This Week's Obsession: Surprise Contributor? Comment Count

Seth

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Noooobody expects a Drake Johnson! [Uphchurch]

Scheduling note: Yeah we had one on Monday; that was last week's, pushed back by all the commitments.

Seth: Every year there's at least one guy from down the depth chart who emerges as a major contributor even though we barely talk about him in the season previews. Who's the surprise guy this year?

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Ace: Provided he's healthy when the season starts, and it appears he's on track, I'll go with Khalid Hill. Michigan is going to need a second tight end option after Jake Butt in Jim Harbaugh's offense, and Hill flashed potential last year before he tore his ACL in October. Known as a smooth route-runner with good hands coming out of high school, Hill showed off a somewhat unexpected aspect of his game—bowling over defenders in the running game:

Hill is limited by his size—he's a pure H-back at this point—but he should still prove quite useful as a reliable receiver and very willing blocker.

Alex: I would go with somebody on the defensive line. I'm not sure if Durkin will be as liberal with his defensive line rotations as Hoke/Mattison were (and I don't know if Mattison will be given the leeway to rotate again, which seems like a good bet) but if he is, I think that we could certainly have some breakthrough candidates on the defensive line. There's plenty of opportunity at the end spots—Ojemudia hasn't gotten big enough to be a consistent performer and Charlton still hasn't approached his level of recruiting hype (and potential, theoretically). Glasgow has one DT spot locked down, and Willie Henry seems to have a stranglehold on the other.

But if he can get on the field, my surprise performer is Maurice Hurst. He has a lightning-quick first step for a man his size and if we can get him to generate pass rush from the DT position, that will allay one of our biggest prospective weaknesses on that side of the ball. Mone, Wormley, and Poggi (who's a SDE) could all also be huge surprises as well.

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Adam: I also think we're going to be surprised by one of the tight ends, but my choice is Ian Bunting. We know about Harbaugh's affinity for blocky/catchy guys, and Bunting's well on his way to being one. He put on 16 pounds over the winter, bringing him to a respectable (and much more in line with the rest of his position group) 243 pounds. At that weight he should be able to line up, put a hand in the dirt, and not tip off a pass play.

The catching part of being a blocky/catchy guy was never going to be a problem for a dude who has opposable skillets attached to his arms. Blocking was always going to be the issue for a nominal tight end who spent most of his high school career lining up outside, and even then it was simply a matter of size rather than willingness; Bunting posted separate highlight film of his blocking on his Hudl page. Now that he's in the range of plausible weights for a D-I tight end I'm expecting him to be the kind of matchup nightmare the Harbaughfense thrives on.

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[Upchurch]

Seth: Brian wrote in HTTV that James Ross III had plateaued from the incisive freshman we were so excited about. One implication of being a base nickel with Peppers as a strongside slot space monster is that lifts a linebacker. Or did last year, cutting heavily into Ross's snaps. I find this sufficient underratement to justify defining him as a "surprise" star on this year's defense.

The loss of snaps to nickels may not be such a big deal this year, depending on how much of the Florida defense is ported to the new platform. There Durkin loved a lean, mean attack piece. His SAM last year was Neiron Ball, now with the Raiders. For Florida Ball was a Ross-like object consistently deployed as field side LB, whether that was technically MLB, or a nickel, a meat-raw version of the aggressive safety in the other slot. Given Michigan's uncertain DE depth, that surfeit of 30 (three DL) fronts would be a welcome wrinkle in Ann Arbor, drawing Ross back into the lineup instead of an end.

I also think he's still a better player than Bolden—that gap seems to narrow when Bolden faces Michigan's own offense because knowing the plays lets him match the effect of Ross's intuitiveness. Ross came on later last year as Michigan left him in as a hybrid spacebacker, and while that job is now Peppers's, any configuration that takes Ross off the field seems worse than the +Ross option. Add a bit of havoc from the aggressive stuff and sharing a side with Peppers and Taco, and there's plenty of opportunity for Ross to build his NFL highlight reel this year.

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Brian: My surprise contributor this year is Dennis Norflee—dammit.

My surprise contributor this year is Delano Hill. He is officially a backup at safety, but in practice my hunch is that we see an awful lot of him. Jabrill Peppers is all-time nickel and he's going to be at or near the LOS at all times. Michigan faces a number of spread teams; Hill will be a de facto starter against them. He will also play extensively in regular manball games, because those also feature lots of passing downs—especially against a run defense that should be very good. He will  play, a lot.

When he does Michigan will have a very fast, hopefully instinctive safety. Marcus Ray has been pumping him up as the best guy there, and he's a dude who knows safety play. I've been impressed in limited snippets so far as well; the bet here is that he eats into linebacker snaps on the regular.

Comments

Brian Griese

June 25th, 2015 at 4:20 PM ^

I'll say Drake Harris gets healthy and becomes the teams #1 WR this fall.  Based on crootin' I know him becoming a #1 WR wouldn't be a surprise, but I think given the injuries, his weight (or lack thereof, in this case), and the fact it's still early in his career I would call it a surprise if it were to happen this fall.  I think he can zip up the depth chart IF healthy. 

Hail-Storm

June 25th, 2015 at 4:30 PM ^

In a suprise twist to Harbaugh MANBALL (Harball or ManBaugh?) will be the smallest guy on the field making splashes in a loaded backfield. A speedster that will hide behind the much improved line and burst through holes.

Space Coyote

June 25th, 2015 at 4:41 PM ^

They aren't going to pull Bolden over Morgan. Morgan shows instincts in zone drops, but he's probably the most limited athletically of the group (despite his awesome one handed INT a couple years back).

I like Morgan, I think he's a solid MIKE, I also think he's the worst of the starting three (Bolden, Morgan, Ross) but probably the most consistent. Ross's problem is still playing in tight areas, he's great at attacking blockers in space and shedding them, not so great when he has limited room to work in; that makes him a completely different player than the other two ILBs.

Space Coyote

June 25th, 2015 at 4:46 PM ^

But I really expect Bolden to take the step he needs to from being an inconsistent player (flashing both high and low) last year to being more at his potential. From all accounts he's a football nut, he wants to learn everything about the game and loves being in the film room (similar to Ryan). I think it clicks for him.

If people don't want to count him, then I'll go with Mario (assuming he's healthy). Taco seems like the obvious choice in this role, because his ceiling is higher, but I think Mario is going to surprise some people with just how consistent he plays at the DE position; it won't be flashy, but I think he'll prove that he isn't the weakness on this defense either.

On offense, I'll say Chesson, because the others have been said (Hill or Morris would have an argument here)

Jack Be Nimble

June 25th, 2015 at 5:57 PM ^

I'm going to go out on a limb here.  We know Harbaugh loves using large players to create mismatches on offense.  I remember one play with the 49ers where he placed a 250 pound FB in the slot against a corner on the goal line. 

Shallman is a redshirt sophomore now, and I could see him becoming a useful piece on 3rd down and in goal line situations. He is not a traditional 3rd down back, but he does seem like the kind of guy Harbaugh might use on 3rd and long. He has the size and strength to be an excellent blocker (and I assume Coach Wheatley will have helped bring his technique up to par). He also has good hands and good speed for a guy his size. He could stay in and block quite effectively but also leak out into the flat and bowl over a corner for 6-7 yards.  In short yardage, he could be an effective runner or try to outmuscle a corner for a short pass.

I certainly don't think Shallman is going to be an Offensive MVP but I could see him picking up 300 All Purpose Yards and a few touchdowns over the course of the season to go along with a few crushing blocks. That would be a nice breakout.

dragonchild

June 25th, 2015 at 6:44 PM ^

My guess isn't a surprise about the player, as how.  I think Chesson will shake the earth -- others area already predicting that -- but not as a receiver.  As a gunner.  He's already called Chesson the Destroyer around here for his ability to pancake DBs and PRs, and that was with atrocious special teams coaching.

If he also molds into a deep threat I'd be ecstatic, but Baxter is a phenomenal special teams coach with an eye-popping resume.  He will make the most of Chesson's ability.  The result is frankly difficult for me to imagine.  This is a wild guess like everyone else's, but for all his football clout Baxter's been kind of working under the radar so when he turns Chesson into a super-saiyan gunner, no one will see it coming.

funkifyfl

June 26th, 2015 at 9:31 AM ^

The OL is due for a huge improvement and that's recognizing that they were pretty solid last year. As a group they will have a lot of starts under their belts, executing a simplified scheme, being part of a more well-rounded offense, and better coaching will really let their talent shine. In particular, I will be looking at Braden to take the next step and become just an absolute nightmare for defensive lines.

Richard75

June 26th, 2015 at 11:01 AM ^

Ojemudia
Not to pick on Alex, but why do people keep saying Ojemudia is too small? He's 252. Marcus Rush played last year at 251. Shilique Calhoun was 256. Randy Gregory was a star at 240.
It's funny how we want U-M to get with the times, yet we too are stuck in some antiquated mindsets. Maybe the manner in which we use our DEs requires them to be bigger, or there's an issue with the strength program, but 240-250 isn't too small these days. Just look around.



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