Best:  Hanging 100 in Installments

So three years ago Ryan Day didn’t take too kindly to Jim Harbaugh calling him out for breaking an NCAA rule related to on-field instruction and, in classic Ryan Day fashion, apparently didn’t confront Harbaugh at the time but instead waited until he was in a team meeting to say the following:

Michigan better hope for a mercy rule this year because we are going to hang 100 on them.

Now, maybe Day was talking about a scoring total over the rest of his career at Ohio State, but my casual reading of “hang 100 on them” meant you’d score that many points in a single game.  Well, since Day spoke those words Ohio State has scored 27, 23, and 24 points, for a grand total of 74 points.  Over that same period, Michigan has scored 42, 45, and 30 points, for a total of 117 points.  There has been no mercy needed from the Buckeyes, and in fact Michigan has trailed Ohio State for approximately 24 minutes total over the last 180 minutes of game time between these two clubs, and none since halftime of last year’s game.  These have been competitive games, even if the 2021 and 2022 final scores featured greater margins, but Michigan has looked like the better team in each and was the deserving winner.

But the funny thing has been that while UM’s total scoring outputs ballooned a bit, it wasn’t like OSU was stymying the Wolverine offense – in the 4 previous contests Michigan had scored 27, 20, 39, and 27 points, with the 20 points in 2017 requiring John O’Korn throwing 32 times behind a leaky offensive line – but the Buckeyes were dropping 30, 31, 62(!) and 56 (!!) points in contests where Michigan’s defense got progressively more outclassed.  The nadir of this mismatch was probably in 2018 and 2019, when OSU scored a touchdown on 15 of their 23 real drives over those 2 games and rang up over 1,000 total yards of offense, rarely even looking perturbed by Don Brown’s schemes.  Michigan had game plans coming into these contests that worked and got them a reasonable number of points even with a revolving door of middling-to-broken QBs, but the defenses just couldn’t match up to OSU’s refined passing game and overall offensive superiority.  Brian has often talked about these games as a series of escalations and evolutions, where one side makes a change and the other side then has to adapt.  Michigan didn’t adapt for a while as OSU moved from the Urban Meyer speed-smash offense to the aerial one we’ve seen under Day, and now OSU has seemingly not figured out how to take on the multiple, idiosyncratic formations deployed by Baltimore Raven devotees Mike Macdonald and Jesse Minter. 

In this game Ohio State only picked up 378 yards of total offense on 58 plays, far fewer yards than the last couple of meetings (2021 OSU had 458 on 79 plays and in 2022 had 492 on 77 plays) but still an efficient 6.5 ypp.  The issue for OSU, as it has been for 3 years now, is that the distribution of those yards wasn’t particularly efficient.  For example, OSU averaged 4 ypc on 110 yards spread out over 27 non-sack carries, but 49 of those yards and 9 of those carries came on their game-tying drive on their first possession of the second half, which also featured a decent number of holds and a healthy dose of backups in the front 7.  Similarly, McCord picked 271 yards on 30 attempts for a healthy 9 ypa, but he threw 2 costly picks and got 128 of those yards on 4 throws, including 2 on the last drive that ended in a poor throw to Harrison that was picked off by Moore.  And that’s been the M.O. for this defense during this run; they “bend” somewhat without breaking, but they aren’t passive in the way that term is typical applied but instead accept some level of risk in exchange for the long-term effect on the QB of constantly being under siege and questioning what your eyes are registering out there.  C.J. Stroud had good numbers against Michigan but he rarely looked comfortable getting them and was, for him, an inefficient 67% completion and 7.6 ypa with 4 TDs and 2 picks compared to his usual dominance as a passer (70% completion at 10.1 ypa and 81 TDs versus 10 picks over his entire career).  Michigan’s defense took some chances and OSU made them pay, such as trying to match up Jimmy Rolder on Cade Stover with predictable results.  But usually even McCord’s completions came under duress, including a bomb to an interfered-with Harrison that was the longest play of the game for either team and another long throw to Harrison late.  McCord did his best holding up but he never really looked comfortable out there, and so that put pressure on his receivers and coaches to “buy” him yards via individual effort and schemes, and that clearly wasn’t enough.

Michigan’s raw pressure numbers in this game really won’t blow you away – 1 sack for 3 yards – but for the third year in a row they made the plays when they needed them, from the 2 picks to the 4 pass breakups to the criminally under-counted 1 QB hurry.  There’s no defense in the world that’ll completely stop an offense with Marvin Harrison Jr., Emeka Egbuka, Cade Stover, and TreVeyon Henderson at the still positions, but Michigan’s defense has evolved into a unit capable of slowing them down, to making them have to sweat and grind their way to those 24-ish points per game in a way few other teams in the country can, and that’s why Ryan Day’s ledger is still red despite having 3 Black Fridays to try to pay off the debt his mouth tried to cash.

 

Best:  The New Normal

In 2021 I wrote what was the first diary following a win in this series, and that how and when Michigan won were so important:

I wrote this in 2019 and it held true all last year as well – there wasn’t some magic bullet, some once-in-a-generation hire who could “save” Michigan because salvation wasn’t what Michigan needed.  They just needed a break, a chance to break through.  That was what made the early Harbaugh years so draining – they had some chances, some opportunities to make this a rivalry in more than an historical sense once again.  Do I think this win over OSU will upset the pecking order in college football going forward?  No, because college football isn’t a land of heroes and villains, where good triumphs over evil in a splashy, cinematic battle.  Teams like Alabama, Ohio State, Georgia and the rest operate at their level because of recruiting, player development, and culture that doesn’t disappear because of a loss on a snowy Saturday in November.  But maybe THIS game, in THIS season, coming as it did after the tumultuous 2020 season necessitated a reevaluation of the program and staff by Harbaugh and the University, portends Michigan’s arrival into that upper tier of college football once again.  One’s stay in that spot is always ephemeral (ask Clemson, Oklahoma, FSU, etc. about it), but Michigan has every right and ability to stick around a while, to make most season-ending matchups with the Buckeyes de-facto conference championship games.

But in my heart-of-hearts I still sort of felt like this was a one-off, a confluence of events featuring two NFL-level edges, optimal weather conditions, and random numbers finally going in Michigan’s direction.  It didn’t mean Michigan was destined for another decade-long drought in this series, but I wasn’t quite sure if this win as a proof-of-concept or just a defective unit on the assembly line of ass-kickings.  And then in 2022 I noted that going into Columbus and beating OSU how they did meant so much more because it showed true weakness in the Buckeyes and the mythos Jim Tressel and Urban Meyer had built around them:

The biggest takeaway from this game, beyond the final score, beyond the 2-game winning streak in the series, beyond HOW these past two games have gone, is that whatever mythos that existed around the Ohio State Buckeyes as a team and program has evaporated into the ether. And it didn’t evaporate slowly, like a glass of water left out on the porch during the summer.  No, it was flash-boiled like you dropped that glass on the surface of the Sun, and it all happened about when Donovan Edwards ran basically untouched for the second of two 75+ yard TD runs in the span of about 4 minutes and choo-choo’ed the Buckeye faithful into their late-afternoon festivities.

So take this next paragraph with a huge grain of salt, but Michigan winning THIS game based on how the last month has gone, and how they did it and with everything on the line, signals a new normal in this rivalry.  Now, that doesn’t Michigan is going to keep beating OSU; Ohio State is too talented and college football too wonky for domination to set in between teams of this caliber.  But whatever deal with the devil Tressel and Meyer made to start this dominant run, however many sold memorabilia and domestic violence instances they had to turn a blind eye to in order to win on the field, has been paid in full and Michigan’s got the receipts.

Michigan was the aggressor throughout, the one that wasn’t afraid to take risks on 4th down, the one that delivered the big hits and ran toward the big moments and not away from them.  They played loose yet focused, and while I’m sure they wouldn’t admit it at the time, they knew there was immense pressure on them to silence all the talking heads who have latched onto the idea that they only beat OSU these past 2 years because Connor Stalions looked at some iPhone videos and figured out OSU was going to throw on 3rd-and-2.  On top of all that, with the expanded playoffs this game was going to lose a bit of that winner-take-all/loser-goes-home edge because more often than not these teams will be some of the best in the country.  This game, as much as any I’ve seen in my decades as a Michigan, will redefine this rivalry going forward, an example of how one team can drag, scratch, and claw their way back into a race that a bunch of us had thought was over years ago. 

Because that’s the thing with OSU – they aren’t quite a juggernaut anymore but they’re still really good.  Yes, their defensive line isn’t throwing 4-5 first rounders at you and their QBs aren’t immediate superstars, but their receivers are still stupendous, their secondary coaches have seemingly figured out you have teach guys technique as well as just hoping they’re fast, and there’s little reason to believe the Buckeyes are going to be dislodged by any of the new members to this league.  They’re a step back from their apex under Urban Meyer, but it’s still a pretty small step back, one that would be largely impermissible to anyone who is only casually watching them.  No, Michigan has reset the bar in this rivalry back to equals, to two teams that can lay claim to the title of best in the country any time they step onto the field.  And this year Michigan yet again showed why they deserve that moniker.

 

Best:  Moore Than a Feeling

Sherrone Moore isn’t going to be considered for Coach of the Year in the Big 10 for a number of reasons, and probably wouldn’t win anyway because of the Herculean effort put forth by David Braun to turn the wreckage left behind by Pat Fitzgerald in Evanston into a 7-5 outfit that was one stupid game against Iowa from being in Indianapolis this weekend.  But by God did he show why he’s likely to be the head man at a P5 program next year with his performance these past 3 weekends.  I’ll save you the rehash around the “why” but “how” Moore managed this team over the past 3 weeks will go down in Michigan lore as one of the best coaching performance we’ve ever seen, as hyperbolic as that statement may seem in the moment.  With basically 12-ish hours notice before playing against one of the best defenses in the country on the road, Moore masterfully called a controlled game plan that adapted quickly to some real issues in pass blocking and allowed Michigan to pound their way around, over, and thru the Nittany Lions defense.  The next weekend, again with little warning about his role as head man and with the added surprise of losing his linebackers coach a day earlier, he took down a feisty Maryland team on the road that desperately wanted to upset the Wolverines.  And his reward for surviving that gauntlet?  A date with Ohio State, the #2 team in the country, led by the coach who allegedly was the impetus behind the private investigation that threw this season into turmoil and who definitely knew he had to win this game to save his legacy.  And if that wasn’t enough, he also lost his best offensive and defensive players for much of the second half of this game.

But despite all those roadblocks, he coached like a seasoned pro virtually all game, successfully converting all 3 4th-down situations with great calls while letting Ryan Day make the small mistakes like running the clock down to end the half before icing OSU’s kicker with his own timeout.  And he wasn’t afraid to get creative with his playcalls, whether it be rolling out Orji for a couple of runs to start the second half or dialing up a Donovan Edwards throw to Loveland that set up another FG.  And when it came to that final drive after OSU had pulled to within 3, he burned 7 minutes off the clock with maybe the definitive drive of the year for this team, one that featured big throws by J.J. McCarthy mixed with bruising runs by Edwards and Corum, all without Zinter helping to clear the path.  It ended in a short field goal, and OSU had little time and no timeouts to mount a game-winning drive.

While I get some people wishing Moore had been a bit more aggressive and tried to close the game out with a first down instead of giving OSU a minute to score, trusting in your defense and giving them a bit of a cushion is what good head coaches do.  And Moore’s still an offensive line coach at heart, and so when push comes to shove he’s going to trust in his offense to get those yards on the ground moreso than in the air.  That’s probably a bit of a blindspot but one I suspect will be ironed out with more experience as the top man for a program.  But regardless, Sherrone Moore just put together a three-game stretch that, frankly, is more impressive than a lot of resumes you see from guys running big-time programs right now. 

 

Best:  Trust

I generally like Alex Kirshner’s takes on college football, even when I feel they can get a bit simplistic.  But I saw this comment from him during the game and I honestly thought it was maybe a draft from 2-3 weeks ago that just snuck out unintentionally.

I assume this came about because Michigan decided to run the ball on 3rd-and-6 on their last real drive of the game, when a first down effectively ices the game.  As I mentioned earlier I think more of the playcalling comes from Moore’s proclivities as a former offensive lineman than it does any indictment of McCarthy’s abilities, but it’s sort of crazy to make this statement when on that same drive he threw this ball to Johnson and earlier in the game threw darts like this one as well as this laser to Wilson.  On the day McCarthy was 16/20 for 148 yards and a TD as well as 4 runs for 22 yards, and in the second half was 8/9 for 63 yards as well as a 15-yard scramble.  He never panicked, never really made a bad throw (we can quibble about that Wilson throw but it was in stride), and played exactly like what you need to win a title.

What gets me about this type of criticism, not so much from Kirshner but the more general “numbers” crowd, is that it assumes the only way a QB can be good is if he is throwing for a bunch of yards and “making plays” in a very narrow definition of that term.  I think Jayden Daniels is a really good college QB and if Bo Nix or Michael Penix don’t win the Heisman it’ll probably be his award but all three of those guys looked like busts for various stretches of their careers before playing in a certain type of offense that suddenly turns them into create-a-player dreams.  Yes, they had all shown flashes of promise at their previous stops but even at their bests none looked like world-beaters, and yet once they start throwing 4 TDs a game all the smart analytics go out the window and it’s all about them home runs.

That isn’t to take away from them but it’s been weird to see people pick on McCarthy throwing two bad balls against Maryland when little seemed to be made of Michael Penix trying to throw a pick at least 3 times against Washington St. on UW’s game-winning drive, or Jalen Milroe wandering across the line of scrimmage, sorta retreating, and then throwing an hilariously illegal forward pass.  This isn’t meant to denigrate those guys and their accomplishments but simply point out that no matter how much we profess as informed fans to look beyond the raw numbers are more into the context of them, we inevitably get caught up in the big shiny numbers and not the greater elements at play.  In a season where 5 different people were head coaches for this team, McCarthy was a constant for this offense that is currently #9 per SP+ and has had to deal with instability on the offensive line and a (for Michigan) mediocre running game. 

I don’t know if McCarthy is going to get invited to NYC; my guess is he won’t, or if he does it’ll be in the ceremonial “his team is good so we’ve gotta take one of them” spot.  But beyond his on-field performance he’s been one of the best players in college football for all the gooey intangibles that don’t show up on the stat sheet but do show up in the wins column, and this team absolutely will go as far as he’s able to take them.

 

Worst:  The Z Man

Zak Zinter’s college career-ending injury was as bad as it looked in the moment, and it sucks to see a guy turn down NFL money for another shot at a college title only for it to end like it did in this game.  While I assume he’ll recover and be able to continue playing in the NFL, I’d be foolish to assume this won’t cost him at least money, if not some level of success, going forward just because of the uncertainty surrounding that type of recovery.  But beyond that, and it feels callous to talk in these terms, but his injury is going to have deep ripple effects for this team’s ability to compete for a title this postseason.  Michigan’s already had issues at tackle, with Hinton seemingly also done for the year and Henderson and Barnhart struggling at times in pass protection.  Zinter, along with Nugent and Keegan, were the bulwarks of the interior line, the tip of the spear for a running game that struggled with consistency but could typically move the pile a couple of yards when they needed to.  Without him you’ve got guys moving down (Barnhart, I believe, is the fill-in for Zinter going forward with Trente Jones taking over at tackle) and even less depth going into some high-pressure games.  Again, in the grand scheme of things Michigan having to dig into their loaded depth chart pales in comparison to Zinter’s situation, but the cruel arithmetic around college football is that his absence hurts both him and this team in a way that few other injuries would have.

 

Best:  Toughness

Now, I think Ohio State is a perfectly tough team, and the way their defense stiffened for long stretches in this game while Kyle McCord hung in there after some early struggles shouldn’t be overlooked.  These players aren’t weak-willed or “soft” or whatever other insults we like to throw their way.  But I think Roman Wilson distilled it quite well after the game.

And you saw it throughout the contest.  Cornelius Johnson picked up a crucial third down in the 4th when he dislodged an OSU corner and came back for the ball.  Will Johnson got his pick because he ran the route Harrison was walking.  OSU had that one thudding drive to start the second half that looked like an old Urban Meyer, or a recent vintage UM one, but it was merely a mirage.  Michigan played with an edge, a mental and physical focus, that OSU simply couldn't sustain all game, and that's as much of a reason why they left with a win as any schematic or player advantage.   

Quick Hits:

• Hidden amongst the various stats and storylines in this game are two numbers:  52 and 37.  Those are the average punt distances for Tommy Doman and Jesse Mirco, OSU’s punter.  Doman consistently flipped the field on his three punts, and along with Will Johnson’s pick manifested in OSU’s average field position being their own 23 while Michigan was their own 32.  Starting 8 yards closer per drive in a game where one side missed a 52-yard FG while the other nailed one from 50, for example, are those little advantages a team needs to win these types of games.  Credit to Doman and the rest of the special teams for their efforts.

• I poked at Ryan Day but I actually didn’t think he was wrong to try to kick a FG to end the half on 4th down.  There wasn’t much time left and I believe they had 1 TO due to some earlier miscues.  OSU was fighting the clock as much as UM’s defense, and in a game that was 14-10 getting 3 points there would have been huge.  Now, the fact he keeps thinking his kickers can connect from career-long distances in high-pressure spots is still befuddling but that’s a discussion for a different time.

• As it relates to the Roman Wilson “controversial” catch, if they had called it an incompletion on the field at the time I would have been somewhat surprised to see them overturn it (mostly because refs despise having to admit they were initially wrong), but both in the moment and on replay it was clear Wilson had the ball, took multiple steps into the endzone, and the fact he was fighting with Burke the whole way doesn’t really change it.  That’s good effort out of the DB but wresting away a ball once the receiver has hit the ground and is starting to celebrate doesn’t eliminate the fact you got beat. 

• The refs swallowed their whistles a bit which is fine, I guess, but it’s still jarring to see Mason Graham be dragged down by 2 guys and Jaylen Harrell fight thru an OSU guard grabbing his arm as he fell down and for both of those plays resulting in Michigan getting the penalty (though to be fair the Harrell penalty was for taking his helmet off). 

• I don’t usually care too deeply about what rival fans say online but the past couple of weeks have redefined my appreciation for the novel trash talking UM fans do online versus whatever OSU fans think they’re doing on that front.  I’ll save you the links but trying to engage with them beyond “blue team bad, red team good” is an exercise in trying to teach a dog a new trick and that “trick” is to not shit all over the house.  I’ve had debates about how numbers work, about how getting signs from cell phone video is an insurmountable advantage while getting them from a friend doesn’t change the odds of success one bit, and that the FBI is going to arrest every Michigan coach and bomb the program back into the stone age if only Mike Pence has the courage to do the right thing.  And then after the loss, they just try to smug their way through it because they really hadn’t contemplated a world where maybe OSU just wasn’t going to win, that Ryan Day’s great plan to call in every favor under the sun to dislodge this M-shaped thorn in their collective side was going to end in yet another defeat.  And so when I hear people calling UM’s fanbase arrogant, I always wonder if those people have ever tried interacting with the Buckeye faithful.

 

Next Week:  Iowa

So yeah, it’s happening again.  This Iowa team is somehow event worse offensively than that outfit, and the early line was 21.5 with an O/U of 34.5.  Iowa has continually redefined what is a believable under in college football games, but that feels about right.  Michigan will likely win comfortably but this is absolutely a game where I could see the Wolverines win 30-3 or something like that.  But I’ll watch every minute just so that I can see a returning Harbaugh maybe Connor Cook-ing Tony Petitti when that asshole is forced to award Michigan yet another Big 10 title.  Go Blue!