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WTKA Roundtable 12/9/2021: Maybe He Had the Flu Comment Count

Seth December 9th, 2021 at 12:20 PM

Things discussed:

  • Iowa: Michigan’s first two scores made them big chip leader as Iowa’s best shot was to go up 10-0 and then Iowa you to death.
  • There was a long stretch of Iowa in there.
  • They had no answer for Aidan Hutchinson, so they folded: one time they ran a two-man route! Hutch Thayer Munson’d another guy.
  • Poaching Michigan’s coaches? The cycle is mostly complete: Playoffs and early signing period forced hands to move in December. Gattis is our most eligible bachelor, but if BT and UVA are filled now, it’s really up to what happens at Oregon, who should just promote Moorhead. Unless Wake opens up Gattis might be able to stick around for an Oklahoma-like job.
  • Georgia: Their offense isn’t inept but it’s not gangbusters. Their defense is and I come clean that I really do like their front seven and that Michigan has to throw downfield to score on them. Nobody believes me about their linebackers: they’re good folks.
  • Also I don’t take the bait from a reader who wants me to rip on Kirby Smart. I don’t like him, but he’s a good coach.
  • JJ McCarthy is as fast as Blake Corum.
  • Why is the line moving towards Georgia? The South? UGA hasn’t really beaten a good team this year.
  • OSU’s new DC: We’re not enthralled. He ran a good defensive system to beat the Big XII. He’ll be better than Kerry Coombs, or trying to scrap together a Quarters defense after they benched Coombs.
  • Notre Dame/Marcus Freeman: right move, higher ceiling than Brian Kelly, because nobody likes Brian Kelly. Fickell would have meant blowing up the recruiting class and waiting for the end of the playoffs. Held that coaching staff together too.
  • Cristobal going to Miami to play for 15,000 people: crazy. Joe Brady?

[Hit the JUMP for the player, and video and stuff]

You can catch the entire episode on Michigan Insider's podcast stream.

Segment two is available here. And you can watch the video here:

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Comments

MGolem

December 9th, 2021 at 12:47 PM ^

I assume you mean Thayer Munford’d not Munson’d but I also believe the play you are referring to was against Petit Frere. Who was somehow still named first team All American…okay. 

Joined: 10/14/2010

MGoPoints: 13595

Blue Vet

December 9th, 2021 at 12:48 PM ^

Sam! I didn't recognize you without your hat. I didn't even know you HAD a top to your head. For all I knew, it was just lighting sparks & rainbow bubbles & shooting stars under that hat.

Joined: 05/08/2012

MGoPoints: 71307

victors2000

December 9th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^

I got two reasons the line has moved towards Georgia.

One, When Sam was on the SEC network he pretty much guaranteed a Michigan win . With attitude.

Two, Aiden won the Lombardi over Georgia's Davis who wasn't even selected as a finalist.

Joined: 03/21/2009

MGoPoints: 12914

mtzlblk

December 9th, 2021 at 1:29 PM ^

Doesn't the line shift based on where the $ is being bet to try and get even money on both sides of the wager?

I think this would signal that more people were taking M at the earlier line and therefore they pushed it, but I'm far from any kind of expert. 

Joined: 01/20/2009

MGoPoints: 5019

mgoecon

December 9th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^

I think your first part is correct - the lines tend to change in order to get 50/50 split of bets against/in-favor of Michigan.

I think you’ve got the second part backwards though. If it started out at Michigan +8 and it’s moved to a Michigan +9.5, it means more people are betting on Georgia: the line has moved to make betting on Michigan to be more appealing, reflecting that they want more bets in favor of Michigan compared to reactions to the original line.

Joined: 04/16/2012

MGoPoints: 99

snarling wolverine

December 9th, 2021 at 8:02 PM ^

That's the popular belief but it's often not true.  95% of the betting for the OSU game was in their favor, yet the line moved towards us anyway.  The key is what the "sharps" are betting on.  They saw reason to go with Michigan over OSU (with reason!) and apparently they see something in Georgia now . . . not sure what.

Joined: 12/14/2011

MGoPoints: 98374

L'Carpetron Do…

December 9th, 2021 at 2:05 PM ^

What about a read-option flea flicker?  Haskins takes it, reads the linebackers and if there's a hole, runs it. If there's no hole and the LBs crash the gaps and safeties creep up, pitch it back to McNamara. The play would be unstoppable.

I would also like to see a team adopt my patented read QB sneak: If the QB gets stood up at the line, he turns around and pitches to the back who scoots around for a first down. This would look similar to a rugby play called a "maul" - basically a ruck but standing up. This play would also be unstoppable. 

M should adopt more improvisational rugby-style plays that incorporate pitches. I also have a rugby-inspired special teams play for anyone who would like to subscribe to my newsletter. 

Joined: 03/15/2010

MGoPoints: 8572

Carpetbagger

December 9th, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^

Freeman has a higher ceiling than Kelly?? The man has 5 years of DC experience, first at Cinci, now at ND. Co-DC at Purdue. He's never been a head coach.

Yes, he's more personable, that's not exactly hard to do. But to say he has a higher ceiling than a coach that has got ND to the playoffs twice is absurd.

I suppose you could say he's the next Nick Saban, but that would be an evidence-free take.

Joined: 12/31/2010

MGoPoints: 6590