A lot of UM fans point to WV’s record in 2002 vs 2001 as evidence of what will be a banner year in 2009 at UM. But looking at that WV schedule in 2002, some interesting points come out.  First here is WV schedule in 2002 and the record of their opponents 
Chattanooga W56-7 (2-10) 
at Wisconsin L34-17 (8-6) 
at Cincinnati W 35-32 (7-7) 
East Carolina W37-17 (4-8) 
Maryland L48-17 (11-3) finished AP 13 
at Rutgers W40-0 (1-11) 
Syracuse W34-7 (4-8) 
Miami L40-23 (12-1) finished AP 2 
at Temple W46-20 (4-8) 
Boston College W24-14 (9-4) 
at Virginia Tech W21-18 (10-4) finished AP 18 
at Pittsburgh W24-17 (9-4) finished AP 19 
vs. Virginia L48-22 (9-5) finished AP 22 

Okay so your probably saying so what, they went 9-4 and finished the season ranked 25th in the AP. The thing that interested me the most was that they played 8 teams with records above .500, splitting them with 4 wins and 4 losses. Other than the Cincinnati game, the wins came after the week 10 win over BC who was 5-4 coming into the game. The better play at the end of the year isn’t that surprising when you consider RR was in the 2nd season of bringing in his system to WV; you would expect the team to continue to get better the more they play. The same could be said of last year’s UM team as well.  
So now looking at UM’s schedule for 2009, and using Phil Steele’s preseason rankings of the post season this is how I think it will work out. Steele is beyond the most accurate, don’t get mad if you don’t agree with his rankings but I expect someone will anyway. 
WMU =.500 
Notre Dame >.500 
Eastern <.500 
Indiana <.500 
at MSU >.500  
at Iowa >.500  
Delaware State <.500 
Penn State >.500 
at Illinois >.500 
Purdue <.500 
at Wisconsin >.500 
Ohio State >.500 

So taking Steele’s ranking and accuracy at such things into account that would mean RR would be facing about 7 teams above .500 (including WMU) in 2009. This schedule is not as back loaded as WV’s was back in 2002. In the first 9 games UM would be facing 6 teams looking to go +.500 as opposed to only 4 at WV. Following this one past season example it would be reasonable to expect 2 more losses than WVs 2002 record of 6-3 to bring UM’s 2009 record to 4 -5 at the end of week 9. That leaves 3 games left in the regular season that again if you follow history would indicate 3 wins leaving a successful? season at 7-5. 

Obviously you can’t take this as THE answer to how UM will perform in 2009 solely on WV’s success/failures back in 2002. So using this as a platform to build off of I would make the following substitutions. 
    --I would remove the win vs. OSU, the emotions that go through the players during this game and the difference in experience levels between the two teams will be too much for UM to overcome. (overall season 6-6) 
    --I would add a win in the first 9 games, because of the increased level of talent, the additional time in the weight room (though that should be a wash since Barwis was at both schools) and another year in RR’s system. (overall season 7-6) 
    --Then I would remove a win because of all the distractions from the off season, the whole playing time crap, having 3 QB’s set to play in the first game (I know Tate is the “starter” but they’re all set to play), a new DC, and the lack of good depth on defense. (overall season back to 6-6) 
    --The wild card game in my opinion will be the Illinois game which I have down as a would be loss. IMHO it would be the next likely win, of the losses I have listed. 

So that is my justification for a 6-6 UM team in 2009.