March Madness is going to kick off tomorrow on the men's side, and the women's tournament will get going on Friday. The Michigan women have been announced as a three seed in the Wichita regional, which means that there will be NCAA Tournament games held at Crisler Center for the first time in program history. The games will commence on Saturday and Monday, and so I thought I'd put this post together to get ready for them. First we'll look at the team and their disappointing performance in the B1G Tournament, before previewing the opponents for the weekend and we'll talk about why there are still plenty of reasons for optimism going into the NCAA Tournament. 

The Late Season Skid Hits Indy 

The Michigan Women's team headed into Indianapolis for the Big Ten Women's Basketball Tournament and it didn't go so great. The Wolverines were the #3 seed in the tournament, but drew a team that had haunted them in the regular season, Nebraska, and they weren't able to solve those problems. If there was one bright spot in the game, it was the performance of freshman guard Laila Phelia, who has come on strong for Michigan in the stretch run of the season. She scored 19 points against the Huskers, shooting 6/12 from the floor and knocking down a couple triples: 

Back to back from @Lailaphelia.#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/DdVcPBD5RV

— Michigan Women’s Basketball (@umichwbball) March 5, 2022

Michigan did get more of Leigha Brown in this game, whose injury back on the last day of January set this late season tumble into motion. She came off the bench but did play 26 minutes and managed to score 16 points. That said, she committed five turnovers and still didn't seem to be completely back to 100%. Michigan still tried to force too many passes in to Naz Hillmon in the post, and Hillmon herself had an uncharacteristically poor game. She shot just 5/14 from the floor and committed five turnovers of her own. 

The Wolverines mounted a furious rally before halftime to get themselves back in the game, and it was a tight affair the rest of the way. Michigan led 67-61 with 5.5 minutes to go, and 71-67 with 2.5 minutes left, but Nebraska closed the game on a 9-2 run as Michigan's offense sputtered in crucial moments. It was the second straight game that Michigan was unable to keep up with the perimeter shooting barrage from their opposition, as the Huskers shot 8/17 from three, while Michigan was just 3/12 (Maddie Nolan going 0/4 was another big story). In the end, the Wolverines came up just a few point short in a 76-73 defeat. 

[JD Scott]

It definitely stings to lose out on both the regular season and tournament titles when it seemed so promising at one point, but there were many contributing factors here. Michigan was a sterling 19-2 when Leigha Brown got injured and then finished the season 3-4. We discussed previously how Michigan was jobbed out of the conference title in the regular season because the B1G refused to reschedule the Illinois game (which was going to be an easy win), so it still shouldn't have been the death knell, but the Brown injury really threw things into flux. It forced Michigan to lean too much on Hillmon, and operate in lineups that were unfamiliar. 

A reason for continued optimism about this team as we head into the NCAA Tournament is that it's been another two weeks since the defeat against Nebraska. The B1G Women's Tournament is a week before when most women's conference tournaments take place (because they use the same venue as the men and thus can't overlap), which is a pretty big deal when the central issue plaguing your team is health. Leigha Brown will have gotten 15 additional days to rest and rehabilitate prior to the Wolverines taking the floor on Saturday, and if they can get through this weekend, we're talking about three weeks until Michigan faces a truly marquee opponent in the Sweet 16. Hopefully that's enough time for Brown to be back to 100%. 

Because if she is at 100%, this remains a dangerous team. They got bodied by the one seed in their region (more on that later), but beat the two seed in their region back in December. There's no reason that a fully healthy Michigan can't make the Elite Eight for the first time in program history. It's just a matter of Brown's health and how the team performs around her, because Michigan will also need more from say, Amy Dilk and Danielle Rauch, than they got down the stretch. They probably also need a hotter shooting hand from Maddie Nolan. It will require a team effort but don't count Michigan out yet. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Surveying the bracket]

Possible Sweet 16 rematch? [David Wilcomes]

Looking at the Bracket 

Selection Sunday came and went and now we have ourselves a bracket. As stated previously, Michigan is the three seed in the Wichita Regional. Here's the bracket: 

Louisville is the one, Baylor is the two, and Tennessee is the four. It's a pretty humorous bracket, because Michigan has recent history with all of these teams. They beat Tennessee in the Round of 32 last season, and then faced Baylor in the Sweet 16, not to mention playing Baylor this year. And they played Louisville earlier this year too. Toss in Nebraska as the eight seed and you could basically say that Michigan knows everybody in this regional. I will spare discussion of Michigan's first weekend opponents until the next section, but I will say this doesn't set up as the worst bracket of all time for the Wolverines.

They avoided drawing UCONN as their two seed (Indiana got that painful reality instead), instead getting a two seed that the Wolverines have played very competitive games with before and know they can beat. Moreover, while Louisville crushed Michigan in a humiliating 70-48 loss in the non-conference, Michigan was going to be an underdog against any #1 seed, and at least this one comes with the motivation of trying to right that wrong from early December. 

As for the rest of the bracket and B1G implications, the league ended up being a six bid conference. The B1G got four protected seeds, with Iowa and Indiana on the two line, Michigan as a three, and Maryland as a four. League regular season co-champion Ohio State was given a six seed, and Nebraska slots in as an eight. Michigan State did not make the cut despite being on the distant bubble. Neither of Michigan's other power five non-conference opponents, Oregon State and Mississippi State, made it in the field. 

[Madeline Mortensen/BYU Athletics]

Previewing the Opposition

By getting the three seed, Michigan will be hosting games at Crisler this weekend. BYU, Villanova, Michigan, and American University are the four participants, with the games taking place Saturday afternoon, and then at a TBD time on Monday (side note, but if MBB wins tomorrow, you could have a WBB tourney game, a MBB tourney game, and hockey B1G championship game all on Saturday). As a first note, please buy tickets to these games if you live in the Ann Arbor area. This is the first time in program history that Crisler is a host venue and the women's team deserves the support of the fanbase and ought to have a packed arena for postseason games. 

Secondly, let's take a quick look at the four teams in the regional: 

- American University: The Eagles finished 23-8 on the season, second in the Patriot League but they were able to beat Bucknell in the conference tournament and earn the autobid from that league. American did beat Virginia in the non-conference, which sounds impressive, but then you see that the Cavaliers went 5-22 overall (2-14 in the ACC) and it makes a bit more sense. The only common opponent between American and Michigan is Minnesota, who Michigan beat 73-61 (Minnesota finished 7-11 in B1G play), and American lost to 73-56. That gives you a clear indication that Michigan is the heavy favorite here, but of course, that's to be expected in a 3/14 matchup. 

American is offensively challenged, to put it kindly. The Eagles are averaging just 60.0 points per game as a team this season, which ranks 261st in D1 out of 348 teams. They shoot it okay from the floor as a team (42.2% ranks 83rd), but cannot shoot from three at all, a dismal 27.4% clip that ranks 288th. Turnovers are also a problem for American, at 15.6 per game (174th). As you may expect, they got to the NCAA Tournament because they can really defend, only surrendering 56.0 points per game, which ranks 33rd. It could be an ugly slogfest if Michigan gets dragged into a low-scoring affair, but the Wolverines will have a size advantage, with Emily Kiser being taller than anyone on American's roster. Minnesota put up 73 points on this team, so Michigan should be able to get a comfortable win. 

- BYU: The most likely second round opponent are the Cougars out of the West Coast Conference. BYU won the WCC regular season crown with a 15-1 record in conference play, but were unable to claim the autobid, falling to Gonzaga in the tournament title game. BYU has played plenty of Power 5 teams this season and done quite well in those games, with only three total losses on the season. They beat Arizona State, FSU, Utah, and Wazzu, with a loss to Oklahoma in there. The loss to the Sooners, who got a four seed in the tournament, was in OT too. This is a dangerous team. 

BYU is the opposite of American, a high-powered offense that ranks 11th in points per game, with 77.8. The Cougars shoot 46.7% from the floor (5th) and 33.0% from three (74th), while limiting turnovers to 13 a game. Defensively they hold opponents to just 58.2 points per game, but it is important to remember that there is a quality of competition adjustment needed here, as the WCC is only a two bid league. 5'10" wing Shaylee Gonzalez is the top scorer for the Cougars, and senior guard Paisley Harding also chips in 17 points per game. 6'1" big Lauren Gustin will be the name inside to watch against Kiser and Hillmon, while Tegan Graham shoots 38% from outside as the sharpshooter in the starting lineup. Michigan is likely a better team than BYU, but you can't sleep on this team. 

Maddy Siegrist is a star [Villanova Athletics]

- Villanova: If it's not BYU, then it's Villanova that Michigan would see in the next round. The Wildcats were the second best team in the Big East, but that conference is really UCONN and then everybody else. Case in point, when 'Nova played a healthy UCONN team in the title game of the Big East tourney, it was a 70-40 win for the Huskies. Villanova also has some common opponents with Michigan, as both teams played Maryland and Oregon State. Villanova beat Oregon State by four, while Michigan beat them by nine, but the games against the Terps were more lopsided: MD beat 'Nova by 21, while Michigan swept MD by margins of 20 and 12 points. 

Everything for Villanova revolves around star forward Maddy Siegrist, who is averaging a whopping 25.9 points per game. That's the second highest scoring clip in the country, trailing only Iowa's Caitlyn Clark (Michigan knows her all too well). Siegrist is a dominant presence, snagging over nine boards per game with her 6'1" height, yet also has a perimeter component, shooting 35.9% from three this season too. Siegrist plays next to 6'0" forward Brianna Herlihy, who also snags 8.2 rebounds per game and can step out to shoot 34.1% from three. Villanova is an interesting stretch team, where all eight players who play at least fourteen minutes per game have attempted at least 35 threes this season. Their 737 threes attempted as a team ranks 34th in the NCAA. 

Thus, if there's a path for Villanova to beating BYU and making noise in Ann Arbor, it lies through getting hot from distance. Michigan has been haunted by the opponent knocking down shots from outside in recent games against Nebraska and Iowa, so that is a trouble spot. That said, in comparing BYU to Villanova, I'd still rather play Villanova, because the common opponents suggest Michigan is a clearly better team. Doesn't matter who the Wolverines play though... they should make it through this weekend and into the Sweet 16.