This weekend's slate of action started to clear things up on the Big Ten's Bowl outlook. First the conclusions:

BCS bid: tOSU has it, going to be the Rose Bowl.

2nd BCS bid?
Maybe. Penn St, Iowa, and Wiscy all need to win out and hope that either TCU/Boise St/Ok St slips up.

Who's bowl eligible?
tOSU, Iowa, Penn St, Wiscy, SpartyNO, NW, lolGeauxphers

Who's eliminated?
Indiana, Illinois, Purdue

On the Bubble?
US.

Scenarios:

This really hinges on if we get the 2nd BCS bowl bid. Money issues aside, I'd almost like the Big Ten to NOT get a 2nd BCS team so that we get some favorable matchups in the other bowl games. An extra Big 10 team in the BCS really stacks the decks against us in our other affiliation games.

1) If Big 10 get a 2nd BCS Bid&we're eligible:
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
BCS At-Large: Penn St (arguments sake) v. 'Bama
Capitol One Bowl: Iowa v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Wiscy v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: SpartyNO v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Mich v. ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Minn v. MAC Champ

2) If Big 10 gets a 2ns BCS Bid & we're not eligible:
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
BCS At-Large: Penn St (arguments sake) v. 'Bama
Capitol One Bowl: Iowa v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Wiscy v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: SpartyNO v. Big 12 #4/5 (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: NW v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: Minn v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: unfilled.

3) If Big 10 does not get a 2nd BCS Bis & we're eligible
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
Capitol One Bowl: Penn St v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Iowa v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: Wiscy v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Sparty NO v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Michigan v. MAC Champ
Looking for a Bowl Game: Minnesota

4) If Big 10 does not get a 2ns BCS Bid & we're not eligible
Rose Bowl: tOSU v Pac-10 champ
Capitol One Bowl: Penn St v SEC #2 (LSU after BCS shakeout)
Outback Bowl: Iowa v. SEC #3 (Ole Miss after BCS shakeout)
Alamo Bowl: Wiscy v. (Oklahoma after BCS shakeout)
Champs Sports Bowl: Sparty NO v.  ACC #4 (Miami FL)
Insight Bowl: NW v. Big 12 #6 (Iowa St?)
Pizza Pizza Bowl: Minnesota v. MAC Champ

Looking at the matchups, I would predict for each scenario the Big Ten team would be favored in:
Scenario 1: 3/8 games (Wiscy, NW, Minn)
Scenario 2: 2/8 games, maybe-- Minn v Iowa St would be a pick 'em (Wiscy, Minn)
Scenario 3: 5/8 games if Minnesota lands in a favorable matchup (Iowa, Wiscy, NW, Mich, Minn)
Scenario 4: 4/7 games (Iowa, Wiscy, NW, Minn)

So based on the criteria of good for the Big 10, I would say Scenario 3, 8 teams in (including us) and probably 5 games we'd be favored in. Compare that to Doomsday Scenario 2 where we're looking at 1-2 favorites of all our matchups.

Question: In Scenario 1, why do you have Michigan in the Champs Sports Bowl, but in Scenario 3 we're in the Pizza Pizza? What gives?

Answer: I'm assuming that in Scenario 1, the bowl pickers are going to go primarily based on record except that Champs will opt for the sexier Michigan v Miami game rather than NW v Miami. I think we beat Minnesota and NW in terms of bowl game sexy for sure, even if NW has 1-2 more wins than us. However, in Scenario 3, a MSU v Miami game might be just as attractive as us v 'Canes. I think its a toss up between us/MSU in the Champs Sports and the other in the Pizza Pizza Bowl. Regardless, I think the Insight takes the potentially 8 win NW team over either 6-win Michigan based team, and Pizza Pizza would be happier than hell to have either big name in-state school inthe bowl game.

There's still a lot of flexibility and some upsets this weekend (MSU over Penn St, NW over Wiscy, Minn over Iowa) will have potential to drastically change this up. The big question is whether we're going to get bowl eligible. If we do, I think a bowl eligible Michigan just coming off a HUGE rivalry win against the Big 10's BCS rep will get us a bump up the bowl pecking order in conference, probably more than we deserve.