[Ed (Seth): Sometimes Craig Ross writes a thing then asks if anyone wants to publish it. Always I say yes.]

After the firing of UM basketball coach Steve Fisher, Michigan wandered through the Gobi Desert for a decade, not even sniffing an invite to the NCAA championships. In some years, the Wolverines were competitive. In other years, wretched, such as in 2005-06 when Tommy Amaker’s team lost 13 of its last 14 games. In the spring of 2007 AD Bill Martin tapped John Beilein in the attempt to reverse the course in Ann Arbor.

It wasn’t going to be easy. Beilein had been a conference coach of the year at the JC level and at all divisions of the NCAA. He had taken West Virginia---with a 1-15 conference record the year before he was hired—to a 73-31 record in his third through fifth seasons, including two runs in the NCAAs and an N IT Championship. He did this with guys named Gansey and Pittsnoggle and (yes) Beilein, and not those on any NBA radar.

Amaker had left Beilein three pretty good players (Manny Harris, Ekpe Udoh and Peedi Sims), but Beilein’s year one was as bad as any Amaker had endured. The Wolverines finished at 10-22 (5-13 in conference) and were 5-17 in their first 22 games, without a win over a team in the top 130. Insult to injury, Beilein’s team lost to Tommy Amaker’s Harvard team (# 280) by eleven. In Ann Arbor, Bill Martin was being hailed as the king of the flat earth.

Team Zero.

The 2008-09 season looked as hopeless. While Beilein had a maturing Harris and Sims, he had (seemingly) added little to the mix with freshmen Zack Novak and Stu Douglass. Douglass, the # 313 (or lower) recruit in the nation, had an offer from Western. Novak, at # 263 (or lower) was only recruited by home town Valparaiso. But these two brought a toughness and desire to win that was infectious. By the end of the year Beilein turned walk-ons C. J. Lee and David Merritt into the composite of a functional point guard. On the way to the NCAAs Beilein’s team beat UCLA (#10), Duke (#12), Illinois (#25) and Purdue (#18). Michigan defeated Clemson (#23) in the tournament and then lost in an amazingly close game to Blake Griffin and Oklahoma. It seemed, well, Pittsnoggle reinvented.

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Over the next eleven years Michigan would make the NCAAs nine times. In five of the last seven seasons the Wolverines made serious runs in the tournament and complied a 187-73 (72%) record over the period, an average of 27 wins per annum. And, in the main, Beilein accomplished this without highly recruited players. Of the 44 players (I may be off one or two) he brought to the program only nine could be called top 100 recruits. Of these, only Kam Chatman, Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III were nestled inside of the top 40, and Robinson only after he committed to Beilein. Here’s a fact. Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina and Kansas (and usually Michigan State) bring in more top 40 guys in their average year, than Michigan has attracted in the last 12 years. Yet, Michigan has gone toe to toe with these teams.

[After THE JUMP: Back to the Wilderness]

A couple of years ago I asked UM assistant Bacari Alexander about “who makes decisions” about UM recruits. He said “everyone.” When I seemed perplexed by his answer he said “I mean everyone. Coaches, other players, support staff. If a kid comes here and is rude to a secretary there is really good chance we will pass on him.”

Beilein and his staff were able to recognize talent that others could not see. His biggest stars, Trey Burke (# 127, national player of the year, first round pick in the NBA), Tim Hardaway Jr. (# 165, NBA), Nick Stauskus (#106, first round NBA pick) and Caris LeVert (# 239, NBA) were all guys that were passed on by Michigan’s peers and, truly, by teams that have been a lot less successful than the Wolverines.

Beilein toyed with the NBA at the close of the 2018 season. He interviewed for the Pistons job. Orlando may have offered their head coaching job. In the end, Beilein passed, saying that “I love the University of Michigan and I am excited about coaching [UM] for years to come.” Beilein’s salary was bumped half a million to $ 3.8 million per year, perhaps a bit low for his market value but in the top 10 in the country and close to others with similar success. [Tom Izzo is # 3 at about $ 4.2 million. Calipari at Kentucky is # 1 at 9.3 million. But note that Beilein had no buy out, pushing the salary value up.]

The past season was another strong one for Michigan, with the Wolverines winning 30 games and losing to national runner up Texas Tech in the round of 16. By this point, Beilein’s status well exceeded icon level by Michigan fans and, naively, we all (or at least I) thought the 66 year old Beilein would be coaching in Ann Arbor for another half decade, at least. The coach had double bypass surgery in August of 2018 but he presents as healthy and youthful. Certainly, there was nothing indicative of any loss of energy in this past season.

But it seems like something in the past year must have eaten away at the coach since, on May 12, he announced he was taking the Cleveland Cavaliers job. Sam Webb at WTKA, as connected to the Michigan basketball program as anyone, had no inkling this was about to happen. AD Warde Manuel also seemed a bit surprised by the announcement, saying that he was “saddened when John told me this morning of his decision to leave Michigan…” For his part, the coach, with no fanfare, merely thanked the University and fans by twitter.

It seems plausible that Beilein, who has had success at head coaching at every conceivable level of American basketball, wanted a try to rebuild at the highest (and least plausible) level. Cleveland, certainly, poses a challenge since they were one of the worst teams in the NBA last year (19-63 record) and no one in their right minds sees any hope for the “Cadavers” to become a winning team over the next couple of years, absent the Cleveland owner (Dan Gilbert) throwing massive amounts of money on the free agent market. Still, the most plausible explanation for Beilein’s move (it may be that he will continue to have a residence in Ann Arbor) is the challenge, the journey to become singular in the annals of basketball coaching. Beilein was asked whether the recruiting wars or players leaving early (this year, Iggy Brazdeikis and Jordan Poole) had just taken too much of a toll, but he deflected, seeming to deny that was the etiology but not really confronting the current miasma of NCAA basketball recruiting. Brad Stevens, ex-HC at Butler and now with the Celtics, told Beilein that life would be better in the NBA, where coaching and evaluation are the prime job descriptors, as opposed to recruiting and dealing with the problems of teenagers.

Mike Rosenberg at Sports Illustrated is skeptical of the “challenge” notion writing that “the rampant cheating in the sport had to bother Beilein, who is widely considered the cleanest big-name coach in the game.” Plus, Rosenberg speculates that Beilein is, at heart “a teacher…and college basketball is not really a teacher’s sport any more…” with rosters churning to the transfer portals and the NBA or the G League. He concludes “if a sport loses John Beilein, that sport has a problem.”

[Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Beilein’s decision left Warde Manuel in an awkward place, since there isn’t any John Beilein to replace John Beilein, particularly in the month of May when the musical-chair-fantasma of coaching has settled down. Rosenberg suggests that Butler coach and ex-UM assistant LaVall Jordan might have be the closest to the mark that Manuel could entice, but Jordan has a $6M to $ 7M buyout and the Indiana school was hanging tough. UM wasn’t going to pay Butler millions.

At MGoBlog, in a headline that read “If it Ain’t Broke, Don’t Break it,” Brian Cook suggested it might not be all that bad to keep the current staff in place, calling this the “Yak Line,” that Manuel had such an obvious choice facing him in the current staff, that any alternative needed to be plainly better.

I was more emphatic than Brian, arguing that current assistants Saddi Washington and Luke Yaklich, or some combination of the two, were the correct paths to take. Both have learned from Beilein and Beilein would be the first to admit he has learned from his young assistants. Washington has done terrific work in improving the play of Michigan’s big men and Beilein trusted him to run the team on their trip to Spain last year. Yaklich, the “defensive coordinator” continued the work Billy Donlon did three years ago and pulled it over the top. Yaklich made Illinois State a formidable defensive team and Michigan, over the past two years, has been one of the three best defensive teams in the country, with Virginia and Texas Tech. Now, Yak has been hired by Shaka Smart at Texas. Alas.

[Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Two weeks after Beilein’s resignation Manuel exceeded the “Yak Line” (in Cook’s estimation) in the hiring of ex-UM star Juwan Howard. Howard, a part of the Fab Five, played in the NBA for nearly 20 years before starting a career as an assistant coach 6 years ago. He signed the first $ 100M contract in the history of the NBA and was the first NBA player to ever leave school early and still graduate with his class. He earned his Masters degree at Miami (FLA). Howard’s life has been broader than basketball. He has created a foundation for underprivileged children and has been significantly involved with charitable activities since he was at UM. And some fans may be surprised to learn that Howard has done some (bit part) acting, including on the West Wing, a show he helped to produce. I have had one extended conversation with Coach Howard (in Tommy Amaker’s office, many years ago) and can say he is smart, gracious, personable and loves Michigan. For what it is worth, he seemed genuine, a mensch.

Howard, to be paid $ 2M less this year than Beilein, retained Saddi Washington on his staff and hired Phil Martelli, the recently deposed and long-time (24 years) St. Joseph coach, and Howard Eisley, also an NBA player and coaching assistant who played with Jalen Rose in Detroit. In terms of recruiting, this Michigan staff has roots in Chicago (Howard), Miami (Howard), Detroit (Eisley, Washington), Philadelphia and the Eastern Seaboard (Martelli) and outstate Michigan (Washington). They also have roots in the NBA, of interest to most all basketball recruits. But the key for Michigan over the past decade has been evaluation and not the signing of the talents that everyone wants. It seems unlikely, all of a sudden, that Michigan will be able to compete with (say) MSU or Kansas in luring the talent that anyone can discern. Rather, the question is whether Michigan will be able to continue the past of finding players who can fit and work with the structure that the new staff brings. So far, Howard seems more “old school,” throwing scholarship offers at any plausible top 50 guy. But, of course, it is well too soon to tell.

Phil Martelli had no connection to Howard but they hit it off in their conversations. His presence on the staff is important since he will be able to help an NBA assistant coach transition into the rules and strictures of the NCAA. Saddi Washington and retained strength and conditioning coach John Sanderson (aside from their coaching abilities) are important because they retain a tether to the current players and to high school players with whom Michigan is attempting to forge relationships. Even if one (me) could argue for as much of the retention of the status quo as was possible, Howard’s staff seems sensibly constructed.

Right now, no one can really predict how this transition will work out. The truth is that Beilein was a unicorn and it is unreasonable to expect a clone. Howard came into a tough situation since he had only nine certain players for the coming season and only four have had extensive playing time. This is juxtaposed with a fan base that has come to expect very competitive basketball and teams, about every other year, making runs in the NCAAs. Expectations are higher than what is reasonable and these sorts of cauldrons have a way of not working out.

June of a basketball season to open in September is not exactly a great time to fill up a roster. But Howard was able to get a re-commitment from Cole Bajema, a Beilein recruit from Washington State. He was less successful with highly regarded Jalen Wilson----Michigan released him from his letter of intent once Beilein resigned---and Wilson decided on Kansas. Prospective candidate Franz Wagner (Mo’s brother, 17 years old) seemed more likely to stay with Berlin Alba, under such urging by his German coaches, but Wagner decided to come to Ann Arbor this fall. Michigan’s coming season (with 11 scholarships being accounted for) looks like low floor and high ceiling, depending on the evolution of last year’s freshman class. Right now, Michigan could finish second (MSU is better, probably) or ninth, though I lean to the former.

The first tea leaf re: the Howard Era will be what recruiting looks like in 2020. Michigan could have 5 or 6 scholarships to give, including one (Zeb Jackson from Ohio) already committed to Michigan and one the staff will want to retain. In 2019, whether Michigan basketball is starting all over in a new direction, or merely veering slightly to the side of the road, is an unknown.

[Marc-Grégor Campredon]