 1-Oregon, 2-Florida State, 3-Texas, 4-Alabama. I can accept that Michigan is out under that scenario but how in the world does Florida State jump Texas & Alabama by switching only the Michigan/Iowa outcome?
Maybe he is working under the assumption that the committee will never have a semifinal rematch between Alabama and Texas? But no, he has two different scenarios with Texas 2 and Alabama 3.
December 1st, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
To follow up, @KFordRatings has an interesting chart of how he thinks the committee will rank the top 6 teams:
Georgia (with a win) > Michigan (with a win) > Washington (with a win) > Florida State (with a win) > Oregon (with a win) > Texas (with a win) > Alabama (with a win) > Georgia (with a loss) > Michigan (with a loss) > Ohio State > Washington (with a loss) > Florida State (with a loss) > Oregon (with a loss).
This makes a lot of sense to me, more than Trig's. I think Trig was trying too hard to guarantee Alabama makes the playoffs with a win, and was over-rating Texas to accomplish that goal. My one point of disagreement is that as long as it doesn't knock FSU out of the playoff, there is a good chance that Oregon-with-a-win is ranked ahead of FSU-with-a-win.
December 1st, 2023 at 2:13 PM ^
This makes sense but I think where it breaks down some is that the committee doesn't have to pre-publish any of this. So in Trig's world the committe could do things like say "oh we can't not have an SEC team so let's leave FSU out" in one scenario where before hand if they had to lay it out before hand they'd likely follow that same logic.
I think this chart (from here https://topdan.com/college-football-conference-records/2023.html) makes it pretty clear that based on the limited number of cross conference games available neither the SEC or B1G has a lot of claim to really being able to say that it's clear that the SEC or B1G are clearly stronger THIS year (if anything the PAC10 should be the ones getting extra consideration). Of course SEC homers will point to years past and their success in the playoff while ignoring TX beating Alabama on the road.
(sorry in advance if this doesn't embed well)
December 1st, 2023 at 1:51 PM ^
Does Michigan also do Alabama drills like they have practiced Georgia drills?
December 1st, 2023 at 4:16 PM ^
If we are truly good enough to be champions then it should not matter who we play. Just win. I guarantee you this is the dynamic inside schembechler hall.
December 1st, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^
If reading this correctly, does an Oregon win eliminate Ohio state ?
December 1st, 2023 at 5:02 PM ^
Looks that way according to this chart.
December 1st, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
I very much debate if Michigan fans should root for Bama tomorrow. Why?....
If Bama wins, and the CFP wants to put Bama in the playoff, then Bama must be ahead of Georgia.
Bama lost to Texas. A 12-1, Texas who has won their Big-12 champ game must go ahead of Bama, since Texas defeated Bama, in Alabama.
A Bama win tomorrow could cause the committee to vote like this:
#1 Michigan
#2 Texas
#3 Alabama
#4 Georgia
Good god. The last thing Michigan wants is Georgia in the semi-finals. If Bama wins, it's the only way UM could face GA in the semi-finals. Out of all the teams I dont want to see UM play in the semis is GA.
#GoBlue
#Bet
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