247's "Franchise Player" Recruiting Tag - An Analysis

Submitted by CollegeFootball13 on
Recruiting ratings have been hashed, re-hashed, and hashed again, across all corners of the internet. Some five-star recruits end up being busts, and some unrated walk-ons turn into All-Americans. But there's one recruiting distinction that intrigued me, so I decided to take a deeper look into the coveted "Franchise Player" rating on 247.
 
Since 247Sports started keeping their own recruiting rankings in 2010, there have been 7 players with a rating of over 100 on the site. According to the 247 Rating Explanation, any player with a rating of over 100 is considered a "Franchise Player", and continues it's description with "one of the best players to come along in years, if not decades. Odds of having a player in this category every year is slim. This prospect has 'can’t miss' talent."
 
In the class of 2016, Rashan Gary is the only player to fall into this category.
 
So how does 247's assessment of "can't miss talent", or "one of the best players to come along in years" grade out with previous players who have earned this distinction?
 
Here's a rundown of every player who's ever had a rating of over 100 with 247, and if the "Franchise Player" distinction ultimately turned out to be correct.. at least so far.
 
---
 
Class of 2010 - Zero Players Graded Over 100
 
 
Class of 2011 - Two Players Graded Over 100
 
---Jadeveon Clowney - WDE, Committed to South Carolina - Grade: 105---
(Highest 247 Rating Ever)
 
 
Accolades:
SEC Freshman of the Year (2011)
First Team Freshman All-America (2011)
Second Team All-SEC (2011)
Hendricks Award Winner (2012)
Unanimous All-American (2012)
SEC Defensive POTY (2012)
6th Place in Heisman Voting (2012)
2x First-team All-SEC (2012, 2013)
First Team All-American (2013)
First Pick Overall in the 2014 NFL Draft, Houston Texans
Currently has 42 Tackles, 4.5 Sacks, 1 Forced Fumble, and 4 Pass Deflections in the NFL
 
---Cyrus Kouandijo - OT, Committed to Alabama - Grade: 102---
 
 
Accolades:
Consensus All American (2013)
First Team All-SEC (2013)
BCS National Champion (2012, 2013)
SEC Champion (2012)
Second Round Pick (44th Overall) in 2014 NFL Draft, Buffalo Bills
Played in one game so far in the NFL
 
Class of 2012 - Zero Players Graded Over 100
 
 
Class of 2013 - One Player Graded Over 100
 
---Robert Nkemdiche - SDE, Committed to Ole Miss - Grade: 101---
 
 
Accolades:
Freshman All-SEC (2013)
First Team Freshman All American (2013)
Lombardi Award Semifinalist (2014)
Second Team All American (2014, 2015)
All-SEC First Team (2014, 2015)
Paul Hornung Finalist (2015) [First DL finalist ever for the award]
Declared for NFL Draft after Junior Year, projected first rounder
 
Class of 2014 - Two Players Graded Over 100
 
---Leonard Fournette - RB, Committed to LSU - Grade: 101---
 
 
Accolades:
First Team All-SEC Freshman (2014)
First Team All-SEC (2014)
Maxwell Award Semi-Finalist (2015)
Doak Walker Finalist (2015)
Consensus First Team All-American (2015)
Sophomore Year Stats (so far): 11 Games, 271att, 1,741yds, 18 TDs, 158.3YPG
 
---Myles Garrett - WDE, Committed to A&M - Grade: 101---
 
 
Accolades:
Consensus Freshman All-SEC (2014)
Consensus Freshman All-American (2014)
Second Team All-SEC (2014)
SEC Freshman Record 11.5 Sacks (2014)
Led Team in Sacks (11.5), TFL (14), and QB Hurries (9), also had 53 tackles (2014)
Team Defensive MVP (2014)
First Team All-SEC (2015)
First Team All American (2015)
11.5 Sacks, 56 Tackles, 1 Interception (2015)
 
Class of 2015 - One Player Graded Over 100
 
---Trent Thompson - DT, Committed to Georgia - Grade: 101---
 
 
Accolades:
Named the best true freshman DT in the nation by PFF (2015)
25 Tackles, 0.5 Sacks in 8 Games Played (2015)
 
2016 - One Player Graded Over 100
 
---Rashan Gary - DT, Uncommitted - Grade: 101---
 
---
 
So with the exception of maybe Trent Thompson, who got considerable playing time at an SEC school as a true Freshman and still has the vast majority of his college career ahead of him, 247 has been stellar in their identification of top-end talent. Much moreso than the number of stars that are assigned to a player. 
 
Yes, the sample size of seven players in the last six years is small. Very small, in fact. But that's kind of the point. And based on what we know thus far, if a player falls into this "top tier of the top tier", the "Franchise Player" distinction on 247, chances are they're going to have a special career, wherever they end up.
 
247 doesn't hand out these ratings often, in fact there have been multiple years where not a single player has earned this status. But when one does, they are assuredly a player you should keep an eye on over the course of their career.
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Recruiting

Comments

CollegeFootball13

December 22nd, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^

99.92 was actually his composite score. 247 rated him 100, just under the 'Franchise Player' level.

100's are a lot more common than anything over 100, however. There were three 100's in the class of 2015, and five 99's. The true test, at least so far, appears to be players who can break the scale and end up rated over 100.

Joined: 08/28/2008

MGoPoints: 1916

DingleberryFinn.

December 22nd, 2015 at 2:18 PM ^

Cyrus Kouandijo. I can't fathom how this guy isn't a pro-bowl level player yet.

 

I expected him to thrive at either guard position at the next level, although I think he's still stuck at RT.

Joined: 04/22/2009

MGoPoints: 2517

Vivz

December 22nd, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^

When possible I just noted draft rd, or a quick note.

2016
101-Gary
100-None

2015
101- Trent Thompson (See above)
100-
Martez Ivey--Florida---SEC all freshmen team
Kahlil McKenzie--Tennessee--Played in 12 games as Freshman
Derwin James---FSU- played in 11 games as Freshman

2014
101- Myles Garret and Leonard Fournette (See above
100-
Cameron Robinson--Bama, is OL but no news
Jabrill Peppers--The Hybrid Space Player
Kyle Allen--Transferring from TAMU, on and off starter
Speedy Noil--TAMU starred as Freshman, regressed this year and currently suspended for bowl.
Da'Shawn Hand--Bama, played in 22 games on a deep Bama team, not yet starting.

2013
101- Nkemdiche (See above)
100-
Chris Jones--Missippi State- proj 2nd or 3rd rounder
Laremy Tunsil--Ole Miss proj 1st rounder
Vernon Hargreaves--Florida proj 1st rounder
Jaylon Smith--ND proj 1st rounder
Eddie Vanderdoes--UCLA--Tore ACL this year still proj rd 3-4 of draft
Christian Hacknberg--PSU-well documented here, will be drafted
Dorian Johnson--PITT, moved to Guard,2nd Team ACC this year projected mid rd 2017 draft

2012
100-
Mario Edwards (2nd rd Raiders)
Dorial Green Beckham (2nd rd Titans)
Landon Collins (2nd rd Giants)
Arik Armstead (1st rd 49ers)

2011
105-Clowney (See above)
102-Kouandij0 (See above
100-
Timmy Jernigan (2nd rd Ravens)
La'el Collins (Undrafted-off field issues but Active Cowboy and was projected first round pick)

2010
100-
Ronald Powell (5th rd Saints)
Robert Woods (2nd rd Bills)
Sharrif Floyd (1st rd Vikings)
Dominque Easley (1st rd Patriots)

Joined: 12/14/2010

MGoPoints: 1213

CollegeFootball13

December 22nd, 2015 at 3:44 PM ^

Very interesting, thanks for extending this to 100's as well. Definitely not quite as consistent as 101+, but seems like quite a few of them have solid college careers and are drafted in early rounds.

It would appear at the very highest ratings (let's say 100 or higher) that a successful college career and being drafted into the NFL is very likely.

Recruiting rankings obviously aren't always indicative of how a player will perform in college, but there's definitely an upper-echelon where you can be very confident that they'll be a star.

Joined: 08/28/2008

MGoPoints: 1916

Vivz

December 22nd, 2015 at 5:21 PM ^

I'm not sure how I feel about what this means.  Looking at 2010, 2011 and 2012 I added 10 names. All are in the NFL, with all but Collins and Ronald Powell being 1st or 2nd round picks. I can't say any of them are busts. 2013s class has everyone projected into the NFL.

However you look at it making the NFL is a major accomplishment, but when you are the best of the best is that enough? I never remember how a site grades or defines a player, but Is Hackenburg a bust? He is going to the NFL, but I can't help but feel underwhelmed at times (This may just be Franklin/OL problems but he gets some blame too).

2014 is where it may just be too soon to tell. A year ago at this time Jabrill Peppers was a lot of hype who had played in 4 total games. Da'Shawn Hand has played in 22 games at bama and an OL that hasn't cracked the rotation at Bama are the closest to being "Busts"

2015 has 3 true freshmen who saw major game action. 

To me this list looks to indicate a certain freakish athlete and potential. This has the NFL drooling regardless of performance. I'm grasping at straws to find complaints about 2/31 people. 

Joined: 12/14/2010

MGoPoints: 1213